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Windsor Davies latest:



WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧
@WarMonitor3
·
3h
Russian forces according to reports are being forced to withdraw on mass from positions around the Kinburn Spit south of the Dnipro river due to severe supply difficulties caused by continued Ukrainian drone strike campaigns on Southern logistical routes.

https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/2064011164040806673

This is just the start. It is highly likely by later this year that the Russians will have to withdraw from Crimea due to lack of supplies, fuel and even water. They have lost this war and it is getting worse for them by the week. Zelenskyy must have been very confident that Putin would reject his latest peace offer or he wouldn't have made it. He was right.

Withdraw from Crimea sounds wildly optimistic, consider how much territory there is just to even get to Crimea. If they could even close the landbridge (the goal of the full scale counter offensive a few years ago which failed), that would be a tremendous achievement surely, not sure that is even something they would be contemplating.

Be wary of Russia closing the drone innovation gap.

Russia cannot supply Crimea. They cannot defend Crimea. Ukraine doesn't need to capture all the land in between for the Russian position there to become untenable. Drones are in the process of changing warfare as we watch. Gathering together a force large enough to attack now is nothing short of suicidal. Supplying it is pretty much impossible. The front line is 100km deep and nothing in that territory is remotely safe. How do you fight any sort of conventional war in such circumstances?

Windsor Davies latest:



WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧
@WarMonitor3
·
3h
Russian forces according to reports are being forced to withdraw on mass from positions around the Kinburn Spit south of the Dnipro river due to severe supply difficulties caused by continued Ukrainian drone strike campaigns on Southern logistical routes.

https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/2064011164040806673

This is just the start. It is highly likely by later this year that the Russians will have to withdraw from Crimea due to lack of supplies, fuel and even water. They have lost this war and it is getting worse for them by the week. Zelenskyy must have been very confident that Putin would reject his latest peace offer or he wouldn't have made it. He was right.

And the consequences of that would do more for the popularity of Western governments than most of the actions they can take for themselves.

Success is more about right place/right time than we might want to be the case.