Best Of

Significant movements in next PM market - Streeting drifting and Miliband tightening.

Rayner 4.1
Streeting 6.6
Miliband 8.4
Mahmood 12
(Farage 12)
Cooper 21
Powell 22
Burnham 25
Carns 26

I think he's good value there. Why is Burnham even considered when he's not in MP and has no route of getting into the Commons?

Rayner would be Labours Liz Truss. Are they really going to go down that avenue? Wes is too connected to Mandelson and anyway he might not even be an MP in 2029 unless he does a chicken run.

Miliband makes sense as Labour likes him and he's not associated with Mandelson. Although I think he'll be a total disaste, that's where I suspect Labour will go next...

I assume his association with Mandleson and Starmerism is knocking Streeting's perceived chances?

In this market I've simply focused on laying Farage, Johnson and Rupert Lowe, when the odds offered have been favourable. It's put me happily green on all the Labour choices, so provided Starmer doesn't call a surprise election things are looking good....

Some hoo hah about Alton Towers changing the rules for their disability access pass on Facebook. The extensive comments give a clue as to why the country is in the state it's in wrt schools, disability benefits etc imo

There are varied takes on it. I'd probably call it as as PR Cockup with poor processes.

(I'd say they could start lending out shooting sticks for a deposit.)

ITVx: Heather Giles has Early Onset Parkinsons disease and pre-booked the passes to Alton Towers but was told on the day there were none left.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2024-09-02/i-just-had-to-suffer-disabled-woman-had-to-crawl-along-queue-at-theme-park

GB News: (Who forced them?) Alton Towers forced to ban people with 'anxiety' from using disability queue-jump pass
https://www.gbnews.com/news/alton-towers-anxiety-disability-queue-jump-pass

Telegraph: Theme park changes rules after complaints from visitors with mobility problems over longer ‘fast lane’ queues
Full article: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/0482a1089407faa9

The wider issue is that society in general has started to make accommodations for ‘disability’, and that these accommodations are being gamed by bad actors, because those making the accommodations have little way of checking eligibility for them.

So we see 40% of kids at Stanford are ‘disabled’, becuase that means they get extra time in tests and single room accommodation, in the UK we see a huge rise in kids taking taxi as to school, or people claiming sickness benefits for mental health issues.

These things all started off with good intent, but have led to perverse outcomes and huge financial costs to both government and companies dealing with the public. It’s also very difficult to row back, because of the risk of lawsuits and public accusations of discrimination.

Alton Towers would be better off offering wheelchairs on demand for disabled customers, and not offering a pass to jump queues for rides.

“Al” refers to Al Carns… an outside chance but interesting to see him included. He is popular among the new intake of MPs, I am told.

I do believe I said it first

(Admittedly I stole idea from a whatsapp group of very switched on people but that is what it is)

What has he done politically to promote such speculation ?

something something marines something something

Yes, there are a number of ex military in the Commons. Plenty of them are uninspiring.

Other than he tweets a lot, and is a junior defence minister, what's his USP ?

I've no idea, I'm not advocating for him. Just taking the credit if it happens. If it doesn't, I'll never mention it again. The TSE gambit

Whilst I agree Starmer is in trouble, I am not sure the Pincher analogy holds water.

With Pincher, it wasn't simply a failure of vetting but a situation where Johnson lied about what he knew and had colleagues unwittingly sent onto the media to propogate that lie. This was also the latest in a series of incidents where Johnson had been utterly unreliable.

That may yet turn out to be the case for Starmer, but I don't think we are there - it was a foolish appointment given Mandelson's track record, but I don't think the anger towards Mandelson for having misled Starmer is synthetic.

For that reason, whilst there is definitely a competence issue there and it's increasingly hard to see a very long term future for Starmer, I don't really see it playing out as it did in the final days of Johnson.

I also find the Rayner surge a little odd. She has a lot going for her, but she isn't exactly Ms Clean, the candidate of unimpeachable personal integrity.

She's the furthest they've got from the old boy's club attitudes that led to where we are.

I don’t think Angela Rayner is a traitor. I DO believe that about Starmer and those around him - Hermer, Sands, Powell. They loathe Britain and seek to harm Britons

It’s that basic

Rayner might well be an economic disaster but fuck it, how does that change anything. I don’t think Rayner will deliberately enact policies that are solely designed to harm the country she governs because she despises it

It’s a pretty low bar but I reckon she’ll clear it

Oh God, not this from you again: "she couldn't we worse".

She absolutely could be fucking worse.

I'm terrified of Rayner becoming PM.

The Tories demonstrated well - more than once - that a change of PM absolutely can make things worse.

There’s no serious question to which Angela Rayner is the answer. She can’t even run her own house without screwing up the finances, let alone the country.