Best Of

The media hysteria against Starmer on this war is bonkers.

He’s kept us out of this stupid war and that’s all that matters. We’d be objectively worse off if we had literally any other leader.

What this war and Starmer's response have highlighted, to the genuine surprise of many pundits, is the pathetic state of our armed forces after decades of Tory defence cuts.

Decades actually involves the coalition government and previous labour ones

It also applies across Europe, because everyone believed in the peace dividend and NATO always being there funded largely by the US

The UK is not alone in this problem but it cannot be ignored and defence spending will be needed in the many billions

The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.

Not sure that Trump is a loser here.

A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).

Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.

He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.

It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again

In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...

The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.

Not sure that Trump is a loser here.

A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).

Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.

He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.

It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again

Is it really a winnable war ?
How do you know that ?

Up there with the FIFA Peace Prize.

Mike Johnson: Tonight we have created a new award. We are going to do something we've never done before. We will honor him with a new award. He is the first ever recipient of the America first award. That is this beautiful golden statue here, appropriate for the golden era.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2036951988043473179

Is it a calf ?

How do these people sleep at night or look their grandkids in the eye?

One of my American friends who is more of a Romney GOPer says his parents overlook Trump's flaws all because he pretty much ended abortion.

Yes, I can understand that.

*legal* and safe abortion has been severely restricted in several states. We know from bitter experience that this is not the same as "ending abortion".

Apologies, it was probably my comment that messed up the blockquotes for you.

Shit lads, we’ve lost Tzipi!

‘ I did not expect to find myself nodding along to Tzipi Livni, Israel's former, and hawkish, Foreign Minister. Yet here we are. She is right on this: A State that treats the rule of law as optional, and human rights as conditional on race or nationality, irreparably corrodes itself. The decades-long project of violently subjugating Palestinians has not only harmed its victims. It has consumed Israel, from within.’

https://x.com/epshtainitay/status/2036847103448867111?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Someone had a gun to her head. She's poison.

Yep, I’d have assumed that she’d be completely on board with the Bibi project. However it perhaps connects to all those supine GOP pols in the US; when your belief system gives you what you thought you wanted and results in less than favourable outcomes (and heaven forbid threatens your own prosperity and wellbeing), maybe you discover moralty and a spine. Israel is not a safe haven for Jews, it is less popular internationally than it has ever been and its military supremacy depends on a senile, capricious POTUS, all that might give any but the most Zionist ethno fascist pause for thought.

Price Watch: Travelled from south Devon to York, then Leeds then on to Lincs yesterday.

Cheapest diesel was Aldi in Leeds at 165.9p. Most expensive was one of the motorway service stations at 198.9p

Mostly c.175p

Maybe Trump can take out motorway service stations.

Greedy buggers.

I thought that Reeves' response to this economic shock was to talk about Truss (again) and then claim she was going after profit gougers (as if the increase in costs were not real and the problem she should be looking to address)?

She needs to temporarily reduce fuel duty, paid for by the additional VAT, to stop the country grinding to a halt. And if that causes Ed to resign that should be regarded as a bonus by all sane people.

We’ve been repeatedly told by PBers that fuel use is inelastic; so why would cutting fuel duty have an effect on consumption? And what taxes would you raise to make up for it?

The kind of short-sighted policy is why we have an enormous debt and why firms and households haven’t shifted away from fossil fuels, leaving us incredibly vulnerable to this kind of disaster.

If we’re going to cut any taxes it should be VAT on business/industrial electricity. Drop it from 20% to 5%.

How would that save companies money - the VAT I pay on my company electricity bill is a deduction against the VAT I pay HMRC.

The only people who would be impacted are very small firms who sell to the general public and aren’t VAT registered or use turnover based flat rate VAT

.

The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.

Not sure that Trump is a loser here.

A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).

Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.

He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.

It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again

Good morning

It is not a winnable war by anyone

It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve

For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy

This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit

It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression

And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse

This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.

Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.

The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.

Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.

And how does America do that? Specifically.

By escorting shipping through Hormuz.

The method which has been used for centuries to protect shipping.

Any Iranian attacks are defended against and responded to.

Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War. It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Earnest_Will

Operation Prime Chance (August 1987 – June 1989) was a United States Special Operations Command operation intended to protect U.S.-flagged oil tankers from Iranian attack during the Iran–Iraq War. The operation took place roughly at the same time as Operation Earnest Will (July 1987 – September 1988), the largely naval effort to escort the tankers through the Persian Gulf. The operation was begun after the mining of the U.S.-flagged Kuwaiti oil tanker Bridgeton.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Prime_Chance

Operation Nimble Archer was the 19 October 1987 attack on two Iranian oil platforms in the Persian Gulf by United States Navy forces. The attack was a response to Iran's missile attack on MV Sea Isle City, a reflagged Kuwaiti oil tanker at anchor off Kuwait, which had occurred three days earlier. The action occurred during Operation Earnest Will, the effort to protect Kuwaiti shipping amid the Iran–Iraq War.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Nimble_Archer

Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier. It took place during the US presidency of Ronald Reagan and the rule of Supreme Leader of Iran Ruhollah Khomeini.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis

Did they have optical fibre FPV drones then? Life and military technology has moved on since then.

.

The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.

Not sure that Trump is a loser here.

A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).

Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.

He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.

It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again

Good morning

It is not a winnable war by anyone

It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve

For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy

This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit

It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression

And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse

This is the key point - the regime is stronger than ever. Yes, a generation of leaders were killed. But they already knew that was a possibility and created an organisational structure which cannot be decapitated.

Here and now it looks like Iran has won. America cannot defeat it without engaging in a war which will cripple the regional economy and with it create an international energy crisis which makes the 70s look like a holiday.

The USA defeats the Iranian regime by ensuring shipping can move through Hormuz.

Achieve that and what can the Iranian regime do then apart from make powerless threats and fire a few drones at UAE and Kuwait.

So achieve the impossible and the war is won. You do know that it’s the fear of losing a $2bn LNG tanker that is stopping ships from using the strait

Hormuz was kept open despite Iranian threats and attacks in the 1980s.

That required accepting risks and costs and sometimes casualties.

The same applies now.

Both Trump and the Gulf Arabs have no shortage of money, let them spend it now.

Gas has made that much harder; as has the availability of mass produced drones, so the example of the 80s isn't 100% relevant.

But the real fear lurking in the background is an Iranian version of Israel's Sampson strategy - except that in this case all it would require is multiple attacks on the Qatar gas production facilities.