Best Of

Starmer exit in 2026 now shortened to 1.54:1, which is the shortest I've seen it. That's easy money if you're convinced he's going this year. (I'm not. I think those odds are about right.)

I think they're too short personally and have added to my currently massively offside lay, and will take more if 1.35 trades (looking v possible). Still, squeaky bum.

This is a huge story in the political bubble but it doesn't feel to me to have as much cut through to the real world as Boris did.

There is also an amusing irony irony that some of the markets will atm be being driven by someone much like Mandelson leaking what's going on amongst MPs to traders...

Didn’t we hear news yesterday that it had severe cut through on focus groups?

The Epstein angle, which brought down Andrew, surely makes it quite high profile.

At a politically focussed focus group, sure.

But when Boris's various scandals were going on, it was a topic of conversation amongst normies in the office. Pub bores would make jokes about it. I'm just not feeling the same sense of the country at large carying atm.

Maybe I'm just talking my position, idk

It's being joked about by the not-very-politically-engaged where I work. I'd say people are even crosser about the arrogance and entitlement on display here than they were about Boris.

It’s the money that cuts through most. How can you get a free 75K gift and not remember anything about it? That’s what can cut through into actual votes. Provided we can connect Mandelson to the Labour government, not let them say he was rogue and it’s not their fault.

Remember the old rule, Tory scandals are about sex, Labour scandals are about money.

Whilst I agree Starmer is in trouble, I am not sure the Pincher analogy holds water.

With Pincher, it wasn't simply a failure of vetting but a situation where Johnson lied about what he knew and had colleagues unwittingly sent onto the media to propogate that lie. This was also the latest in a series of incidents where Johnson had been utterly unreliable.

That may yet turn out to be the case for Starmer, but I don't think we are there - it was a foolish appointment given Mandelson's track record, but I don't think the anger towards Mandelson for having misled Starmer is synthetic.

For that reason, whilst there is definitely a competence issue there and it's increasingly hard to see a very long term future for Starmer, I don't really see it playing out as it did in the final days of Johnson.

I also find the Rayner surge a little odd. She has a lot going for her, but she isn't exactly Ms Clean, the candidate of unimpeachable personal integrity.

She's the furthest they've got from the old boy's club attitudes that led to where we are.

I don’t think Angela Rayner is a traitor. I DO believe that about Starmer and those around him - Hermer, Sands, Powell. They loathe Britain and seek to harm Britons

It’s that basic

Rayner might well be an economic disaster but fuck it, how does that change anything. I don’t think Rayner will deliberately enact policies that are solely designed to harm the country she governs because she despises it

It’s a pretty low bar but I reckon she’ll clear it

Oh God, not this from you again: "she couldn't we worse".

She absolutely could be fucking worse.

I'm terrified of Rayner becoming PM.

Eh, it'll probably be fine.

Then again, I said that about Truss, so I don't know shit.

People say it every time they hate someone and want a change. We heard it with Boris, Truss, Sunak and now Starmer.

Do we ever learn?

No, because we're too blinded by hatred for the incumbent.

Key life lessons

1) Things can always get worse

2) They will take longer than you think

3) It will get worse if you at pick at it

I am absolutely open to being proved wrong but I think that this is being substantially overplayed. I don't see this being fatal for Starmer. He showed poor judgment again. Well, there's a shocker. But I am not seeing anyone in Labour that is any better placed. I am comfortable with my answer in the competition that Starmer will be PM at the end of the year.

Him going in '26 can be laid at 1.49 on Betfair
Though that would be a gamble that he survives this debacle, May results, Reeves next budget and as-yet unknown debacles to come in '26. which might be pushing it.

I don't see him falling at this hurdle. Surviving 2026 remains a whole different story. I think the crunch time will come in May when about 200 Labour MPs realise they are going to become unemployed if things stay as they are.

200 Labour MPs already know full well they are losing at the next election.

It may even be nearer to 300.

They have nothing to lose.

I am absolutely open to being proved wrong but I think that this is being substantially overplayed. I don't see this being fatal for Starmer. He showed poor judgment again. Well, there's a shocker. But I am not seeing anyone in Labour that is any better placed. I am comfortable with my answer in the competition that Starmer will be PM at the end of the year.

Him going in '26 can be laid at 1.49 on Betfair
Though that would be a gamble that he survives this debacle, May results, Reeves next budget and as-yet unknown debacles to come in '26. which might be pushing it.

I don't see him falling at this hurdle. Surviving 2026 remains a whole different story. I think the crunch time will come in May when about 200 Labour MPs realise they are going to become unemployed if things stay as they are.

200 Labour MPs already know full well they are losing at the next election.

It may even be nearer to 300.

They have nothing to lose.

If they all sit tight and Starmer stays they have a full term at the trough.

If he goes then that's not clear.

Whilst I agree Starmer is in trouble, I am not sure the Pincher analogy holds water.

With Pincher, it wasn't simply a failure of vetting but a situation where Johnson lied about what he knew and had colleagues unwittingly sent onto the media to propogate that lie. This was also the latest in a series of incidents where Johnson had been utterly unreliable.

That may yet turn out to be the case for Starmer, but I don't think we are there - it was a foolish appointment given Mandelson's track record, but I don't think the anger towards Mandelson for having misled Starmer is synthetic.

For that reason, whilst there is definitely a competence issue there and it's increasingly hard to see a very long term future for Starmer, I don't really see it playing out as it did in the final days of Johnson.

I also find the Rayner surge a little odd. She has a lot going for her, but she isn't exactly Ms Clean, the candidate of unimpeachable personal integrity.

She's the furthest they've got from the old boy's club attitudes that led to where we are.

I don’t think Angela Rayner is a traitor. I DO believe that about Starmer and those around him - Hermer, Sands, Powell. They loathe Britain and seek to harm Britons

It’s that basic

Rayner might well be an economic disaster but fuck it, how does that change anything. I don’t think Rayner will deliberately enact policies that are solely designed to harm the country she governs because she despises it

It’s a pretty low bar but I reckon she’ll clear it

Oh God, not this from you again: "she couldn't we worse".

She absolutely could be fucking worse.

I'm terrified of Rayner becoming PM.

Eh, it'll probably be fine.

Then again, I said that about Truss, so I don't know shit.

People say it every time they hate someone and want a change. We heard it with Boris, Truss, Sunak and now Starmer.

Do we ever learn?

No, because we're too blinded by hatred for the incumbent.

Whilst I agree Starmer is in trouble, I am not sure the Pincher analogy holds water.

With Pincher, it wasn't simply a failure of vetting but a situation where Johnson lied about what he knew and had colleagues unwittingly sent onto the media to propogate that lie. This was also the latest in a series of incidents where Johnson had been utterly unreliable.

That may yet turn out to be the case for Starmer, but I don't think we are there - it was a foolish appointment given Mandelson's track record, but I don't think the anger towards Mandelson for having misled Starmer is synthetic.

For that reason, whilst there is definitely a competence issue there and it's increasingly hard to see a very long term future for Starmer, I don't really see it playing out as it did in the final days of Johnson.

I also find the Rayner surge a little odd. She has a lot going for her, but she isn't exactly Ms Clean, the candidate of unimpeachable personal integrity.

She's the furthest they've got from the old boy's club attitudes that led to where we are.

I don’t think Angela Rayner is a traitor. I DO believe that about Starmer and those around him - Hermer, Sands, Powell. They loathe Britain and seek to harm Britons

It’s that basic

Rayner might well be an economic disaster but fuck it, how does that change anything. I don’t think Rayner will deliberately enact policies that are solely designed to harm the country she governs because she despises it

It’s a pretty low bar but I reckon she’ll clear it

Oh God, not this from you again: "she couldn't we worse".

She absolutely could be fucking worse.

I'm terrified of Rayner becoming PM.