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Re: This is looking like a coronation and a new PM by July – politicalbetting.com
In reality they all look at all the models. The Met Office lean mainly on ECMWF and their own MetO model plus high Res UKV, but they pay plenty of attention to other models, particularly the French Arome ultra high Res.The BBC announced a year ago that they were going back to the Met Office - though it’s hard to find confirmation that the changeover has completed.Remember that the BBC forecast is ultimately derived from a global US model, while the Met Office forecast uses a much higher resolution UK model (nested within a European model, nested within a global model).I see the Met Office has just upped its heat warning for Wednesday and Thursday to red. They're forecasting 39C here in the midlands.Yet the BBC says 35 degrees in B'ham as the peak temperature. That's a significant difference.
The Met Office global model is also better than the US global model.
Most of the time you would expect the Met Office forecast to be more accurate.
The US GFS model is the most ubiquitous despite being only the 3rd or 4th best global model because, being military funded, it provides loads of data to the public for free.
MelonB
3
Re: This is looking like a coronation and a new PM by July – politicalbetting.com
Do have to laugh. Had the Tories not become ever more outrageous in (a) binning the PM at will and (b) insisting the replacement was a "new government" this would have been so much harder for LabourIt was always going to be easy. They have a majority of around 150 in a Parliamentary system. That's the way it works. Anyone claiming there should be an election is being merely performative.
DavidL
2
Re: This is looking like a coronation and a new PM by July – politicalbetting.com
@rolandmcs.bsky.socialNot quite forecast but prescient all the same
Imagine predicting today's events in July 2024. Now that would have been a take.
https://x.com/michaellcrick/status/2068983803935064567?s=61
Taz
1
This is looking like a coronation and a new PM by July – politicalbetting.com
This is looking like a coronation and a new PM by July – politicalbetting.com
BREAKING:It's over. It looks like a full-blown coronation for Andy Burnham is now very much on the cardsWes Streeting, the former health secretary, has folded in behind Andy Burnham. 'Having spoken at length to Andy in recent days I'm convinced that there is a place for those… https://t.co/fSrS8cgEuk
System
1
Re: This is looking like a coronation and a new PM by July – politicalbetting.com
So, Streeting never had the nominations.Nope as plenty here such as Rochdale, Eek and Horse said.
Taz
2
Re: This is looking like a coronation and a new PM by July – politicalbetting.com
I take it the fact he was a grade A disaster is the reason you mention itI am feeling optimistic about the UK and the future.. The first Cambridge CoE since Kwasi Kwarteng.
Cambridge men as PM and Chancellor.
Trying to find a market on Burnham to win more seats than Starmer in 2024.
eek
1
Re: This is looking like a coronation and a new PM by July – politicalbetting.com
Do have to laugh. Had the Tories not become ever more outrageous in (a) binning the PM at will and (b) insisting the replacement was a "new government" this would have been so much harder for Labour
Re: This is looking like a coronation and a new PM by July – politicalbetting.com
So, Streeting never had the nominations.
Re: This is looking like a coronation and a new PM by July – politicalbetting.com
No other arrangement makes much sense.
The substantive argument for getting rid of Starmer (made by Streeting himself, and numerous others) was his failure to get on and deliver stuff. It would be a nonsense taking three months out to have an argument about who is going to take over the job, given that it's pretty obvious the answer will be Burnham anyway.
Let's just hope that Burnham actually has some semblance of a plan.
The substantive argument for getting rid of Starmer (made by Streeting himself, and numerous others) was his failure to get on and deliver stuff. It would be a nonsense taking three months out to have an argument about who is going to take over the job, given that it's pretty obvious the answer will be Burnham anyway.
Let's just hope that Burnham actually has some semblance of a plan.
Nigelb
5
Re: This is looking like a coronation and a new PM by July – politicalbetting.com
See also Nigel Farage (partners have been Irish, German and now French)Burnhams wife has a great name . Marie-France van Heel !Typical leftie - British women not good enough for him.*
Sounds very regal .
*Joke. I'm sad I need to label this as a joke, but some one here...
eek
2