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Re: What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
I work adjacent to construction and April was very quiet but May and June have been manicThat must be noisy.
Re: What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
What amazes me about all this is that there wasn't a plan in a drawer on how to scale up production rapidly. Frankly Patriot is useless if it's not possible to produce enough interceptor missiles to shoot down China's capability to produce missiles.aI read yesterday that Patriot missile production is 50-60 per month, but each missile takes two years. It’s like they’re building aeroplanes. They can’t ramp up quickly, despite demand for thousands of them from the Mid East and Ukraine.Well, if your military capability depends on manufacturing 10,000 drones a day, *to be expended within the week* , you are going to need 40,000 electric motors a day to be able to fightSovereign capacity doesn't mean autarky, but it does mean having sufficient capacity not to be held to ransom, as (for example) China has been able to do with rare earths (and might be about to do with solar) where they have an 80 or 90% market share.A sovereign capability on making small *cheap* electric motors is probably not sexy, though.Well, yes.Aside from the issues with drones as a concept, there isa small fly in the ointment.Presumably we can improve our military capabilities significantly by just buying a metric-tonne of whatever the latest Ukrainian drone technology is at the end of this war?Not really.
The drones Ukraine uses this month are improvements on those they used last month.
It's all in a state of rapid evolution, somewhat analogous to the use of airplanes in WWI, except much larger scale and subject much more rapid change.
It's the domestic manufacturing capacity which we would do with building.
The cheap components for drones - motors etc - all come from China, or similar.
So if something goes wrong with imports, no drones.
So if you want a sovereign drone capability, you need either a vast stockpile of all the likely bits. Or a manufacturing capability for them.
Certainly Europe should have that capacity, and we should aim to be part of that.
The reality is that there isn't a vast amount the UK can do, purely on its own, in the technologies and industry essential to the future.
But there's absolutely no reason Europe should not have sovereign capacity in everything from raw materials mining and production to advanced chip manufacturing and reusable space launch.
Or *cheap* compact, low power computer boards.
Or *cheap* small, light video cameras.
Edit: On space launch, the biggest problem is political. For decades, Government policy has been to support ESA/Ariane, and make sure that no UK firm attempts to compete with them. Variously small launcher schemes are given some minor support, but any attempt look at even the medium class is er... shot down.
This is very different from most modern military planning - where even the ammunition is expensive and slow to make. Ammunition production is always the first target for cuts, because it isn't an obvious political point. And people say "If we have the weapon system, the ammunition can always be bought later".
Re: What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
What happens to refugees if no country takes them? Do we drown them at sea? Shoot them?LOL, it just gets more and more ridiculous. As I have said before the only way to address this is to remove the right to asylum and to make it invitation only. Sooner or later all of Western Europe are going to go down that route. It would be nice if we did before electing the likes of Farage to power.Er, not at the moment.Up to 90% of Ireland’s asylum seekers may have entered from Northern Ireland, data showsSo, rather than us complaining about illegal migration from Eire they have much more to complain about in terms of illegal migration from Ulster. And of course those complaining will presumably acknowledge that the UK is a safe country.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/12/ireland-asylum-seekers-northern-land-border
...The UK Home Office revealed overnight that in the past year it had apprehended more than 900 “immigration offenders” abusing the open land border.
Data from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) in Dublin, however, showed 16,600 people had sought asylum at an airport or port. Significant numbers in that cohort were thought to have travelled from Great Britain to Ireland via a flight or ferry to Belfast.
The CTA has come under renewed scrutiny this week after a knife attack in Belfast on Monday. The suspect, Hadi Alodid, a 30-year-old Sudanese refugee, has been charged with attempted murder.
The attack triggered two nights of violence after it emerged Alodid had travelled from Sudan to Paris and then Dublin before taking a bus to Belfast where he claimed asylum in 2023. Police reinforcements were sent from Great Britain to Northern Ireland on Thursday.
Before 2019, the number of people seeking asylum in Ireland was relatively small, about 5,000, commensurate with the experience of a small country on the farthest outreaches of Europe...
..It was also expecting to revive a post-Brexit returns agreement that has so far seen only one asylum seeker returned to Ireland from the UK.
The deal agreed in 2020 was delayed after Ireland’s high court ruled that the UK’s policy on sending asylum seekers to Rwanda meant it was not a legally defined “safe country”...
Re: What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
Can't recommend the Trans-Sib.I am thinking of the Trans-Canadian as an alternative. It is pretty good value for fans of endless landscapes, forests and lakesI guess that, given your location, a week looking at rows of fir trees will be unbelievably interesting.My wife and I have the Trans-Siberian Express on our lifetime bucket list. The hope is that Russia becomes a friendly country by the time we retire.Anyway, Happy Russia Day to all those that celebrate. Just having a quiet one at home at home this year.Cheers!
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTJbHvxDWIc/?hl=en
I had a great time in Russia when I was there for the World Cup and would love to go back to see some more of the sights. Being a Russophile doesn't mean being a Putinophile!
Russia's flaw is to be a country obsessed with the decline of its empire and also with its moment of glory in WW2. Very much a mirror to a certain country on the opposite end of Europe.
Sadly this looks some way off at the moment.
Pending it becoming safe, you could try driving through Finland?
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/1943649#Comment_1943649
Dura_Ace
4
Re: What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
Well he's only been a successful reforming leader of Greater Manchester for a decade, working across parties and popular with his electorate, this is true. But it beats Carns for a track record any day of the week.Less substance than Burnham.Al Carns on R4 Today this morning. two notes: Tremendously matey to the audience. No willingness to say anything that might upset any Labour MP, and referred all hard questions to the PM for that reason, so he had no interest in either untangling or cutting Labour's Gordian knots about money. Not great at appearing to answer hard questions.It look to me like naked leadership ambition. Same as Burnham but with less substance to go with it.
Not as good I had expected.
Ouch
kinabalu
1
Re: What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
I did hear from a very deflated Tory canvasser that they comfortably found more Restore voters than Tory voters.That will be the poll that Restore will point to when they get more like 2% rather than the 12% indicated?No, this poll.Showing a Reform win?First. I note that Reform’s odds for Makerfield have come in overnight.A reaction to the private poll which I am told is a kosher poll.
https://www.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/06/11/private-polling-klaxon/
Their view is the Tories ain't ever winning again until GB News and social media are banned in the UK.
Re: What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
The missile industry is next in line for the treatment that space launch got.aI read yesterday that Patriot missile production is 50-60 per month, but each missile takes two years. It’s like they’re building aeroplanes. They can’t ramp up quickly, despite demand for thousands of them from the Mid East and Ukraine.Well, if your military capability depends on manufacturing 10,000 drones a day, *to be expended within the week* , you are going to need 40,000 electric motors a day to be able to fightSovereign capacity doesn't mean autarky, but it does mean having sufficient capacity not to be held to ransom, as (for example) China has been able to do with rare earths (and might be about to do with solar) where they have an 80 or 90% market share.A sovereign capability on making small *cheap* electric motors is probably not sexy, though.Well, yes.Aside from the issues with drones as a concept, there isa small fly in the ointment.Presumably we can improve our military capabilities significantly by just buying a metric-tonne of whatever the latest Ukrainian drone technology is at the end of this war?Not really.
The drones Ukraine uses this month are improvements on those they used last month.
It's all in a state of rapid evolution, somewhat analogous to the use of airplanes in WWI, except much larger scale and subject much more rapid change.
It's the domestic manufacturing capacity which we would do with building.
The cheap components for drones - motors etc - all come from China, or similar.
So if something goes wrong with imports, no drones.
So if you want a sovereign drone capability, you need either a vast stockpile of all the likely bits. Or a manufacturing capability for them.
Certainly Europe should have that capacity, and we should aim to be part of that.
The reality is that there isn't a vast amount the UK can do, purely on its own, in the technologies and industry essential to the future.
But there's absolutely no reason Europe should not have sovereign capacity in everything from raw materials mining and production to advanced chip manufacturing and reusable space launch.
Or *cheap* compact, low power computer boards.
Or *cheap* small, light video cameras.
Edit: On space launch, the biggest problem is political. For decades, Government policy has been to support ESA/Ariane, and make sure that no UK firm attempts to compete with them. Variously small launcher schemes are given some minor support, but any attempt look at even the medium class is er... shot down.
This is very different from most modern military planning - where even the ammunition is expensive and slow to make. Ammunition production is always the first target for cuts, because it isn't an obvious political point. And people say "If we have the weapon system, the ammunition can always be bought later".
The traditional solid rocket motor manufacturers, in the US, are already squealing to Congress, because the military is placing larger and larger orders for larger and larger motor types with the new, cheaper entrants.
Re: What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
Suddenly the relentless rain stopped?I work adjacent to construction and April was very quiet but May and June have been manicDo you have any idea why?
IanB2
2
Re: What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
…
St Petersburg is still possibly my favourite city for multiple reasons. I just loved it and would love to be able to go back regularly and hope one day things are changed so it’s not problematic to go there.My wife and I have the Trans-Siberian Express on our lifetime bucket list. The hope is that Russia becomes a friendly country by the time we retire.Anyway, Happy Russia Day to all those that celebrate. Just having a quiet one at home at home this year.Cheers!
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTJbHvxDWIc/?hl=en
I had a great time in Russia when I was there for the World Cup and would love to go back to see some more of the sights. Being a Russophile doesn't mean being a Putinophile!
Russia's flaw is to be a country obsessed with the decline of its empire and also with its moment of glory in WW2. Very much a mirror to a certain country on the opposite end of Europe.
Sadly this looks some way off at the moment.
boulay
1
Re: What will this betting market look like next Friday morning? – politicalbetting.com
I am thinking of the Trans-Canadian as an alternative. It is pretty good value for fans of endless landscapes, forests and lakesI guess that, given your location, a week looking at rows of fir trees will be unbelievably interesting.My wife and I have the Trans-Siberian Express on our lifetime bucket list. The hope is that Russia becomes a friendly country by the time we retire.Anyway, Happy Russia Day to all those that celebrate. Just having a quiet one at home at home this year.Cheers!
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTJbHvxDWIc/?hl=en
I had a great time in Russia when I was there for the World Cup and would love to go back to see some more of the sights. Being a Russophile doesn't mean being a Putinophile!
Russia's flaw is to be a country obsessed with the decline of its empire and also with its moment of glory in WW2. Very much a mirror to a certain country on the opposite end of Europe.
Sadly this looks some way off at the moment.
Pending it becoming safe, you could try driving through Finland?
Foxy
1



