Best Of
Re: The challenge for the… Green parties – politicalbetting.com
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/sep/08/labour-deputy-leadership-election-contest-keir-starmer-angela-rayner-uk-politics-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-68bea8df8f08f8842fbb453f#block-68bea8df8f08f8842fbb453fThe media don’t want to talk about it but it’s clearly had an impact and it’s so obvious by just looking at the figures post Brexit .
An interesting take on small boat arrivals from a researcher into what's causing people to come here, arguing that Brexit is one of the drivers. It really is the gift that keeps on giving.

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Re: The challenge for the… Green parties – politicalbetting.com
Never heard of it! Fascinating coffee time stray googling. Even the colour is right.That is bonkers.I got onto the Stockport one last time.On Zack Polanski, he is impressively well presented but becomes questionable once the surface is scratched. Imo he's less questionable than the Reformista bigwigs, because he at least has principles rather than nihilism.I'm excited by the reference to blue pyramids, which I'm choosing to infer is a reference to the Great Pyramid of Stockport - which is where ZP went to school - but I don't fully understand it. So I expect my inference is wrong...?
On Hypnoboobs (which is a good quip) I not sure whether to look down for on him or his customers more. He was 30, and Harley Street is an epicentre of both quackery and the enablement of criminality - did not Mohammed Al Fayed have his victims pre-inspected there?
Perhaps he should have used blue pyramids?
This one is Sarah Ferguson in the early 1990s and a clairvoyant called Madame Vasso, where SF sat under a Blue Pyramid to be cleansed. Same sort of edgy stuff that highly intelligent or rich people swallow, to meet some sort of need.
A strange character, who betrayed Sarah Ferguson's confidences in a book - Isobel Oakeshott style.
My photo quota:
Short interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG0bIEX4qUI
Obit (may not be paywalled):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/1493102/Madame-Vasso.html
Still, just think how cleansed the patrons of the curry house which now inhabits the Great Pyramid of Stockport will be.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8j72jz1n3do

1
Re: The challenge for the… Green parties – politicalbetting.com
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/sep/08/labour-deputy-leadership-election-contest-keir-starmer-angela-rayner-uk-politics-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-68bea8df8f08f8842fbb453f#block-68bea8df8f08f8842fbb453f
An interesting take on small boat arrivals from a researcher into what's causing people to come here, arguing that Brexit is one of the drivers. It really is the gift that keeps on giving.
An interesting take on small boat arrivals from a researcher into what's causing people to come here, arguing that Brexit is one of the drivers. It really is the gift that keeps on giving.
Re: The challenge for the… Green parties – politicalbetting.com
Morning everyone,
By sheer coincidence Sir Keir Starmer has replaced his Scottish secretary with Douglas Alexander, head of the Labour campaign for Holyrood next year. Very ruthless move, but not unexpected to see wee Dougie back in cabinet, he was never going to sit on the back benches for 5 years.
The best way to turn Slab fortunes round in the polls is for SKS to do a better job as prime minister, I can't help but think if wee Dougie manages a Labour win at Holyrood in 2026 it would be his biggest political achievement yet.
Of all the weekend cabinet changes, I feel this is the poorest Starmer has made. He clearly didn't expect the reaction from Labour MPs it received
By sheer coincidence Sir Keir Starmer has replaced his Scottish secretary with Douglas Alexander, head of the Labour campaign for Holyrood next year. Very ruthless move, but not unexpected to see wee Dougie back in cabinet, he was never going to sit on the back benches for 5 years.
The best way to turn Slab fortunes round in the polls is for SKS to do a better job as prime minister, I can't help but think if wee Dougie manages a Labour win at Holyrood in 2026 it would be his biggest political achievement yet.
Of all the weekend cabinet changes, I feel this is the poorest Starmer has made. He clearly didn't expect the reaction from Labour MPs it received

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Re: The challenge for the… Green parties – politicalbetting.com
https://www.thetimes.com/article/05ee11d6-5104-4670-9e59-1d482dcae8da?shareToken=879bdf8fea9076e50bb16f5cf09665e5
"Pay growth across the economy fell to a near four-year low as the availability of workers rose in a cooling labour market."
Heading into a period of real terms pay contraction while inflation is still rising. Things are about to get very bumpy for the government if they don't get a handle on inflation.
"Pay growth across the economy fell to a near four-year low as the availability of workers rose in a cooling labour market."
Heading into a period of real terms pay contraction while inflation is still rising. Things are about to get very bumpy for the government if they don't get a handle on inflation.

2
Re: The challenge for the… Green parties – politicalbetting.com
The Greens are sometimes even better locally than the Lib Dens, and I've seen it in action. It's key to their growth.Let me drop in what is one of my favourite presentations. Matthew Snedker (Leader of the Green Group in Darlington) on practical politics. He was an activist who got fed up of "trying to persuade the wrong people to make the right decisions", so went into local politics to start to persuade people that he had the right idea and could help make the right decisions.
It's very good on small c institutional conservatism, and fear of even minor change.
https://youtu.be/nw_gBxUx_ss?t=621

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Re: The challenge for the… Green parties – politicalbetting.com
I very much the LibDems will go into coalition with the Tories again, after the way they were shafted in 2013-15.And just like the Tories they'd be mad to answer it.They'll be asked about coalition partners. It's the same thing.Wasn't using it as anything.Is it? It's a bit weird to use grand coalition as a stick with which to beat the Tories but not do the same to Labour or anyone else for that matter.That's a different question entirely.You reckon Labour would say they'd go in with the Tories to keep Reform out?But they wouldn't, would they?I think there is a tipping point with Reform where if enough people become aware of the crazy, it will hit support. Despite all the comparisons the UK is not quite the states yet where everything is excused dependant on one’s overall worldview (though it is skating perilously close to the edge).There multiple ways in which Reform don't form/lead the next government. The 60-65% who really don't want this need to work on them.
But I’d just let these things feed into general public discourse through osmosis: I wouldn’t, as a political party, go particularly hard on it. Just highlight it and leave it there for people to realise the nuttiness.
Being found out as nasty natured charlatans and chancers who have policies that are both contradictory and crazy, with huge silences over every really hard questions and little talent would be a start.
The next would be for other parties (the Tories have a big choice here, and look like making the wrong one) to get a lot better at centrist politics and for government to start getting better at doing its job so that tactical voting by the 60% who don't want Reform can be credible and effective.
The Tory choice? Is to say that they would rather be in coalition with Labour than with Reform.
Really? Deep down?
And anyways. That would lead to a peeling off of half of their current support.
Leaving them in single figures.
Labour won't be asked to choose between propping up a Tory government or a Reform one.
Re: The challenge for the… Green parties – politicalbetting.com
Instead of being held to account for making the boat problem worse Farage is allegedly the solution . This from the Migration Observatory
“But there’s also increasing evidence of a Brexit effect. We speak with asylum seekers now, and often they’ve claimed asylum in the EU country, sometimes been refused, but they understand that because the UK is no longer a part of the EU, and no longer party to the EU’s fingerprint database for asylum seekers, if they can get to the UK, they have another bite of the cherry and another chance to secure asylum status and remain in Europe.”
And the figures clearly show the increase in the boats as soon as the UK left the EU .
“But there’s also increasing evidence of a Brexit effect. We speak with asylum seekers now, and often they’ve claimed asylum in the EU country, sometimes been refused, but they understand that because the UK is no longer a part of the EU, and no longer party to the EU’s fingerprint database for asylum seekers, if they can get to the UK, they have another bite of the cherry and another chance to secure asylum status and remain in Europe.”
And the figures clearly show the increase in the boats as soon as the UK left the EU .

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Re: The challenge for the… Green parties – politicalbetting.com
Ok I'll touch base with you in that circumstance!It's a hypothetical. It probably won't happen. But if Ramsay does defect, happy to offer a bet then!Well there is little point continuing the discussion, we have irreconcilable views on this. Ill be happy to frame a bet around the LD % next time if Ramsay defects to the LDs or indeed a sporting bet but its not going to happen.The notional vote for the Greens going in to 2024 was also 9%. (9.3% versus the LibDems' notional 9.2%.) And yet the Greens won. They won because they hoovered up the LibDem vote and a big chunk of the Labour vote, while the Conservatives saw their vote split with a Reform UK candidate.They hold one council ward within Waveney Valley (narrowly) and never got more than 15% of the vote in the predecessor Waveney seat which was in 2010 at their height.Because Ramsay hoovered up their potential vote. If Ramsay defects and brings some of the local party with him, I think they'd be well placed to hold the seat.They lost their deposit in 2024. They wont be winning Waveney Valley any time soonDefecting to the LibDems would probably be the easiest way for him to keep his seat.The problem for the Greens is that as they move left under Polanski they will lose ex Tory seats they won in Herefordshire and like Waveney and lose the chance of taking Isle of Wight East next time. Whereas originally the Greens were solely focused on the environment and mildly Eurosceptic, even Farage voted for them in the 1989 EU Parliament elections on that basisMorning all.
On this, I have my doubts Ramsay will be able to stomach staying in a harder left Green party and it will be interesting to see if and how long he stays after his return from compassionate leave.
Id not be entirely surprised regardless of his movements to see a Green mk 2/Ecology Party emerge to try and sweep up that rural ex Tory, environmental vote.
Of course they'd be tiny like the original Ecology Party but there is obviously a space for that in politics.
The notional vote for LDs going in to 2024 was 9%, so not much vote to hoover. They arent a factor in the seat and won't be in 2029.
I think what is more likely is that all the current Green MPs stay in the party, albeit with tensions between the leaderships and the Ramsay/Chowns faction. With good local campaigns, I suspect Ramsay and Chowns can hang on, regardless of Polanski taking the party further left. But who knows what will happen in a few years time?
Im not sure Ramsay stands again if he remains a Green. He had a solid seat here in Norwich on the city Council when first elected deputy leader in 2010 but left to work in the Green Industry and then a Green charity. He doesn't seem wedded to elected political positions and if hes not keen on direction.......
Re: The challenge for the… Green parties – politicalbetting.com
That is bonkers.I got onto the Stockport one last time.On Zack Polanski, he is impressively well presented but becomes questionable once the surface is scratched. Imo he's less questionable than the Reformista bigwigs, because he at least has principles rather than nihilism.I'm excited by the reference to blue pyramids, which I'm choosing to infer is a reference to the Great Pyramid of Stockport - which is where ZP went to school - but I don't fully understand it. So I expect my inference is wrong...?
On Hypnoboobs (which is a good quip) I not sure whether to look down for on him or his customers more. He was 30, and Harley Street is an epicentre of both quackery and the enablement of criminality - did not Mohammed Al Fayed have his victims pre-inspected there?
Perhaps he should have used blue pyramids?
This one is Sarah Ferguson in the early 1990s and a clairvoyant called Madame Vasso, where SF sat under a Blue Pyramid to be cleansed. Same sort of edgy stuff that highly intelligent or rich people swallow, to meet some sort of need.
A strange character, who betrayed Sarah Ferguson's confidences in a book - Isobel Oakeshott style.
My photo quota:
Short interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG0bIEX4qUI
Obit (may not be paywalled):
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/1493102/Madame-Vasso.html
Still, just think how cleansed the patrons of the curry house which now inhabits the Great Pyramid of Stockport will be.

2