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Reform extend their voting intention lead to 10pts this week, with Labour and the Tories tied for second place. 

➡️ REF UK 30% (+1)
🌹 LAB 20% (-2)
🌳 CON 20% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
❓OTH 3% (+1)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

N = 2,087 | Fieldwork 5-9/6 | Changes w/ 1/6

Looks like Labour will need that Burnham bounce, assuming he wins Makerfield and becomes their leader

The news has all been very Reform friendly over the last week. Harry Nowak, Northern Ireland (a bit late, I guess) and terrible immigration figures of net 100,000 p a if immigration is your thang.

Hello from Belfast where the great unwashed of Loyalism have declared an evening of rioting and house clearance.

There are I'm sure quite a few with Republican communities who would like to do their own but the orthodoxy that Irish Republicans love the asylum seekers and welcome them with open arms is strong. Some very burly looking community workers keeping locals from gathering....

I will lay it out and I suspect plenty a UK city is the same. We have had a lot of inward migration last 10 years from outside EU/wider Europe and its easy to stratify into its main groups:

Indians: Often come as families, work in tech and health. Younger members of family often seen in retail. Well integrated and have set up small clusters
West Africans: not clustered, seen all the time usually on way or going from the care homes and hospitals in which they work
Filipinos: Brought specifically in for the NHS over recent years
North East African. Somali, Sudanese. Disproportionately younger male, don't seem to be as much in the working population
Middle East Arab: Some families but disproportionately younger males,

The last two groups are the asylum seekers, the former three economic and legal migrants.

I will give you one guess where the social interaction issues with the natives lie.

Our very own Kristalnacht, until rain stopped play.

Which sounds as if it disappoints you.

I will bet you supported all the concessions to the Men Of Violence and The Community Leaders for The Peace Process.

As I’ve pointed out before, this taught the Face Eating Leopards that threatening to eat faces, works.

The Community Leaders were carefully taught that representations to ministers would be ignored. A few death threats in the right place and *they* get called.

Tommy Lots Of Names formed the EDL to get the same thing. Look how he’s grown….

Feel proud - it should be a matter of celebration that education works.

The Peace Process has been very successful. What alternative approach are you suggesting should’ve been taken?

A peace process that is built on giving the gangsters whatever they want?

You can see the success on TV.

The decent politicians (such as the ones who got some Nobel Prizes for the actual peace) have been sidelined. It’s all about how close you can get to violence and pretend it’s not you. 71 people in one toilet….

It’s been very successful at creating an Acceptable Level Of Violence.

You need to understand that this success includes the riots you just saw.

The level of violence in Northern Ireland now is much, much, much lower than it was during the Troubles.

As I said, what alternative approach are you suggesting should’ve been taken? You’ve complained about the Process, but you’ve not suggested a different approach.

https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2064437272280187284

I didn’t meet anyone with a good word to say about Starmer (though a lot of people found it hard to articulate exactly why) but also a lot of doubts raised about Farage. Lowe was described more often as an anti-establishment figure. Again I found this surprising!

As Pb said at the time, Farage taking a load of Tories will I think come to be seen as a major misstep.

Look at Northern Ireland on Monday and think about who was in charge of immigration when the arrested Sudanese was given indefinite leave to remain.

Allowing Jenrick to join Reform creates a whole set of very hard to answer questions because so often it comes down to Jenrick was the person responsible for that disaster

More In Common

Reform extend their voting intention lead to 10pts this week, with Labour and the Tories tied for second place. 

➡️ REF UK 30% (+1)
🌹 LAB 20% (-2)
🌳 CON 20% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 11% (+1)
❓OTH 3% (+1)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

N = 2,087 | Fieldwork 5-9/6 | Changes w/ 1/6

This can’t be true. The PB brains trust has said Reform are in a state of decline.

Let me introduce you to the concept of a single data point.

Reform are clearly well below their peak when it comes average polling.