Best Of

I don’t think squeezing Restore is going to work. There were always a bunch of Reform supporters who thought Farage was a wet. Now they have a home.

If the Reform candidate was a firebrand, maybe. But he’s a damp squib.

When Reform lose, the autopsy will be down to a shite candidate.

He inspires GOTV - for his opponents.

Reform seem to have a lot of problem with shite candidates.

As does the Greens. Both their candidates for Makerfield were inept as was their local election candidates (again, same for Reform)

The insurgent parties need to professionalise its candidate selection and vetting ASAP

They are not serious parties and so they will always struggle to attract serious candidates. Sure, you can fork out cash to weed put the utter loons and dross, but the risk then is that then you have no candidates left.

Nick Palmer's constituency report suggests it might be squeaky bum time for Burnham.

I’d trust NPXMP’s informed comments absolutely.

But I can’t shake my uninformed view that Burnham will win easily.

I wouldn't. NPXMP infamously got it badly wrong in his own constituency in the run up to GE2015.

He's probably concerned about turnout. Burnham will win because he's the root to getting rid of Starmer.

And that's as far as most people's thinking will go.

Here's the thing - what do Conservatives actually want from this by-election?

IF Burnham wins, it's likely Starmer will soon be gone and there'll be a new PM in town and life may get tougher for Badenoch in the Commons, OTOH, Reform will be badly dented and that will increase the chances of the Conservatives moving back into a clear second and re-establishing themselves as the alternative "Right wing" option to Labour.

However, let's say Reform wins - Starmer stays, weakened and humiliated BUT Reform will be buoyant and look more like a Government in waiting with the Conservatives becoming less and less relevant.

Interesting times?

Good morning

Unequivocally this conservative wants Burnham to win for two main reasons:

He will almost certainly end Starmer's tenure { listening to Starmer address a tech conference this am he was more Ai than Ai, robotic and uninspiring} and at the same time stop Farage in his tracks

Yesterday, Starmer entered his comfort zone with Zelensky, Macron and Merz at no 10 in yet another pointless meeting and almost at the same time Iran and Israel recommenced throwing missiles at one another

On Burnham, I have often said I like him and he will bring to labour a charisma but also a laser focus on domestic issues and I doubt he has a clue on the international stage but if he appoints a good foreign secretary { not Starmer or Cooper} let them take the strain much like Cameron did

The Andy v Kemi show will be very interesting and I notice even Gauke is praising Kemi this morning. I do expect their interaction to be more collegiate which would be very welcome

Of course, we cannot know the future but as far as I am concerned the far right (Farage) and far left (Polanski) need to be beaten and a move to more centre policies is desirable, though not endless talk about the EU

On the other hand, as Kenyon's cv becomes better known, it's not going to help the Makerfield Misogynist.

From the New Statesman today on the Survation polling (paywall):

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2026/06/could-misogyny-decide-makerfield

Andy Burnham’s lead among Makerfield’s women is emphatic, while among men he’s neck and neck with Reform’s Robert Kenyon. But here’s the kicker: voter uncertainty is lower among women than it is among men in the poll. That’s not normal. Typically women tend to be more uncertain about their preferences in opinion polls. In voting intention surveys the world over women are more likely to answer “don’t know”. So what could be behind it?

For Reform candidate Robert Kenyon’s comments on abortion to feature so highly in a by-election campaign is unusual in mainland Britain. “Abortion is the cowardly act of murdering a defenceless baby” reads one X post. And “don’t dole out the ‘what if someone is raped by their brother’ argument” reads another, in response to someone else. These aren’t sentiments often wheeled out by a candidate at election time. It’s a fringe view, even among voters on the right. Similarly, Kenyon’s comments about Carol Vorderman have been much publicised, with Kenyon refusing to apologise for them in an appearance on Question Time on Thursday (5 June).

Kenyon's cv ought to have a big impact... but unfortunately not many Makerfield voters are going to be reading the New Statesman and none of those readers were ever likely to be voting Reform anyway.

(Just thought - shouldn't be the New Statesperson these days? ;-) )

You have totally missed the point. Reporting of Kenyon's misogyny has become widespread in the last week. The NS was just commenting on that.

e.g.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/reforms-robert-kenyon-says-i-34069336

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/makerfield-reform-candidate-robert-kenyon-34013441

Phone rings. Random mobile. I pick it up for some reason (usually leave for voicemail).

"hello its bloke calling from" company with three letters I have literally never heard of
"sorry, from who?"
He repeats. "You made an enquiry about" and then some incomprehensible garble description of some business service
"No, I didn't" and hung up

This is happening quite a lot. Random cold calls from companies whose script now makes out that we called them and made an enquiry.

Nope. Sod off.

I really hate the ones who are phoning re your recent accident. Which didn't happen. Being someone's agent is actually a fiduciary relationship requiring the upmost good faith. And they start by lying. Even if I had had an accident how insane would I have to be to use them?