Best Of

Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?

Ref 23 (-2)

Lab 19 (+2)

GRN 18 (-1)

Con 17 (=)

LD 13 (-1)

I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.

Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.

Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.

If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do

To some extent the figures can be overlooked. The reasons for the figures and the likely futures are the matters of political, power and betting interest.

The Tories problem is not the 4th place and 17%. It's that as things stand, at the next GE the are not the right answer to any sensible question.

Do you want a Right of Centre radical government without years of government failure in your record? Vote Reform.

Do you want a One Nation Tory government? Not on the menu

Do you want to ensure Reform don't govern? Vote tactically for Lab/Greeen/LD/Nat

Do you want a Reformlite bunch of confused people who may or may not keep a Reform government in power but won't tell you which and if they did you would not believe them, and have zero chance of getting power themselves? Vote Tory.

The chances therefore of a Left Of Centre government 2029 are high. (Reform government low). It is hard to say much more than that. But I expect Labour to recover a lot of ground.

Cleverly could get more anti Reform tactical votes in Tory held seats than Kemi is, that is pretty clear

'Tory held seats' is no use at all. There are only 116 currently. They need 210 more - 326. Among their multitude of problems is that the most obvious anti Reform tactical vote is the party of the current MP. In 404 seats that's Labour.

The header is a very good description of my stepdaughter. She's been to uni, got a decent degree and is working at entry level in her chosen career in law. But the combination of a low wage and high house prices means that she won't be able to afford a place of her own for ages. A lot of her friends are in a similar position and, despite not being especially environmentally conscious, are mostly intending to vote Green. It is indeed a cry for help.

Younger people have been betrayed. The thing I find very annoying is the lecturing they’re subjected to by those who had free tuition fees , lower house prices etc .

Younger people find it almost impossible now to get on the housing ladder unless they have parental help or are in very high paying jobs.

You get the lecturing whereby they’re told they spend too much , shouldn’t go on holidays or socialise but the reality is they have lost hope because even if they did those things they’d never save enough for a deposit because each year the goalposts are widened .

That's exactly the position I was in a few years ago when my marriage ended. To buy my wife out to give stability to get my children through school I ended up with a monstrous £350k+ interest only mortgage (from fully paid off!), and I was faced with the choice of living like a monk for 5 years but then still having a monstrous £320k+ mortgage, or live a little and have a £340k mortgage. No material difference between the two, so i chose the latter.

Young people make the same choice - can't afford to get on the property ladder whatever they do, so might as well spend any spare money on something else.

I find myself somewhat balanced between @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD

I was very frustrated at being denied the opportunity to vote for James Cleverly at the time of the leadership election because the MPs ballsed things up. He would have been the best choice as LOTO not least because he looks prime ministerial, is reassuring, and would have contrasted with Farage in a positive way.

However, we are where we are, and I kinda like Kemi. She definitely has a dash of stardust and can be effective.

I cannot believe that changing the leader now would be a good idea. Party would risk being seen as a laughing stock, and I'm unconvinced that there would be any kind of Cleverly "bounce". I'm afraid we just have to keep buggerin' on (as I believe WSC once said).

The idea that changing leaders produces a radical change in attitudes by itself is wrong. It prompts a quick think about whether the change signifies a fundamental change, and those who think it maybe does will give the party a boost for a couple of months. If it's just a change of face, they will probably fade away. That's why leadership changes tend to be close to elections, so that the shiny new leader effect hasn't worn off yet.

Which leader changes have produced a more lasting change in recent years? Blair, Cameron, Johnson, Farage, Corbyn, Polanski all changed their parties in significant (not always positive IMO) ways, and achieved a more durable increase in support, and also sharper drops when their new formula proved to have snags. Just changing the face doesn't do much (cf. Brown, Howard, Badenoch, even though I quite like all of them personally).

Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?

Ref 23 (-2)

Lab 19 (+2)

GRN 18 (-1)

Con 17 (=)

LD 13 (-1)

I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.

Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.

Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.

If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do

To some extent the figures can be overlooked. The reasons for the figures and the likely futures are the matters of political, power and betting interest.

The Tories problem is not the 4th place and 17%. It's that as things stand, at the next GE the are not the right answer to any sensible question.

Do you want a Right of Centre radical government without years of government failure in your record? Vote Reform.

Do you want a One Nation Tory government? Not on the menu

Do you want to ensure Reform don't govern? Vote tactically for Lab/Greeen/LD/Nat

Do you want a Reformlite bunch of confused people who may or may not keep a Reform government in power but won't tell you which and if they did you would not believe them, and have zero chance of getting power themselves? Vote Tory.

The chances therefore of a Left Of Centre government 2029 are high. (Reform government low). It is hard to say much more than that. But I expect Labour to recover a lot of ground.

I agree with yor reasoning but it's even worse for the Tories - the answer at the moment to the question 'Do you want a One Nation Tory government?' is Vote Labour (as I think from previous comments, grudgingly, you still would).

Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?

Ref 23 (-2)

Lab 19 (+2)

GRN 18 (-1)

Con 17 (=)

LD 13 (-1)

I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.

Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.

Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.

If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do

A £50 charity bet that Kemi either does not face a VONC by 1st September - or if she does, she survives it.

Interested?

Yes, if the Tories are 4th in May Kemi will certainly face a VONC in my view, so I will take a bet on those terms, the Tories coming third or worse in May will have a VONC. If the Tories are second or better she won't so the bet is then void

You're in the party am I'm not. But I would have thought the pressure on her was past:
Tories have cleared out the mad, insane and stupid to Reform. You are a Better Party without those morons.
Reform are on the slide. Plot the trendline, look at the hurdles they face.
Kemi has found her rhythm - previous government a bit crap, I'm new, I'm punchy, life vs Starmer's inertia

And you want to replace her with Shithole Cleverley?

If the Tories are second to Reform in May then yes Kemi will be safe.

If Yougov is right though and the Conservatives are behind not only Reform but Labour too and even maybe the Greens I am afraid Kemi is gone and will be removed. Not only will she have failed to win back rightwing voters from Reform she will also have lost centrist swing voters to Labour, the latter the type of voters Cleverly appeals more to

What do you think Cleverly would do any different to Kemi other than take the party lower in the polls ?

Well he polls better with all voters as shown at the time of the 2024 leadership election and if the Tories are fourth as Yougov says this morning there really isn't much lower they can go Kemi hasn't already taken them

If you are using a 2024 poll then you have no case

Kemi is a gnats bollock away from losing 33% of the Tory vote in a GE that was their worst result in 100 years

She tries to out Reform as Reform lose 20% of their headline vote.

One Nation Toryism of the likes of Heseltine and Cameron would comfortably polling low to mid 20s

She has no
Brand
Identity
Policy
Vision
Plan

Everything is an argument
She is surrounded by busted flushes

The more people see of her the less they like.

She is irrelevant to the right, the left and in the centre.

Usual tripe from you

Kemi tops leaders approval and is on 84% approval with members

Kemi is not the problem, the brand is still suffering from Johnson Truss years but she has 3 years to recover the brand

Anyway you and @HYUFD seem to agree and like each other posts so that is the strangest of alliances on here

This is over optimistic. With Reform trending down, the Tories should be, but are not, the big gainers. The Greens' upward curve mirrors Reform's exactly.

Kemi is not addressing the central questions of Tory voters (I was one for nearly 50 years): Who do I vote for is I want a sane centre right party that that can actually form a coherent government with 326 seats?

Why should I vote Tory instead of Reform if I am one of their more right wing voters voters?

Who do I vote for tactically if I certainly want to stop Reform but I think the Tories can't form a government and might keep Reform in power?

Kemi has announced the end of stamp duty and farmers IT, will address student loans and wants to help the young, will address the boats and fair immigration, drill in the north sea, and above all prioritise defence

Of course the conservative brand is a problem but changing the leader who is popular amongst her mps and the membership would be an act of self harm and you do have to wonder why some lefties concentrate on attacking her if they do not see her as a threat and would like her gone

I would exclude @HYUFD because he seems fairly unique in conservatives who would prefer Cleverly for reasons beter known to himself

Thing is, she's not likely to do any of those things, is she? Becuase as things stand, she's nowhere near being on track to be PM after the next election.

That's probably for the best, given that her shopping list seems to consist of tax cuts and spending increases.

You mean spending decreasing and tax reduction generating growth

Then you have to spell out what spending, because the ideas on student fees and defence (in as much as they are ideas) are going to cost. And if you want economic activity, cutting taxes on inheritance and property are almost certainly not where to start. (A shiny sixpence, based on experience, says that any cuts in stamp duty will feed through to higher house prices in about 47 minutes.)

Stamp duty is the one tax that affects mobility and growth

Binning it is one of the ways to growth

Replacing it with LVT probably would lead to growth, just binning it or cutting it creates asset inflation that benefits the property owning classes, like PB posters and MPs.

Have we done the Tories in fourth place with YouGov?

Ref 23 (-2)

Lab 19 (+2)

GRN 18 (-1)

Con 17 (=)

LD 13 (-1)

I reckon it is the war that is behind a lot of this.

Hearing the focus groups are sympathetic to Starmer re Trump & the war.

Albeit Tories only 1% behind the Greens and only 6% separates them from top placed Reform with Yougov now.

If those are the voteshares in the NEV after the local and devolved elections in May and the Tories are 4th behind Reform, Labour and even the Greens though Kemi will be gone, there will be a VONC in her leadership from Tory MPs and she will then be replaced by Cleverly. So Kemi needs to get a better result than that, on the plus side for her Yougov have the Greens higher than most pollsters do

A £50 charity bet that Kemi either does not face a VONC by 1st September - or if she does, she survives it.

Interested?

Yes, if the Tories are 4th in May Kemi will certainly face a VONC in my view, so I will take a bet on those terms, the Tories coming third or worse in May will have a VONC. If the Tories are second or better she won't so the bet is then void

"If the Tories are second or better" - not quite the bet on offer but I certainly don't expect the Tories to be "better than second"! So I'll agree to that.

Agreed on the terms then that the Conservatives third or worse in May leads to a VONC

Which she wins!

Yes the Polanski Greens are basically Corbyn lite attracting the same type of voters, mainly under 40 burdened by student debt and not owning a house and feeling capitalism does not work for them and willing to give tax and spend socialism a go. They are no longer the party of posh middle class environmentalists like Jonathan Porritt.

Green voters do though have some similarity with Reform voters though in that they are less likely to be financially comfortable than average

Isn't the reason that Green voters don't feel like capitalism is working for them that, in many cases, it isn't particularly? Not exclusively because it's so hard to escape the rental trap, but that being a very large factor. And that, in turn being linked to a change in small-c-conservatism from "pass a better life on to the next generation/enough evolution to prevent revolution" to "après moi le déluge".

And that's just another form of nihlism- that of the powerful, rather than the powerless.

Yes they are socialist as they don't have any capital mainly

Which raises the question: why did the Tories (2010-2024) shaft the young, rather than make little capitalists out of them?

Osborne.

And it was obvious at the time - see also triple lock pensions.

So why did so many PB Tories wave the pompoms and declare Osborne a genius when I pointed out the consequences would be disastrous.

The three posh boys, Cameron, Osborne, Johnson, really trashed this country between them.

I think that's unduly lenient on Theresa May. She chose to put party over country in her response to Brexit which turned a divisive referendum campaign into a constitutional crisis and paved the way for Johnson the charlatan to become Prime Minister.

The header is a very good description of my stepdaughter. She's been to uni, got a decent degree and is working at entry level in her chosen career in law. But the combination of a low wage and high house prices means that she won't be able to afford a place of her own for ages. A lot of her friends are in a similar position and, despite not being especially environmentally conscious, are mostly intending to vote Green. It is indeed a cry for help.

My daughter is at uni and seems to be leaning Green. My 16yo son seems to favour the Lib Dems, of all things. I think he is a classical orange book style liberal.

I'm not sure about my 22 year old lad (who has finished uni and is now working in a well-paying job in London). Definitely not Reform, but I could see him voting for any of the others, and he certainly will vote.

In London he has the luxury of an opportunity to vote for Count Binface.