Best Of
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
Are we expecting about 4am declarations for Makerfield? Trying to time my power nap and fit in some exam marking.It's a TRIPE breakfast at 6 am followed by the March on Westminster.
Jarrow march style but on the WCML.
Burnham to take Tuesday's regular Cabinet meeting????
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
Are we expecting about 4am declarations for Makerfield? Trying to time my power nap and fit in some exam marking.The Mexico vs South Korea match at 0200 sounds quite competitive if you are planning an all-nighter.
Presumably the Scottish seats will be a similar time.
Foxy
1
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
Can’t run away if you were never involvedwell he didn't run away like a naughty schoolboy in the aftermath like Gove and Johnson did.I've not doubt some did but the reality is that he was so far away from the main campaign that he really didn't have a clue how it was going. Its bordering on the ridiculous that he gets much credit for the result.When I went to bed on Brexit night Farage had conceded defeat. Betfair was heading towards 100% on that news. When I got up the following morning Dimbleby said we were leaving. I bet the f***** made a killing.He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
Consituency polling supports those odds, and in G and D underestimated the Anti-Reform vote.MakerfieldAre you still of the opinion it's going to be close Andy? Your track record is very good.
Lab 1.1
Ref 11
Rest 75
Grn 1000
Con 1000
LD 10000
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.258206408
I still think comfortable win for Andy Burnham. SNP hold both in Scotland against divided opposition.
Foxy
2
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
No. Read it again. Carefully this time. I said that of all the factors listed - white, male, teacher, gay - there was only one which is a well known risk factor: being male. Not being gay.Yes but let's not ignore the sentiments behind the post."Varley's evil and graphic sexual abuse is beyond contempt. I don't believe a general extrapolation should be made because Varley was either, white, male, a teacher or gay."You raise many good points as to whether social workers did X or Y.
Well, one of those characteristics is a risk factor for crime - and particularly for sexual crimes against children: being male. His partner was also convicted of various offences. And he, Varley, was not just a teacher but safeguarding lead at his school.
That does not mean that no men should ever adopt. It should mean that those doing the due diligence need to be very very thorough in their assessment - of character, history, motivation, lifestyle, ability to look after a baby, understanding of what looking after a very young baby involves and ability to do so - ie the emotional resilience to cope with a baby's needs and helping him thrive and develop, family support, female involvement, friends, hobbies etc etc . And not just all that.
Those doing the due diligence need a sceptical investigative mind.
The adoption went through pretty quickly. How good, how extensive was the due diligence? Did they pick up his extensive viewing of seriously revolting porn? Did they ask to look at his and his partner's computer and phones? Did they take too much comfort from the fact that he was a teacher and safeguarding lead and so relied on that rather than carry out their own inquiries? This is a classic trap and one which fraudsters and wrongdoers of all types exploit: they get past one check and then never get properly checked again because everyone else relies on that one check. And was this couple really the best set of adoptive parents to be found in Oldham?
Even very intelligent people can be horrifyingly naive about offenders and offences and what stones to turn over to look for them. And very naive about the lengths deviant people like Varley and his partner will go to to satisfy their deviancy.
Remember this case when people start talking about making surrogacy even easier than it is. There are far fewer checks than with adoptions and there has already been one horrific case in the US of two men buying a surrogate baby for the purpose of sexual abuse. Babies are not commodities to be bought and sold.
My experience from interacting with them over adult social care is they are under intense time pressure as the caseload is bonkers.
Is she arguing gay men looking to adopt should be subjected to more scrutiny than straight men who are in a relationship with a woman? Because they are innately more dangerous? I suspect she is.
When doing checks, the scrutiny of the men should be very very thorough. And that applies to whether the man is straight, gay, in a relationship or single. Heterosexual men abuse children too.
It is the maleness which is the risk factor. Not the sexuality.
The sentiment behind my post was triggered by the apparent lack of effective due diligence. Because it has been my experience from the thousands of investigations I have done that, when you uncover a wrong'un, there is always a clue, usually several, many of them red flags, that the person was a wrong' un and, that for a variety of reasons these were either not spotted or, if spotted, not acted on. I will be interested to see what the Serious Case Review will show here.
And it was a private adoption agency which placed this baby with this couple, which may also be a factor. The agency is still operating. How competent and effective are they?
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
Viewcode is a statistician. 'Only statistics' was a bit of a verbal wedgieAs Oakes once said, I may be some time. Really not sure what has caused offence here....Its only statistics though...Go to your room young man, and don't come back down until you can tell me what you did wrong.
Cookie
3
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
MakerfieldUnless they're obviously having to weigh the votes for Burnham, there's got to be a big chance that rumours will push the Labour odds out at some point between now and the declaration.
Lab 1.1
Ref 11
Rest 75
Grn 1000
Con 1000
LD 10000
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.258206408
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
He absolutely did though.well he didn't run away like a naughty schoolboy in the aftermath like Gove and Johnson did.I've not doubt some did but the reality is that he was so far away from the main campaign that he really didn't have a clue how it was going. Its bordering on the ridiculous that he gets much credit for the result.When I went to bed on Brexit night Farage had conceded defeat. Betfair was heading towards 100% on that news. When I got up the following morning Dimbleby said we were leaving. I bet the f***** made a killing.He's already whinging about the role played by Lowe in their defeat. Doesn't sound very confident to me. Mind you, he was doing the same at Brexit.Am I the only non right winger on here who couldn't give a shiny one if Burnham loses? There would be a certain just deserts element to a loss.Just picture Farage's gurning mug tomorrow morning if you need help rooting for Burnham.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/nigel-farage-resigns-as-ukip-leader
It is the third time he has stepped down as the party leader, but Farage dismissed the idea of coming back again in the future and claimed standing as an MP was no longer top of his to-do list.
Speaking at a press conference in Westminster on Monday, he said: “During the referendum I said I wanted my country back … now I want my life back.”
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
https://x.com/clashreport/status/2067645799677256049I guess having tried it himself now Vance realises the truth of those words.
JD Vance blasts Ben-Gvir and Smotrich:
You’ve seen people in their system, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who’ve attacked the deal.
And I guess my response to them would be: What is your exact proposal?
You’re a country of 9 million people. You can’t just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have.
kle4
1
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
Sadly, roughly one child a week dies from Non-Accidental Injury per week. Many more are injured. It is only the more unusual cases that make the news. The vast majority are from parents and step parents.That would obviously be wrong. But, on the other hand, if being male is a recognised risk factor 2 men in a relationship would surely have a higher statistical risk. Its only statistics though. this is a recent case of murder by a female of a young child:https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-courier-advertiser-fife-edition/20260529/281745571049789Yes but let's not ignore the sentiments behind the post."Varley's evil and graphic sexual abuse is beyond contempt. I don't believe a general extrapolation should be made because Varley was either, white, male, a teacher or gay."You raise many good points as to whether social workers did X or Y.
Well, one of those characteristics is a risk factor for crime - and particularly for sexual crimes against children: being male. His partner was also convicted of various offences. And he, Varley, was not just a teacher but safeguarding lead at his school.
That does not mean that no men should ever adopt. It should mean that those doing the due diligence need to be very very thorough in their assessment - of character, history, motivation, lifestyle, ability to look after a baby, understanding of what looking after a very young baby involves and ability to do so - ie the emotional resilience to cope with a baby's needs and helping him thrive and develop, family support, female involvement, friends, hobbies etc etc . And not just all that.
Those doing the due diligence need a sceptical investigative mind.
The adoption went through pretty quickly. How good, how extensive was the due diligence? Did they pick up his extensive viewing of seriously revolting porn? Did they ask to look at his and his partner's computer and phones? Did they take too much comfort from the fact that he was a teacher and safeguarding lead and so relied on that rather than carry out their own inquiries? This is a classic trap and one which fraudsters and wrongdoers of all types exploit: they get past one check and then never get properly checked again because everyone else relies on that one check. And was this couple really the best set of adoptive parents to be found in Oldham?
Even very intelligent people can be horrifyingly naive about offenders and offences and what stones to turn over to look for them. And very naive about the lengths deviant people like Varley and his partner will go to to satisfy their deviancy.
Remember this case when people start talking about making surrogacy even easier than it is. There are far fewer checks than with adoptions and there has already been one horrific case in the US of two men buying a surrogate baby for the purpose of sexual abuse. Babies are not commodities to be bought and sold.
My experience from interacting with them over adult social care is they are under intense time pressure as the caseload is bonkers.
Is she arguing gay men looking to adopt should be subjected to more scrutiny than straight men who are in a relationship with a woman? Because they are innately more dangerous? I suspect she is.
I also recall a couple of years ago a gay female couple who got done for killing a child by abuse and neglect in Fife.
Edit, it is actually quite a bit longer ago than I remembered, 2016: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-36333032 A horrific case as bad as the current one in many respects.
Foxy
2



