Best Of
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
Does Barnier speak for the EU? I thought he had retired from there.We’re Rejoining!That is interesting because while there is no groundswell to rejoin the EU, there does seem to be a consensus that Brexit was a mistake or at best a damp squib. While no-one wants to go through the whole Brexit sturm und drang again, they might respond to an EU offer of a time machine or big red reset button that will magically take us back to where we were, and perhaps that has occurred to Barnier too.
It’s inevitable.
We hold all the cards.
UK could keep special pre-Brexit terms if it rejoined EU, Michel Barnier says
Exclusive: Former chief Brexit negotiator says staying out of euro and Schengen area would be ‘perfectly possible’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/uk-could-keep-special-pre-brexit-terms-if-it-rejoined-eu-michel-barnier-says
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
It'll be a shock to punters who had the SNP as favourites until about 10pm.It would be a shock if Tories didn't winWhen did the Tories last gain a Westminster seat? Must be an age ago...Hartlepool in 2021.
Last time the Tories gained a seat in a Scottish by election though was 1948 so huge boost for Kemi if the Aberdeen South reports are correct
SNP rocked by scandal and popular MP gone
Labour deeply unpopular everywhere
Reform not that strong further north
Not LD or Green territory.
Tories have abandoned English By Elections on North thrown massive effort in to Aberdeen
Badenoch been 3 times.
If SNP held would be a big shock
Andy_JS
3
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Older pb'ers will remember the 1992 General election, when Aberdeen South was the only seat in Scotland that changed hands when it was gained by the Conservatives from Labour (if you discount the Kincardine and Deeside by election result)
DoctorG
4
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Though even if Burnham wins Makerfield that will only be a Labour hold, Aberdeen South will be a Tory gain!!!!BBC now saying the Tories claim they have won Aberdeen South and gained the seat from the SNPGet that crucial 1am-4am news lead until Makerfield comes in.
HYUFD
1
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
BBC now saying the Tories claim they have won Aberdeen South and gained the seat from the SNP
HYUFD
1
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
2024, 4th July?When was the last time we had such an important, pivotal election this close to the summer solsticeThe 1987 general election?
It's going to be light after the poll closes
11th of June.
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
BBC now saying the Tories claim they have won Aberdeen South and gained the seat from the SNPGet that crucial 1am-4am news lead until Makerfield comes in.
kle4
1
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
Ireland and Cyprus aren’t in Schengen. The case for Schengen is reduced when you’re not dealing with land borders. So I don’t think staying out of Schengen for the UK was ever going to be a big issue.We’re Rejoining!That is interesting because while there is no groundswell to rejoin the EU, there does seem to be a consensus that Brexit was a mistake or at best a damp squib. While no-one wants to go through the whole Brexit sturm und drang again, they might respond to an EU offer of a time machine or big red reset button that will magically take us back to where we were, and perhaps that has occurred to Barnier too.
It’s inevitable.
We hold all the cards.
UK could keep special pre-Brexit terms if it rejoined EU, Michel Barnier says
Exclusive: Former chief Brexit negotiator says staying out of euro and Schengen area would be ‘perfectly possible’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/uk-could-keep-special-pre-brexit-terms-if-it-rejoined-eu-michel-barnier-says
Re: Why there might not be an immediate polling boost for Labour if Burnham becomes PM
When was the last time we had such an important, pivotal election this close to the summer solsticeThe 1987 general election?
It's going to be light after the poll closes
11th of June.
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
X
Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK
Hillingdon West (Hillingdon) Countermanded Election Result:
🌳 CON: 45.1% (-10.0)
🌹 LAB: 19.6% (-14.9)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (New)
🌍 GRN: 14.7% (+4.3)
🔶 LDM: 2.6% (New)
Conservative HOLD x2.
Changes w/ 2022.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2067744387526725664
__
Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK·29m
Rayleigh West (Essex) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 35.4% (+17.5)
🔶 LDM: 29.5% (+2.9)
➡️ RFM: 24.4% (-15.3)
🌍 GRN: 5.3% (-0.8)
🙋 Ind: 2.7% (New)
🌹 LAB: 2.0% (-1.9)
🙋 Ind: 0.8% (New)
No Loc (-6.0) previous.
Conservative GAIN from Reform.
Changes w/ 2026.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2067746062530421048
Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK
Hillingdon West (Hillingdon) Countermanded Election Result:
🌳 CON: 45.1% (-10.0)
🌹 LAB: 19.6% (-14.9)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (New)
🌍 GRN: 14.7% (+4.3)
🔶 LDM: 2.6% (New)
Conservative HOLD x2.
Changes w/ 2022.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2067744387526725664
__
Election Maps UK@ElectionMapsUK·29m
Rayleigh West (Essex) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 35.4% (+17.5)
🔶 LDM: 29.5% (+2.9)
➡️ RFM: 24.4% (-15.3)
🌍 GRN: 5.3% (-0.8)
🙋 Ind: 2.7% (New)
🌹 LAB: 2.0% (-1.9)
🙋 Ind: 0.8% (New)
No Loc (-6.0) previous.
Conservative GAIN from Reform.
Changes w/ 2026.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2067746062530421048
fitalass
4