Best Of

Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?

Ref 23 (-2)

Lab 19 (+2)

GRN 18 (-1)

Con 17 (=)

LD 13 (-1)

I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.

Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.

Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.

If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do

A £50 charity bet that Kemi either does not face a VONC by 1st September - or if she does, she survives it.

Interested?

Yes, if the Tories are 4th in May Kemi will certainly face a VONC in my view, so I will take a bet on those terms, the Tories coming third or worse in May will have a VONC. If the Tories are second or better she won't so the bet is then void

You're in the party am I'm not. But I would have thought the pressure on her was past:
Tories have cleared out the mad, insane and stupid to Reform. You are a Better Party without those morons.
Reform are on the slide. Plot the trendline, look at the hurdles they face.
Kemi has found her rhythm - previous government a bit crap, I'm new, I'm punchy, life vs Starmer's inertia

And you want to replace her with Shithole Cleverley?

If the Tories are second to Reform in May then yes Kemi will be safe.

If Yougov is right though and the Conservatives are behind not only Reform but Labour too and even maybe the Greens I am afraid Kemi is gone and will be removed. Not only will she have failed to win back rightwing voters from Reform she will also have lost centrist swing voters to Labour, the latter the type of voters Cleverly appeals more to

What do you think Cleverly would do any different to Kemi other than take the party lower in the polls ?

Well he polls better with all voters as shown at the time of the 2024 leadership election and if the Tories are fourth as Yougov says this morning there really isn't much lower they can go Kemi hasn't already taken them

If you are using a 2024 poll then you have no case

Kemi is a gnats bollock away from losing 33% of the Tory vote in a GE that was their worst result in 100 years

She tries to out Reform as Reform lose 20% of their headline vote.

One Nation Toryism of the likes of Heseltine and Cameron would comfortably polling low to mid 20s

She has no
Brand
Identity
Policy
Vision
Plan

Everything is an argument
She is surrounded by busted flushes

The more people see of her the less they like.

She is irrelevant to the right, the left and in the centre.

Usual tripe from you

Kemi tops leaders approval and is on 84% approval with members

Kemi is not the problem, the brand is still suffering from Johnson Truss years but she has 3 years to recover the brand

Anyway you and @HYUFD seem to agree and like each other posts so that is the strangest of alliances on here

This is over optimistic. With Reform trending down, the Tories should be, but are not, the big gainers. The Greens' upward curve mirrors Reform's exactly.

Kemi is not addressing the central questions of Tory voters (I was one for nearly 50 years): Who do I vote for is I want a sane centre right party that that can actually form a coherent government with 326 seats?

Why should I vote Tory instead of Reform if I am one of their more right wing voters voters?

Who do I vote for tactically if I certainly want to stop Reform but I think the Tories can't form a government and might keep Reform in power?

Kemi has announced the end of stamp duty and farmers IT, will address student loans and wants to help the young, will address the boats and fair immigration, drill in the north sea, and above all prioritise defence

Of course the conservative brand is a problem but changing the leader who is popular amongst her mps and the membership would be an act of self harm and you do have to wonder why some lefties concentrate on attacking her if they do not see her as a threat and would like her gone

I would exclude @HYUFD because he seems fairly unique in conservatives who would prefer Cleverly for reasons beter known to himself

To be honest BigG I think lefties think Kemi makes even IDS look a terrifying threat in retrospect. At the moment the only threat she poses is to Tory MPs holding their seats

You live in little england farage land and are very much a de facto supporter of the right and of course where Cleverly is an mp

I fully expect the mps and party to reject your calls post May

I find myself somewhat balanced between @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD

I was very frustrated at being denied the opportunity to vote for James Cleverly at the time of the leadership election because the MPs ballsed things up. He would have been the best choice as LOTO not least because he looks prime ministerial, is reassuring, and would have contrasted with Farage in a positive way.

However, we are where we are, and I kinda like Kemi. She definitely has a dash of stardust and can be effective.

I cannot believe that changing the leader now would be a good idea. Party would risk being seen as a laughing stock, and I'm unconvinced that there would be any kind of Cleverly "bounce". I'm afraid we just have to keep buggerin' on (as I believe WSC once said).

Sorry if the Tories come fourth in May voters will have made their mind up on Kemi, that she has to go

You mean you have but her mps and party haven't

If the Tories are fourth in May most Tory MPs face losing their seats and will act accordingly

You are not listening to wise council on here from fellow conservatives and sensible thinking left contributors leading amongst them @NickPalmer who are agreed changing leader does not make election prospects better and in Kemi's case she has 84% member support

I am expecting a difficult May, especially in Scotland and Wales, and the biggest irony of all, the leading contender for trashing of the conservative brand is your hero Johnson !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Another difficult May? We’ve only just recovered from Theresa.

Morning all!

Just to contribute to the discussion; my eldest granddaughter, a public servant in her mid-thirties, was, until recently, a Labour voter, but she's now turning Green, as is, I think, her partner, who is in some sort of high-powered selling job.
Last time I discussed these matters with her brother and his wife, both teachers, they were Labour.

We've four more grandchildren of voting age but three of them live abroad and I wouldn't be at all surprised if the other didn't vote.

At the forthcoming County elections I, and I think Mrs C, will vote Green because we know, like and admire the work of, our current Green councillor.
Come the General, if I'm still about, if current conditions apply it'll be tactical; whoever's most likely to beat Reform, probably provided it isn't Priti Patel. If Reform have sagged badly it'll probably be LD. But it might be Labour.

Yes the Polanski Greens are basically Corbyn lite attracting the same type of voters, mainly under 40 burdened by student debt and not owning a house and feeling capitalism does not work for them and willing to give tax and spend socialism a go. They are no longer the party of posh middle class environmentalists like Jonathan Porritt.

Green voters do though have some similarity with Reform voters though in that they are less likely to be financially comfortable than average

Explain how Dura (and perhaps Foxy) fit in that analysis.

I'm a member because they are the only party that takes animal welfare seriously and that is the most important issue for me. I don't give a shit about all that spreadsheet wanker economics bollocks. Everybody is wrong about it all the time anyway.

You also get a fascinating cross section of the population in the membership...

The header is a very good description of my stepdaughter. She's been to uni, got a decent degree and is working at entry level in her chosen career in law. But the combination of a low wage and high house prices means that she won't be able to afford a place of her own for ages. A lot of her friends are in a similar position and, despite not being especially environmentally conscious, are mostly intending to vote Green. It is indeed a cry for help.

Younger people have been betrayed. The thing I find very annoying is the lecturing they’re subjected to by those who had free tuition fees , lower house prices etc .

Younger people find it almost impossible now to get on the housing ladder unless they have parental help or are in very high paying jobs.

You get the lecturing whereby they’re told they spend too much , shouldn’t go on holidays or socialise but the reality is they have lost hope because even if they did those things they’d never save enough for a deposit because each year the goalposts are widened .

I think to an extent both things can be true. I have no doubt of how hard it is to get on the housing ladder (certainly London and the South-East). Prices are high, wage growth has been poor.

But it is also true, I think, that some people do spend more than perhaps their grandparents or parents generations did. Mainly because there is more to spend it on.

Take mobile phones. Most people have mobiles (arguably its hard to function without one now). But thats a cost that I didn't have in my early twenties. Take TV streaming. Take the rise of coffee shops and meal deals. Previous generations didn't spend 10 a day on coffee from St%rbucks or Pret. So you can also save money.

But I get the issue - owning the house is so distant that you just think 'feck it, I'll have that latte with the bun'. And I'm sure I would too, if I was in their shoes.

https://x.com/elaifresh/status/2036217479295541392

holy moly Trump has been a Kharg Island Crank for FORTY YEARS:

He sketched out the first outlines in 1987, spending $94,801 to place a full- page advert in three US newspapers. Trump declared the world was "laughing" at America's leaders over the Gulf crisis triggered by the Iran-Iraq war.

As the US then escorted tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said Washington was trying to "protect ships we don't own, carrying oil we don't need, destined for allies who won't help".

Appearing a few weeks later at a New Hampshire rotary club event in 1987, Trump sneered at how the Iranian navy - "little runabouts with machine guns" — had held America to ransom. "Why couldn't we go in there and take some of their oilfields near the coast?" he asked.

The then 41-year-old businessman put it even more starkly in a 1988 interview with the Guardian: "One bullet shot at one of our men or ships, and I'd do a number on Kharg Island. I'd go in and take it."

Well he has the means now.

But he's still all talk.

Hope so. Donald Trump talking is an awful experience for everyone but it's a lot better than him actually trying to do things.

Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?

Ref 23 (-2)

Lab 19 (+2)

GRN 18 (-1)

Con 17 (=)

LD 13 (-1)

I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.

Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.

Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.

If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do

To some extent the figures can be overlooked. The reasons for the figures and the likely futures are the matters of political, power and betting interest.

The Tories problem is not the 4th place and 17%. It's that as things stand, at the next GE the are not the right answer to any sensible question.

Do you want a Right of Centre radical government without years of government failure in your record? Vote Reform.

Do you want a One Nation Tory government? Not on the menu

Do you want to ensure Reform don't govern? Vote tactically for Lab/Greeen/LD/Nat

Do you want a Reformlite bunch of confused people who may or may not keep a Reform government in power but won't tell you which and if they did you would not believe them, and have zero chance of getting power themselves? Vote Tory.

The chances therefore of a Left Of Centre government 2029 are high. (Reform government low). It is hard to say much more than that. But I expect Labour to recover a lot of ground.

Cleverly could get more anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats than Kemi is, that is pretty clear

'Tory held seats' is no use at all. There are only 116 currently. They need 210 more - 326. Among their multitude of problems is that the most obvious anti Reform tactical vote is the party of the current MP. In 404 seats that's Labour.

The header is a very good description of my stepdaughter. She's been to uni, got a decent degree and is working at entry level in her chosen career in law. But the combination of a low wage and high house prices means that she won't be able to afford a place of her own for ages. A lot of her friends are in a similar position and, despite not being especially environmentally conscious, are mostly intending to vote Green. It is indeed a cry for help.

Younger people have been betrayed. The thing I find very annoying is the lecturing they’re subjected to by those who had free tuition fees , lower house prices etc .

Younger people find it almost impossible now to get on the housing ladder unless they have parental help or are in very high paying jobs.

You get the lecturing whereby they’re told they spend too much , shouldn’t go on holidays or socialise but the reality is they have lost hope because even if they did those things they’d never save enough for a deposit because each year the goalposts are widened .

That's exactly the position I was in a few years ago when my marriage ended. To buy my wife out to give stability to get my children through school I ended up with a monstrous £350k+ interest only mortgage (from fully paid off!), and I was faced with the choice of living like a monk for 5 years but then still having a monstrous £320k+ mortgage, or live a little and have a £340k mortgage. No material difference between the two, so i chose the latter.

Young people make the same choice - can't afford to get on the property ladder whatever they do, so might as well spend any spare money on something else.

I find myself somewhat balanced between @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD

I was very frustrated at being denied the opportunity to vote for James Cleverly at the time of the leadership election because the MPs ballsed things up. He would have been the best choice as LOTO not least because he looks prime ministerial, is reassuring, and would have contrasted with Farage in a positive way.

However, we are where we are, and I kinda like Kemi. She definitely has a dash of stardust and can be effective.

I cannot believe that changing the leader now would be a good idea. Party would risk being seen as a laughing stock, and I'm unconvinced that there would be any kind of Cleverly "bounce". I'm afraid we just have to keep buggerin' on (as I believe WSC once said).

The idea that changing leaders produces a radical change in attitudes by itself is wrong. It prompts a quick think about whether the change signifies a fundamental change, and those who think it maybe does will give the party a boost for a couple of months. If it's just a change of face, they will probably fade away. That's why leadership changes tend to be close to elections, so that the shiny new leader effect hasn't worn off yet.

Which leader changes have produced a more lasting change in recent years? Blair, Cameron, Johnson, Farage, Corbyn, Polanski all changed their parties in significant (not always positive IMO) ways, and achieved a more durable increase in support, and also sharper drops when their new formula proved to have snags. Just changing the face doesn't do much (cf. Brown, Howard, Badenoch, even though I quite like all of them personally).