Best Of

I absolutely expect there will be no free midterms. He can’t.

The cost of free midterms would be high for him.

They can’t even hold Trump Beach, so we know they will be absolutely smashed in a free election.

So why bother? All of the people voting against them are terrorists and traitors, the people organising these elections are antifa, the coup can’t be allowed to take place.

Plenty of options available. State of Emergency thanks to war, state of emergency thanks to civil unrest, send in ICE and the good ol boys with rifles to shoot anyone who looks black gay Latino or liberal, force all elections to be federal - or any combination of the above you fancy.

A state of emergency in the US doesn't cancel elections.

The most likely vite-suppressing intervention to me is ICE and the border police given free rein to do sweeps outside polling stations.

Thanks for the header, I agree with your conclusion, Democrat House but Republican Senate looks almost nailed on.

Which is a shame as the Senate is the far more important chamber being the one needed for eg appointments. Trump having 2 more years of a compliant Senate is concerning.

So... that's what I thought, but I'm beginning to think I might be wrong.

There are -give or take- about five Republican Senate seats in play. The Democrats need to win four (and not lose any of their own) to capture the Senate.

Two should be relatively easy pickups.

Ms Collins in Maine hasn't had to run in a midterm with an unpopular Republican in the White House since... well... never. She's been a Senator since 1996 (30 years!). The only time she's been up for election at a midtern with a Republican President was way back in 2002, when George W Bush was riding high on the back of 9/11. She is now the second most unpopular Senator in the country with her constituents. It's a Blue State. It's the midterms. She's toast. Probably by double digits. (Oh yes, and the Democrats chose Janet Mills, the popular ex-Governor.)

North Carolina. Open seat. Only narrowly won by the Republicans in 2024. Very strong, moderate, Democratic candidate. Narrow but relatively comfortable win - 52:47.

Then it gets harder.

But I think they pickup Alaska. Mary Peltola won the House of Representatives seat at the trough of Biden midterm unpopularity. Dan Sullivan is the third most unpopular Senator in the US with only 39% of his constituents giving him a positive rating. Peltola is leading in basically all the polls. Unless the economy suddenly revives then Dan Sullivan is more likely than not to be an ex-Senator. I'd make the Dems the slight favorites here.

Now there are two possibles. (And two wildcard.)

Ohio. It's Sherrod Brown. I'm not a fan. But it's an open seat (it's JD Vance's seat). And Brown won in 2018 at the first Trump midterms. And Trump is less popular now than then. Ohio is also getting massacred by high oil prices. Polymarket makes him favorite. Will he win? It's an uphill battle, but if the economy worsens, then he's in with a good shot.

Texas. Yes it always flatters to decieve. But the Dems have chosen a moderate Pastor, while the Republicans look like they're going with Ken Paxton. Also: you know what group the Republicans are getting massacred by? Hispanics. And you know what Texas is full of? Hispanics. It's far from impossible that the Dems win Texas.

(An aside: the Republicans gerrymandering in Texas might well lose them seats.)

Here are the wildcards

Iowa. If Jodi Ernst had run again, I think the Dems could have won. They probably won't. But It could be closer than people expect.

Florida. Holy shit did you see the special election results last week? If Mar-al-Largo is falling, then so is Florida. I mean the midterms will be better for Trump, right? Right?

Why not add a Russian revolution to the geopolitical turmoil?

https://x.com/brave_romania/status/2038302634667393028

Russian Pro-Kremlin Blogger Warns of a “New February 1917”

A well-known Russian nationalist blogger and strong supporter of the war in Ukraine, Maxim Kalashnikov (also known as a “Z-patriot”), has issued a strong warning about growing instability inside Russia.

In his recent statements, Kalashnikov says Russia is on the edge of a new February 1917, referring to the revolution that overthrew the Russian Tsar and led to the collapse of the Russian Empire.

He warns that “something bad is happening” and that the country faces “dramatic events” that could threaten its current form.

He's not the only one saying this. Russia has had a series of economic and military setbacks in the past few days that are having a serious impact on the stability of the Putinist state

Something has shifted, in this conflict, since the start of the year.

People will endure almost any level of hardship, if they see a war as existential (eg Spain in 1808-14, Vietnam in 1946-75, the USSR in 1941-45). But, the breaking point comes much sooner, when they are fighting simply for the greater glory of the dictator. This an entirely pointless war of choice.

And, higher oil and gas prices won’t help Putin that much given Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil installations, the damage that inflation will do to the rest of Russia’s economy, and the growing shortage of Russian manpower.