Best Of

Jesus, Farage ratings are tanking

The beginning of the rot was taking in all those already-despised already-failed top Tories whilst still trying to claim he offered a fresh alternative to the ‘uniparty’, the middle of the rot was trying to trouser that £5 million in secret; so we just need to wait to see how the final rot will set in.

Lots of ways the rot set in. Here are two I think are significant. Voters are getting the hang of tactical voting. This was visible at Runcorn last year when Reform were on the rise but only won by 6 votes, with all parties but Reform and Labour squeezed. It has grown. It will be significant at the next election.

The second, I think, is that over time Farage and the far right come across as unkind about some very ordinary people. Lots of people who don't approve of the degree to which migration has occurred would still be horrified at unkindness to anyone who lives an OK life in this country. And Reform can distance itself from Restore and Robinson and so on as much as it likes, but to most people the far right is a unified blob who, like Reform, use images of people of colour as a scare tactic and includes some vile people who scare nice people of the wrong colour. Brits don't like that.

It's the blokery.

And the explanation "that's how working class men are."
Not around working class women.
Got them to turn out in droves round here.

I think turnout is key, and younger women are motivated to turn out.

I think that is why the anti-reform vote was underestimated in Makerfield, Gorton and Denton and in Caerphilly. Changes in turnout are hard for the pollsters to predict.

How generalisable it is outside byelections is one of the keys to the next GE.

Was women of all ages motivated round here.
My Mam's 84 and her mates weren't impressed at all with Kenyon.

Oh dear.

Revealed: Brexit voting areas have seen faster growth in foreign workers since EU referendum

Guardian investigation also finds same areas experienced relative decline over same period

Leave-voting areas have seen faster relative growth in foreign workers since the Brexit referendum, a Guardian investigation has found.

Data analysis suggests that the decade since the Brexit vote may not have matched the expectations of many Leave supporters, showing their local areas have also become relatively more deprived over the same period.

Migration increased across the UK after Brexit, especially of those arriving on health and care visas, peaking at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023. Net migration has since cratered, and continues to fall as people’s visas expire.

Analysis of government Pay As You Earn data shows that between 2016 and the end of 2024, non-UK workers grew fastest in percentage terms in stronger Leave-voting areas, largely because they had previously made up a smaller share of the workforce.

Wigan, where the Makerfield byelection has taken place, follows the pattern seen in many strong Leave-voting areas. Less than 5% of payrolled employees were from outside the UK in June 2016. That had increased to just under 10% in December 2024 – more than doubling in relative terms.

Across the country, the proportion of foreign workers increased by just 40% over that period, rather than doubling.

Remain-voting areas – often larger cities – still have the largest numbers of non-UK workers. While they have seen bigger rises in absolute numbers, it is Brexit strongholds that have seen faster relative growth of their foreign workforce.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/20/leave-voting-areas-foreign-workers-decade-since-brexit-referendum

The recent NIESR report came to a similar conclusion. London has done OK since Brexit; the regions (with the exception of NI) got shafted.

Car production in Sunderland is half of what it was a decade ago, despite government bungs.

Remania was always going to do better than Leaverstan, because it was the economically successful areas of the country that voted Remain.

Car production will be doubling next year though as Chery take over the other line.

The issue in Sunderland is naff cars more than anything else..

UK car production is at a 73 year low, and in percentage terms a sharper drop than in the EU.

Next year the new EU rules of origin make UK exports more challenging, and there are the Trump tariffs too.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clymp4ynldlo?app-referrer=deep-link

It's cold outside. Still, Remain voting London is doing alright at least.

Without the decade long distraction of Brexit, it's even possible that we might have worked out a slightly better response to Chinese competition.

Jesus, Farage ratings are tanking

The beginning of the rot was taking in all those already-despised already-failed top Tories whilst still trying to claim he offered a fresh alternative to the ‘uniparty’, the middle of the rot was trying to trouser that £5 million in secret; so we just need to wait to see how the final rot will set in.

Lots of ways the rot set in. Here are two I think are significant. Voters are getting the hang of tactical voting. This was visible at Runcorn last year when Reform were on the rise but only won by 6 votes, with all parties but Reform and Labour squeezed. It has grown. It will be significant at the next election.

The second, I think, is that over time Farage and the far right come across as unkind about some very ordinary people. Lots of people who don't approve of the degree to which migration has occurred would still be horrified at unkindness to anyone who lives an OK life in this country. And Reform can distance itself from Restore and Robinson and so on as much as it likes, but to most people the far right is a unified blob who, like Reform, use images of people of colour as a scare tactic and includes some vile people who scare nice people of the wrong colour. Brits don't like that.

Another Brexit bonus.

Spain tears down barriers at Gibraltar border

Checkpoints removed for first time in centuries to create frictionless boundary under post-Brexit deal

Spanish workmen tore down checkpoints on the border between Spain and Gibraltar for the first time in more than 300 years as part of a post-Brexit deal.

Machine operators removed police auxiliary buildings from Spain’s side of the border crossing in preparation for the introduction of a frictionless land border with no checks on July 15.

The new Brexit deal erases the land border between the British overseas territory and Spain, enabling the free flow of some 15,000 workers a day, and moves it to Gibraltar’s airport.

Britons arriving at the airport will have to show their passports to Gibraltar officials and then Spanish guards, who will have the final say on entry to the British territory. The same will apply to arrivals from sea.

Footage showed workmen dismantling buildings and taking down checkpoints on the Spanish side on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum on Tuesday.

On the Gibraltar side, scaffolding has been erected around canopies that are set to be removed, with the dismantling process to begin in the coming days.

The Royal Gibraltar Police booths for checks will also disappear under the deal that effectively makes the Rock part of the EU’s Schengen border-free space.

The wire fence that crosses Gibraltar’s isthmus to mark the border will eventually be removed completely.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/20/spain-tears-down-barriers-at-gibraltar-border/

Oh dear.

Revealed: Brexit voting areas have seen faster growth in foreign workers since EU referendum

Guardian investigation also finds same areas experienced relative decline over same period

Leave-voting areas have seen faster relative growth in foreign workers since the Brexit referendum, a Guardian investigation has found.

Data analysis suggests that the decade since the Brexit vote may not have matched the expectations of many Leave supporters, showing their local areas have also become relatively more deprived over the same period.

Migration increased across the UK after Brexit, especially of those arriving on health and care visas, peaking at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023. Net migration has since cratered, and continues to fall as people’s visas expire.

Analysis of government Pay As You Earn data shows that between 2016 and the end of 2024, non-UK workers grew fastest in percentage terms in stronger Leave-voting areas, largely because they had previously made up a smaller share of the workforce.

Wigan, where the Makerfield byelection has taken place, follows the pattern seen in many strong Leave-voting areas. Less than 5% of payrolled employees were from outside the UK in June 2016. That had increased to just under 10% in December 2024 – more than doubling in relative terms.

Across the country, the proportion of foreign workers increased by just 40% over that period, rather than doubling.

Remain-voting areas – often larger cities – still have the largest numbers of non-UK workers. While they have seen bigger rises in absolute numbers, it is Brexit strongholds that have seen faster relative growth of their foreign workforce.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/20/leave-voting-areas-foreign-workers-decade-since-brexit-referendum

The recent NIESR report came to a similar conclusion. London has done OK since Brexit; the regions (with the exception of NI) got shafted.

NI has the slight advantage of both being inside and outside the EU..

Precisely.
It's a pretty clear practical demonstration of the cost of the Brexit deal to the rest of the country.

Oh dear.

Revealed: Brexit voting areas have seen faster growth in foreign workers since EU referendum

Guardian investigation also finds same areas experienced relative decline over same period

Leave-voting areas have seen faster relative growth in foreign workers since the Brexit referendum, a Guardian investigation has found.

Data analysis suggests that the decade since the Brexit vote may not have matched the expectations of many Leave supporters, showing their local areas have also become relatively more deprived over the same period.

Migration increased across the UK after Brexit, especially of those arriving on health and care visas, peaking at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023. Net migration has since cratered, and continues to fall as people’s visas expire.

Analysis of government Pay As You Earn data shows that between 2016 and the end of 2024, non-UK workers grew fastest in percentage terms in stronger Leave-voting areas, largely because they had previously made up a smaller share of the workforce.

Wigan, where the Makerfield byelection has taken place, follows the pattern seen in many strong Leave-voting areas. Less than 5% of payrolled employees were from outside the UK in June 2016. That had increased to just under 10% in December 2024 – more than doubling in relative terms.

Across the country, the proportion of foreign workers increased by just 40% over that period, rather than doubling.

Remain-voting areas – often larger cities – still have the largest numbers of non-UK workers. While they have seen bigger rises in absolute numbers, it is Brexit strongholds that have seen faster relative growth of their foreign workforce.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/20/leave-voting-areas-foreign-workers-decade-since-brexit-referendum

The recent NIESR report came to a similar conclusion. London has done OK since Brexit; the regions (with the exception of NI) got shafted.

NI has the slight advantage of both being inside and outside the EU..