Best Of

I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy

Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms

So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable

There is a third way out

Trump 'retires due to ill health'

That won't help either because the current outcome is Iran accelerating their nuclear weapons programme and then we have a bunch of radical Islamists with nukes.

I fear that a ground invasion is going to be the only way out.

I think nuclear proliferation around the world is inevitable: it's the only way to defend yourself against the Putins, the Netanyahus and the Trumps.

This is not a good scenario.

Good night for the Tories in local by elections last night, held 2 seats and gained 1 with tactical anti Reform votes.

In Vale of White Horse and Sevenoaks LDs tactically voting Tory to beat Reform outweighted Tories who went Reform

Stanford (Vale of White Horse) Council By-Election Result:

🌳 CON: 45.9% (+2.5)
🔶 LDM: 27.2% (-17.0)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (New)
🌍 GRN: 7.9% (-4.5)
🌹 LAB: 1.0% (New)

Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat.
Changes w/ 2023.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037326771582849408?s=20

Halstead, Knockholt & Badgers Mount (Sevenoaks) Council By-Election Result:

🌳 CON: 44.2% (-20.7)
➡️ RFM: 29.8% (New)
🔶 LDM: 20.9% (-14.2)
🌍 GRN: 5.1% (New)

Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.

https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20

In N Lincolnshore Labour tactical votes for the Tories outweighed Tory losses to Reform

Axholme Central (North Lincolnshire) Council By-Election Result:

🌳 CON: 49.2% (-19.6)
➡️ RFM: 35.5% (New)
🌍 GRN: 8.3% (New)
🌹 LAB: 5.5% (-25.7)
🔶 LDM: 1.5% (New)

Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037328889333133632?s=20

Don't tell @Brixian59 !

The Barack Obama presidential library is, quite literally, the ugliest building ever constructed

I don’t believe it looked good, even in the renders. Perhaps it’s meant to capture his presidency: promising much, but lamentable in execution

https://x.com/blairkamin/status/2037189825577587044?s=46

Hideous.

Isn't it something

If you sincerely sat down and tried to design the ugliest building in the history of architecture, you'd be hard pushed to beat that. It is so bad it has gone beyond so-bad-it-is-good into a deeper realm of Satanic and demonical ugliness, designed to demoralise by its mere presence

How the F did Obama sign off on it? What happened?

Maybe he did it to ensure Trump wouldn’t co-opt it and rename it the Trump Obama Library. If it’s not neo classical with gold bits he won’t be interested.

Good night for the Tories in local by elections last night, held 2 seats and gained 1 with tactical anti Reform votes.

In Vale of White Horse and Sevenoaks LDs tactically voting Tory to beat Reform outweighted Tories who went Reform

Stanford (Vale of White Horse) Council By-Election Result:

🌳 CON: 45.9% (+2.5)
🔶 LDM: 27.2% (-17.0)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (New)
🌍 GRN: 7.9% (-4.5)
🌹 LAB: 1.0% (New)

Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat.
Changes w/ 2023.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037326771582849408?s=20

Halstead, Knockholt & Badgers Mount (Sevenoaks) Council By-Election Result:

🌳 CON: 44.2% (-20.7)
➡️ RFM: 29.8% (New)
🔶 LDM: 20.9% (-14.2)
🌍 GRN: 5.1% (New)

Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.

https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037327448862339391?s=20

In N Lincolnshore Labour tactical votes for the Tories outweighed Tory losses to Reform

Axholme Central (North Lincolnshire) Council By-Election Result:

🌳 CON: 49.2% (-19.6)
➡️ RFM: 35.5% (New)
🌍 GRN: 8.3% (New)
🌹 LAB: 5.5% (-25.7)
🔶 LDM: 1.5% (New)

Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2037328889333133632?s=20

@NickPalmer has observed in the past that people choose their vote much more via vibe than by totting up a balance sheet of policies and cooly comparing to other parties.

Indeed. Two points to support that

• The recent movement by @RochdalePioneers from the LDs, based on the personalities of Cons
  
• The frequently-noted failure of "deliverism": the belief that if a set of popular policies is enacted successfully then the voter will reward them. Biden thought that and it didn't work. Starmer (well, those who write his thoughts for him: I've just given up totally) also "thinks" that and given the polls that isn't working either.
  

Not sure that Rochdale has moved from the libdems at all.

I haven't.

Fair enough. It's too late to change the text, but consider it changed from this: "from the LDs, based on the personalities of Cons" to this: "towards the Cons, based on their personalities"

It's also worth pointing out that the current government isn't doing "deliverism" - Starmer, himself, made a speech about how he can't get things done because of systemic inertia.

The Green Party does not match British values.

They hate NATO.

Are you Paul Mason? You’re almost as fruitlessly repetitive and have been on a similar journey from Jezzaism to whatever jellyfish entity Starmer embodies. Don”t think he’s ever said he’d vote Reform to stymy the Greens yet, but who knows how the kaleidoscope will shake out.

That's a bit unfair. I don't think Horse was ever Jezzaist. He's always favoured Labour overall but has always been willing to criticise them and/or praise other parties. I'd say he'd been pretty consistent.

He was also a massive lockdown proponent who now believes we should never have locked down. I recall endless "Lockdown NOW" posts.

You are being extremely disingenuous.

I supported lockdown very strongly and would have supported more.

But this was on the basis we were protecting the elderly and there would be - I thought - some rebalancing after.

In fact things went even more towards them. On that basis it is now something I oppose because it was completely unfair. All that money spent on some elderly people and young people get mental health crisis not paid for, education debt, massive taxes. And elderly get another bung.

If I’d known it would have resulted like this, I’d have been against the whole thing.

Now with the knowledge I have, I’d have let them die. End of story.

My morality does not require people to be grateful if I save their life. Satisfaction in the deed itself.

The deed did not justify the end result.

The triple lock and the question of whether to sacrifice the elderly (and many others) to Covid are entirely separate issues. One should not influence the other.