Best Of

I get that Labour is very historically low however the gap between them and first place is fairly average historically?

There is no predicting the next GE result from the numbers, IMHO. There are multiple reasons for this state of affairs. The obvious one is that the numbers as they stand are unpredictable and unstable because too many parties, too close and too hard to target with no hint of UNS.

Another is that FPTP is inimical to a many party contest, and voters realise this. How the next GE is framed will decide lots of seats with little regard to the general trend or swing. I think the most likely framing is a simple Left v Right (which is Tory and Reform v All Others in practice.)

If the framing is that the great majority want the outcomes of 'Kick Labour Out' and at the same time 'Not Reform' then we are in for a unique election.

If you'll forgive me @MoonRabbit, repatriating the British deterrent and its delivery system is doable. You do it by doing it in slices, exploring alternates, and keep it off the books (see the Chevaline project for an example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevaline ). All that is needed os the will of a competent government

Unfortunately I think that (for different reasons) Starmer, Badenoch and Farage don't fall into that category

You need:

(a) enriched uranium or plutonium

We have a civilian nuclear industry so we have the raw materials. We don't have HEU, currently. But this also isn't that technically complicted to achieve; you just need a bloody load of centrifuges, which can be relatively easily and cheaply acquired.

(b) to build a warhead

Nuclear warheads are not that complicated. The basics, unless you want to go the hydrogen bomb route, are terribly simple. Sphere of HEU. Shaped charges. With today's modern electronics, it really wouldn't be that complicated.

(c) a delivery system (i.e. a missile)

There's really no reason why Storm Shadow could not carry a nuclear warhead. It would only be a small one (it can carry a 450kg warhead), and there are clearly some engineering challenges involves. But ultimately Storm Shadow (like every cruise missile) is basically just a plane, and while it might look a little ungainly to stick a nuclear warhead in there, it could clearly be done.

(It's a lot easier to make a cruide missile nuclear capable than a ballastic one.)

If you have a plane-based deterrent, then you need to keep several in the air 24/7 (not the same ones: you rotate) because the time to get them in the air from the ground base is greater than the time it takes the Russians to nuke the ground base. SLBMs are preferred for a reason.

SLBMs are not as invulnerable as they once were, as tracking is better than it once was, and as underwater drones become more sophisticated.

As opposed to - say - a field near Aldershot? A base in Cumbria? Ten miles down the road from Inverness? Where on land is better than the sea?

Much as I would like there to be a lake that slides aside when missiles ascend from it per James Bond, I don't think it'll help.

Central London

It's a target anyway

Remote island where blast largely affects bird life I vote. And most land based systems apparently have a hair trigger that means if they're attacked they loose a round at the attacker automatically.

The Offord experiment going well. Once we see their raft of kwality candidates they’ll be back on the up I’m sure.


Holyrood Voting Intention (Constituency Vote):

SNP: 36% (+1)
LAB: 20% (+4)
REF: 16% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
CON: 9% (-2)
GRN: 7% (-2)

Regional Vote:

SNP: 26% (-2)
LAB: 19% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
REF: 14% (-3)
CON: 11% (-1)
LDM: 10% (+3)

via @IpsosScotland, 19-25 Feb

(Changes with Dec

https://x.com/oprosuk/status/2033139099196891232?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

I am struggling to see your particular objection to Offord. He's not a charlatan, or particularly fruitcakey, or someone who's said massively gamey things about immigrants, or worse, English.

OK he's a former Tory politician - big whoop. Every active right of centre politician of recent times is going to have been a Tory. Is what you're so salty about actually the fact that he isn't a David Coburn comedy figure that you can make a nice meal out of?

He’s a bit crap and part of his crapness is that he was appointed to being a ‘Tory politician’ rather than wining a single vote.

I’m struggling to see why you get all snowflakey at the mildest dig (compared to your constant vitriol aimed at eg Starmer) at Offord. I imagine Reform’s drooping polling is the only thing preventing you from popping out that PB classic ‘ooh, you must feel threatened by X cos you say disobliging stuff about them!’

I'd have thought for Offord the main problem is that the average person's question regarding him would be "who?"

The Offord experiment going well. Once we see their raft of kwality candidates they’ll be back on the up I’m sure.


Holyrood Voting Intention (Constituency Vote):

SNP: 36% (+1)
LAB: 20% (+4)
REF: 16% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
CON: 9% (-2)
GRN: 7% (-2)

Regional Vote:

SNP: 26% (-2)
LAB: 19% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
REF: 14% (-3)
CON: 11% (-1)
LDM: 10% (+3)

via @IpsosScotland, 19-25 Feb

(Changes with Dec

https://x.com/oprosuk/status/2033139099196891232?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Encouraging Labour up swing there