Best Of

Price Watch: Travelled from south Devon to York, then Leeds then on to Lincs yesterday.

Cheapest diesel was Aldi in Leeds at 165.9p. Most expensive was one of the motorway service stations at 198.9p

Mostly c.175p

I shot a video decrying the smug EV activists saying ha ha fuel prices.

Everything we buy and eat has diseasal in the supply chain. So the price is going to go shooting up.

Thankfully I am not a smug EV driver.

I shot it sat on the drive with Tesla over one shoulder and petrol Mini over the other. Yes, one is cheaper than the other. But always was. Its the impact of the war on the price of *everything* that people are whining about. And running an EV only mitigates part of that.

A lot of anger in clickbait world about Cadbury. People have just noticed the decreasing cocoa levels. They're blaming the greedy company and saying thats why they're full of Palm Oil. Which totally ignores the gargantuan inflation in the price of cocoa beans.

And nobody yet understands what the impact of the war will be on food just from fertiliser prices alone. OK, farmers and the NFU do, but normals don't.

Even if the war stops today - and it won't, the price impact will be BAD. But it won't stop today.

Tell you what, I'll write a header.

Consider higher cocoa prices a form of reparations to Ghana...

The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.

Not sure that Trump is a loser here.

A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).

Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.

He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.

It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again

Good morning

It is not a winnable war by anyone

It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve

For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy

This war has entrenched the regime and enabled it to blackmail ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz which on Marine Traffic is showing no ships in transit

It has created instability across the middle east and plunged the world into recession verging on depression

And left the regime stronger with all the horrors for those you describe worse

The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.

Not sure that Trump is a loser here.

A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).

Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.

He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.

It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again

In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...

The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion

A curious definition of win there!

After 20 years of bloodshed we scuttled out, leaving the country to the Taliban.

The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.

Not sure that Trump is a loser here.

A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).

Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.

He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.

It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again

In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...

The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion

It wasn't won was it

I sometimes think that WWII has skewed our view of what winning a war actually is. Most historical wars didn't end in unconditional surrender. They ended when one side had achieved enough of their objectives to make carrying on not worth the cost and then offering the other side peace terms that were liveable if not comfortable.

@jaylyall.bsky.social‬

Russia sending improved Geran-2 drones to Iran, along with intel and humanitarian aid designed to shore up regime. Also looks like they're delivering man-portable anti-aircraft Verba systems

https://bsky.app/profile/jaylyall.bsky.social/post/3mhw3gxqsts2i

This confuses The Donald.

Easier for him not to believe that it's happening I would guess. Is anyone in the administration going to make a big thing about it to force him to confront it? I would doubt it.

This is the sort of thing that makes decision-making so bad in an authoritarian state, and it's one reason why we should think of the US in those terms.

See also the daily "cool videos of explosions" breifing that the Donissimo gets each morning;

Each day since the start of the war in Iran, U.S. military officials compile a video update for President Donald Trump that shows video of the biggest, most successful strikes on Iranian targets over the previous 48 hours, three current U.S. officials and a former U.S. official said. The daily montage typically runs for about two minutes, sometimes longer, the officials said. One described each daily video as a series of clips of “stuff blowing up.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trumps-daily-iran-video-briefing-fuels-concerns-hes-not-getting-a-full-picture-on-the-war/

Yes, I was thinking of that too. Trump is someone who doesn't want to be troubled by uncomfortable truth. We're in a situation where his best anchor on reality might be Fox News updates on the market reaction.

I think Trump's judgement is astonishingly bad, but he's also making decisions on the basis of bad information, because he's trained people to lie to him, to not give him bad news.

The obituary can't come soon enough.

Is he aware just how bad his polling is now?

More and more Americans seem to be seeing through the charlatan, with the mid terms not that far away now. Once again tonight his aggregate net approval rating as measured by Nate Silver has reached a record low, this time of -16.6%.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin

I think they’ve finally clocked him.

The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.

Not sure that Trump is a loser here.

A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).

Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.

He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.

It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again

Good morning

It is not a winnable war by anyone

It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve

For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy

The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.

Not sure that Trump is a loser here.

A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).

Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.

He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.

It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again

Good morning

It is not a winnable war by anyone

It is a tragedy beyond belief that has sent an earthquake through relationships with countries throughout the west and middle east with no known outcomes and will take decades to resolve

For the homosexuals and regime opponents hanged and tortured and the women oppressed and the Iranians in exile removing the regime would certainly not be a tragedy

This to me is the biggest tragedy of all. Iran at grassroots was turning inexorably westwards. Probably still is. Targeted intervention against some regime goons and assets during the massacres earlier this year might even have helped the revolution and weakened the regime’s grip. But this Ill conceived balls-up of a war has not only buggered up the global economy, it’s put the IRGC in de facto power in Iran and cemented the misery of its population.

The grifting, the illegal appointments, the abuse of the Constitution and the law, the absurdly inept prosecutions of Comey and James, the threats to Canada and Greenland, the abuse and gratuitous insults of allies, the abandonment of Ukraine, we were not exactly short of reasons to hold Trump in contempt before this but the bombing of Iran is a whole other level of bad. This is going to destroy his Presidency. It serves him right but the price we are all paying for it is severe and is going to get worse.

Not sure that Trump is a loser here.

A possible prognosis is that Iranians will flood the border with Türkiye and onto Europe. Another immigration crisis. At the same time, the oil price will stay very high with all the economic effects that will have worldwide. Oil companies and Middle Eastern potentates will be rolling in even more money (as well as those consulting/investing for them).

Then there are the vulture capitalists who will make a ton of money either by buying distressed assets or taking strategic positions in companies. I mentioned a year of so ago that Berkshire Hathaway stored up €350bn in cash when Trump won. Perhaps they knew bargains would be plentiful early on in this presidency.

He most certainly is the loser. Firstly, if he is to get the Straits open again he is going to have to accept some humiliating terms. The Iranians are talking about reparations. Alternatively, he can throw the US into an unwinnable war (see Brett Devereaux, it doesn't require 7500 words of the blindingly obvious). The US (and the rest of the world) is going to suffer a major economic shock. The GOP is going to be slaughtered in the Mid Terms which may result in his possible impeachment. Yes, there is plenty of pain to spread around, some of it is coming our way, but Trump is going to be destroyed by this.

It is a winnable war but it requires ground troops to bring about regime change. Only a small window to do it though, as you say if the Democrats take Congress in November they will almost certainly try and impeach Trump again

In what way is it a winnable war? The world spent 40+ years trying to tame Afghanistan and that was a far poorer smaller country...

The Afghanistan war was won in 2001 when the Taliban were removed and a few years later when Bin Laden was killed. The mistake was Biden withdrawing US forces which let the Taliban back not the invasion

You've memory-holed an awful lot of history there, HY.