Best Of

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 28% (-2)
CON: 21% (+2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
GRN: 13% (+2)
LDM: 12% (-1)
SNP: 2% (=)

Via
@Moreincommon_
13-16 Mar.
Changes w/ 6-9 Mar.

Good news for Kemi, if the local and devolved elections NEV in May is similar to that MiC she will likely survive but SKS probably won't

Based on the swing between polls in May 2022 and polls now, the implied seats in the local are as follows:

Is that just seats for this cycle or all seats?

Sorry but it's a fantasy to think that Europe can wash its hands of the crisis in Iran and the gulf.

It has the potential to wreck the global economy. Cause starvation among the world's poor. If our own economies could head south with Russia friendly politicians who want sanctions removed gaining ground. Meanwhile the main beneficiary of the war is Vladimir Putin who gets more money by the day to continue his war in Europe.

So pressure Trump to try and end the war ASAP whatever the conditions? Well do we want to be dealing with an Iranian leadership arguably even more fanatical and emboldened because they think they've seen off the great satan? That's doesn't look too inviting either.

I agree this is one of the decisions facing Europe and the answer is Yes.

For the reasons implied in your question.

How do you think Europe can stop the war?

It's all very well to say that a war isn't in our interests so there shouldn't be a war, but there is a war. Wishing it away won't change anything.

Difficult for any country to do anything until Israel consider Iran and their proxies to no longer be a threat. They are in the driving seat and don't believe Trump could persuade them from their target. So Trump's off-ramp is to get some other mug to patrol Hormuz and then blame them when it goes wrong.

Like Ukraine - Russia, it will eventually settle but at a cost

So we should support them to get Regime Change, then the threat will be gone.

It is also the right thing to do, for the Iranians.

Win/win.

You've ducked the earlier point of Trump looking for a mug. The US Navy could patrol Hormuz but declines to so as it's a kill zone. No amount of additional ships will remove the threat of dead servicemen turning up on politicians' doors. Israel and the US say they don't need help anyway and any UK help has been rejected as 'too little, too late'

Leave it to Israel as they seem to have quite a few 'spotter' moles in Iran.

What America might usefully do is provide cheap insurance for cargo vessels in the Strait. It's about money as well as missiles.

"PolliticsUK
@PolliticsUK

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

➡️ REF: 28% (-2)
🌳 CON: 21% (+2)
🌹 LAB: 20% (-2)
🟢 GRN: 13% +2)
🔶 LDEM: 12% (-1]
☑️ OTHER: 4% (+1)

From @Moreincommon_

From 13th - 16th March
Changes with 9th March"

http://x.com/PolliticsUK/status/2034189718938656857

Kemi getting a “war bounce” for last week asking the government “people are hurting with the cost of living, what are you actually doing about it.” Badenoch should have stuck with that at PMQs today, not switched to Mandelson.

The war causing huge pain to the cost of living, and the government doing little or nothing about it, has the most cut thru across all voter groups - that’s where the votes are for the Conservatives.

Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

No body is interested in Mandelson

He answered
He apologised

A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

No one is.

Panic response

Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

I think Kemi dropped the ball.

Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

Thats the point of it i think

It’s an odd way for her to do it, answering the question herself, with her belief it was the opposite of what the truth is, opposite to where the danger to Starmer is.

Nah. She dropped the ball.

Sorry but it's a fantasy to think that Europe can wash its hands of the crisis in Iran and the gulf.

It has the potential to wreck the global economy. Cause starvation among the world's poor. If our own economies could head south with Russia friendly politicians who want sanctions removed gaining ground. Meanwhile the main beneficiary of the war is Vladimir Putin who gets more money by the day to continue his war in Europe.

So pressure Trump to try and end the war ASAP whatever the conditions? Well do we want to be dealing with an Iranian leadership arguably even more fanatical and emboldened because they think they've seen off the great satan? That's doesn't look too inviting either.

I agree this is one of the decisions facing Europe and the answer is Yes.

For the reasons implied in your question.

How do you think Europe can stop the war?

It's all very well to say that a war isn't in our interests so there shouldn't be a war, but there is a war. Wishing it away won't change anything.

Difficult for any country to do anything until Israel consider Iran and their proxies to no longer be a threat. They are in the driving seat and don't believe Trump could persuade them from their target. So Trump's off-ramp is to get some other mug to patrol Hormuz and then blame them when it goes wrong.

Like Ukraine - Russia, it will eventually settle but at a cost

Not just Israel, but also the GCC states currently under attack by Iran for no reason at all.

Starmer struggled much more again when its Mandelson week. You can draw your own conclusions about why and what that means may be coming out, but it seems to be THE achilles heel

No body is interested in Mandelson

He answered
He apologised

A shame Badenoch thinks that is the only issue people are interested in

No one is.

Panic response

Kemi asked 3 times “did you speak to Mandy before appointing him” and each time Starmer did not answer the question.
Then Kemi said “the evasion all points to the fact YOU DIDN’T speak to him yourself, before appointing him”

Wait! Does it? Does evasion point to the fact he didn’t?

I thought the evasion was all pointing to the fact he had spoken to him before appointment, to be honest. That - speaking to Mandy himself and getting answer he had met with Epstein after the conviction - surely is where the damage and danger is to Starmer.

I think Kemi dropped the ball.

Stsrmer has put on record in the house that Mandelson lied to him personally.
If she gets him to admit he did not speak to him its misleading the house time.

Thats the point of it i think