Best Of

Lots of grumpy farts about this Monday morning.

We’re largely a bunch of middle aged to old white men on a form of message board that had its heyday 15-20 years ago. And it’s Monday morning. What do you expect?

Good morning

I agree that @Alanbrooke description of Cooper was unkind but then some of the comments on here about Kemi are at times even worse and it is simply unnecessary

I was involved with Cooper and her department over hips with many trips to London to discuss the pros and cons and frankly she just dld not listen

I do not think she or Miliband are labour's answer to the Starmer question but then who is ?

My wife and I are to set off shortly on our 2 day train excursion to Edinburgh so will not be posting much as we want to enjoy the journeys and ever changing scenery

May your awayday be a Heyday.

Good morning everyone.

Quite a pleasant one here, and we've found the present our younger son sent to his mother for Mothering Sunday. Left yesterday by the delivery driver outside the garage door. The lack of a bell and door knocker didn't seem to lead the chap (or chapess) to suspect it wasn't a front door.

On topic, if Starmer doesn't firmly point out to Trump that the problems in the Straits of Hormuz are all down to him and Bibi, I have little doubt that Macron or Meloni will.
So there will be a price to be paid by the USA.

Incidentally, on my Facebook page (yes, I know, sad) there's a post to the effect that significant sections of the US military are 'considering' whether Trump's orders are legal and should be obeyed.
I wonder how true that is.

At least it was left at the right address. Delivery people often leave parcels in my back yard instead of taking them up to the actual addresses which are higher flats in the block (they have front doors at the rear of the building).

If NATO countries cave to Trump’s bullying now they’ll be doing themselves major damage. We have known this administration long enough to understand that it sees agreement and compromise as weakness. It’ll encourage Trump to bully more. He needs to be told to take a running jump, ideally with some threats thrown in - to US continued use of basis, and to defence procurement. Maybe a little bit of Epstein too.

To be honest it’s this threat that makes me think - more than oil prices or sanctions - that Puton is behind this.

If he can reframe NATO as an aggressor rather than a purely defensive alliance (that it is) that is hugely valuable from a geopolitical perspective

There’s clearly a need for someone to “do something” about the straits, and it’s a global economic challenge. And apparently the US don't have the capability.

It’s somewhat disappointing that the big spending Saudi, Qatari and UAE governments with all their FDI and oil money haven’t been able to muster something. They are after all on the doorstep and it’s their economies that are most dramatically affected.

A deeply buried pipeline that cuts through the UAE to Oman, with another to Saudi.

The ultimate loading terminals protected with defensive means to shoot down all that is fired at them from some way out. That needs to be 100% guaranteed. The ultimate in layered defense.

And the destruction of any vessel that leaves Iranian harbours on the Gulf. 100% Reaper-type drone coverage of the coast along its entire length, 24/7.

Yes, it will be expensive. But cheaper than the weaponry the US has fired off in the past 15 days.

The expense isn’t the problem - the problem is what do you do in the years it takes to build said pipelines and the docks at the end that will be required to receive the oil and gas.

And the terminals at each end will make a lovely fixed target.

The learning curve the ME has gone through in the last fortnight is that it can't defend fixed points from a multitude of cheap drones. One Patriot battery is bugger all use. The Ukraine War tactics come to the Gulf.

It will be very different in even two years time. By which time, Ukrainian companies will have made a killing.

The chance that British companies had to invest in Ukranian new-tech military has just disappeared.

The GCC States are throwing money at the problem. They have money.

Great news for GCC States, also great news for Ukrainian companies receiveing billions in investment. Not so good for regular expensive Western MIC who are still thinking about the last war and not the next one.

That won't much affect the industrial collaboration agreements in place and being developed.
The gulf states are (for now) largely customers.

They are now owners. UAE just bought 30% of the Ukrainian company that makes the Flamingo cruise missiles for example. They will get the benefit of wider sales.

Yes it was a massive miss from UK industry.

Ukrainian startup defence companies have been looking for investment for the last couple of years, saying that their ability to expand was constrained by hard cash.

Then the Iranians started lobbing missiles at counties with fcuktons of hard cash, and what happened next was entirely predictable. Neutral countries all of a sudden aren’t so neutral any more.

Reminds me of when BAe sold Heckler&Koch

So strange when people say that female politicians are judged on clothes and looks in a way that male politicians aren’t. Corbyn got dogs abuse for his dress sense, including from David Cameron, Rishi Sunak’s height was mocked constantly, Boris Johnson’s weight and hair were picked apart by lefties, Farage’s teeth are ridiculed, and so on

Gordon Brown was criticised for being a stiff in the same way that Keir Starmer is for being wooden and boring; it seems to me that all politicians get stick for their image, and the fact is that it’s no different for women, why should it be?

I have no recollection of Farage's teeth ever being ridiculed.

I do the dental sledging around here and have previously laid into Johnson, Big Rish and Little Miss Angry on the subject but never the Padishah of Clacton.

I have noticed that bro is looking old beyond his years lately. I do hope he is seriously unwell.

I think it's his halitosis that's usually brought up.

Worse after a visit with Trump I imagine.

If NATO countries cave to Trump’s bullying now they’ll be doing themselves major damage. We have known this administration long enough to understand that it sees agreement and compromise as weakness. It’ll encourage Trump to bully more. He needs to be told to take a running jump, ideally with some threats thrown in - to US continued use of basis, and to defence procurement. Maybe a little bit of Epstein too.

To be honest it’s this threat that makes me think - more than oil prices or sanctions - that Puton is behind this.

If he can reframe NATO as an aggressor rather than a purely defensive alliance (that it is) that is hugely valuable from a geopolitical perspective

There’s clearly a need for someone to “do something” about the straits, and it’s a global economic challenge. And apparently the US don't have the capability.

It’s somewhat disappointing that the big spending Saudi, Qatari and UAE governments with all their FDI and oil money haven’t been able to muster something. They are after all on the doorstep and it’s their economies that are most dramatically affected.

A deeply buried pipeline that cuts through the UAE to Oman, with another to Saudi.

The ultimate loading terminals protected with defensive means to shoot down all that is fired at them from some way out. That needs to be 100% guaranteed. The ultimate in layered defense.

And the destruction of any vessel that leaves Iranian harbours on the Gulf. 100% Reaper-type drone coverage of the coast along its entire length, 24/7.

Yes, it will be expensive. But cheaper than the weaponry the US has fired off in the past 15 days.

The expense isn’t the problem - the problem is what do you do in the years it takes to build said pipelines and the docks at the end that will be required to receive the oil and gas.

And the terminals at each end will make a lovely fixed target.

The learning curve the ME has gone through in the last fortnight is that it can't defend fixed points from a multitude of cheap drones. One Patriot battery is bugger all use. The Ukraine War tactics come to the Gulf.

It will be very different in even two years time. By which time, Ukrainian companies will have made a killing.

You seem to have missed the large number of strikes by ballistic missiles. Especially those aimed at radars.

That's probably what you'd use against the oil terminals. A couple of tons of HE arriving at Mach Lots.

You certainly have to give top marks to the Iranians for their targeting of the ME radar systems. They did the job of taking them out.

Of ourse, it helped that the Russians were giving them any assistance they needed.

And still, Trump gives them a pass.

I would doubt the Iranians needed much assistance in that. The location of the radars was well known and fixed. Overwhelming defences by attacking en masse in a short period of time has been a tactic since missile warfare was invented - when Ug first threw rocks.

If NATO countries cave to Trump’s bullying now they’ll be doing themselves major damage. We have known this administration long enough to understand that it sees agreement and compromise as weakness. It’ll encourage Trump to bully more. He needs to be told to take a running jump, ideally with some threats thrown in - to US continued use of basis, and to defence procurement. Maybe a little bit of Epstein too.

I kinda feel Europeans should grasp the reality that NATO is dead, take the initiative in dissolving it themselves (and replacing it with New-NATO (all the current NATO members, minus the US, and minus Hungary/Slovakia unless they pick the right side on Ukraine v Russia), and ask the Yanks to go home.

Hungary and Slovakia are both in PESCO and therefore somewhat intertwined with rest of Europe on defence matters so it's not as simple as just kicking them both out of the group chat on WhatsApp. I also don't think the Europe That Matters (France, Germany, Spain and Italy) would be keen on pushing Hungary and Slovakia out and even further into the Russian sphere of influence just for the sake of Ukraine. Particularly if Bardella (or Zemmour or Mélenchon) win the election next year.

If Orban is reelected (which would likely require the election to be rigged), I think most if Europe would be more than happy to boot Hungary out.

So strange when people say that female politicians are judged on clothes and looks in a way that male politicians aren’t. Corbyn got dogs abuse for his dress sense, including from David Cameron, Rishi Sunak’s height was mocked constantly, Boris Johnson’s weight and hair were picked apart by lefties, Farage’s teeth are ridiculed, and so on

Gordon Brown was criticised for being a stiff in the same way that Keir Starmer is for being wooden and boring; it seems to me that all politicians get stick for their image, and the fact is that it’s no different for women, why should it be?

I have no recollection of Farage's teeth ever being ridiculed.

I do the dental sledging around here and have previously laid into Johnson, Big Rish and Little Miss Angry on the subject but never the Padishah of Clacton.

I have noticed that bro is looking old beyond his years lately. I do hope he is seriously unwell.

I think it's his halitosis that's usually brought up.

If NATO countries cave to Trump’s bullying now they’ll be doing themselves major damage. We have known this administration long enough to understand that it sees agreement and compromise as weakness. It’ll encourage Trump to bully more. He needs to be told to take a running jump, ideally with some threats thrown in - to US continued use of basis, and to defence procurement. Maybe a little bit of Epstein too.

To be honest it’s this threat that makes me think - more than oil prices or sanctions - that Puton is behind this.

If he can reframe NATO as an aggressor rather than a purely defensive alliance (that it is) that is hugely valuable from a geopolitical perspective

There’s clearly a need for someone to “do something” about the straits, and it’s a global economic challenge. And apparently the US don't have the capability.

It’s somewhat disappointing that the big spending Saudi, Qatari and UAE governments with all their FDI and oil money haven’t been able to muster something. They are after all on the doorstep and it’s their economies that are most dramatically affected.

A deeply buried pipeline that cuts through the UAE to Oman, with another to Saudi.

The ultimate loading terminals protected with defensive means to shoot down all that is fired at them from some way out. That needs to be 100% guaranteed. The ultimate in layered defense.

And the destruction of any vessel that leaves Iranian harbours on the Gulf. 100% Reaper-type drone coverage of the coast along its entire length, 24/7.

Yes, it will be expensive. But cheaper than the weaponry the US has fired off in the past 15 days.

The expense isn’t the problem - the problem is what do you do in the years it takes to build said pipelines and the docks at the end that will be required to receive the oil and gas.

And the terminals at each end will make a lovely fixed target.

The learning curve the ME has gone through in the last fortnight is that it can't defend fixed points from a multitude of cheap drones. One Patriot battery is bugger all use. The Ukraine War tactics come to the Gulf.

It will be very different in even two years time. By which time, Ukrainian companies will have made a killing.

You seem to have missed the large number of strikes by ballistic missiles. Especially those aimed at radars.

That's probably what you'd use against the oil terminals. A couple of tons of HE arriving at Mach Lots.

You certainly have to give top marks to the Iranians for their targeting of the ME radar systems. They did the job of taking them out.

Of ourse, it helped that the Russians were giving them any assistance they needed.

And still, Trump gives them a pass.

Morning all

Starting with the obvious - all politicians are ridiculed, they always have been. Go back to some of the cartoons in Punch in the 20th century and they were pretty merciless.

Indeed, it's almost a badge of honour to be ridiculed among politicians I would imagine. In the period of social media, the ridicule from those completely hostile is often as cruel, if not worst and of course being social media it's laced with misinformation, misconception or just plain lies.

I don't understand the constant unremitting hostility toward Starmer, Reeves, Badenoch, Davey, Farage or Polanski - really I don't. Among some on here, it's almost a kind of hysteria. The only theory I've got is for many of us our formative years were the 1970s and that was a polarising era and I can see why some who lived through it developed a visceral antipathy to "Labour Government" in all its forms.

As a wise man once said, that was then and this is now - it's 50 years later yet the experiences of those times still seemingly resonate.

On topic, I don't see Starmer going even if Labour lose 1000 seats in May - Major was challenged after the Conservatives lost 2000 seats in a single night (unsuccessfully). The other side is whether there's any single figure under whom Labour would be doing demonstrably better and given we're likely three years off an election, it's often easier to change leader closer to Polling Day.

If NATO countries cave to Trump’s bullying now they’ll be doing themselves major damage. We have known this administration long enough to understand that it sees agreement and compromise as weakness. It’ll encourage Trump to bully more. He needs to be told to take a running jump, ideally with some threats thrown in - to US continued use of basis, and to defence procurement. Maybe a little bit of Epstein too.

To be honest it’s this threat that makes me think - more than oil prices or sanctions - that Puton is behind this.

If he can reframe NATO as an aggressor rather than a purely defensive alliance (that it is) that is hugely valuable from a geopolitical perspective

There’s clearly a need for someone to “do something” about the straits, and it’s a global economic challenge. And apparently the US don't have the capability.

It’s somewhat disappointing that the big spending Saudi, Qatari and UAE governments with all their FDI and oil money haven’t been able to muster something. They are after all on the doorstep and it’s their economies that are most dramatically affected.

A deeply buried pipeline that cuts through the UAE to Oman, with another to Saudi.

The ultimate loading terminals protected with defensive means to shoot down all that is fired at them from some way out. That needs to be 100% guaranteed. The ultimate in layered defense.

And the destruction of any vessel that leaves Iranian harbours on the Gulf. 100% Reaper-type drone coverage of the coast along its entire length, 24/7.

Yes, it will be expensive. But cheaper than the weaponry the US has fired off in the past 15 days.

The expense isn’t the problem - the problem is what do you do in the years it takes to build said pipelines and the docks at the end that will be required to receive the oil and gas.

And the terminals at each end will make a lovely fixed target.

The learning curve the ME has gone through in the last fortnight is that it can't defend fixed points from a multitude of cheap drones. One Patriot battery is bugger all use. The Ukraine War tactics come to the Gulf.

It will be very different in even two years time. By which time, Ukrainian companies will have made a killing.

The chance that British companies had to invest in Ukranian new-tech military has just disappeared.

The GCC States are throwing money at the problem. They have money.

Great news for GCC States, also great news for Ukrainian companies receiveing billions in investment. Not so good for regular expensive Western MIC who are still thinking about the last war and not the next one.

That won't much affect the industrial collaboration agreements in place and being developed.
The gulf states are (for now) largely customers.

They are now owners. UAE just bought 30% of the Ukrainian company that makes the Flamingo cruise missiles for example. They will get the benefit of wider sales.