Best Of
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
Sarwar has won some credit for disowning Starmer.I'd have thought for Offord the main problem is that the average person's question regarding him would be "who?"He’s a bit crap and part of his crapness is that he was appointed to being a ‘Tory politician’ rather than wining a single vote.The Offord experiment going well. Once we see their raft of kwality candidates they’ll be back on the up I’m sure.I am struggling to see your particular objection to Offord. He's not a charlatan, or particularly fruitcakey, or someone who's said massively gamey things about immigrants, or worse, English.
Holyrood Voting Intention (Constituency Vote):
SNP: 36% (+1)
LAB: 20% (+4)
REF: 16% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
CON: 9% (-2)
GRN: 7% (-2)
Regional Vote:
SNP: 26% (-2)
LAB: 19% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
REF: 14% (-3)
CON: 11% (-1)
LDM: 10% (+3)
via @IpsosScotland, 19-25 Feb
(Changes with Dec
https://x.com/oprosuk/status/2033139099196891232?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
OK he's a former Tory politician - big whoop. Every active right of centre politician of recent times is going to have been a Tory. Is what you're so salty about actually the fact that he isn't a David Coburn comedy figure that you can make a nice meal out of?
I’m struggling to see why you get all snowflakey at the mildest dig (compared to your constant vitriol aimed at eg Starmer) at Offord. I imagine Reform’s drooping polling is the only thing preventing you from popping out that PB classic ‘ooh, you must feel threatened by X cos you say disobliging stuff about them!’
He's not Swinney who unionists would never vote for and the Tory brand is still toxic aside from a few pockets.
Any small up tick or down vote for Lab Con could have massive repercussions on overall vote share and who comes 3rd 4th 5th for Party Leaders.
I do think Starmer is safe Until ME sorted.
Badenoch needs to be above Labour or is toast
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
Worth remembering that political leaders of all shades, from Attlee to Thatcher, have been pro-nuclear, so a Lib Dem being pro nuclear doesn't seem out of the question. Maybe it's a sign that the logic, sadly, demands it.Yes true, the Liberals have never had a leader who wanted to scrap the nuclear deterrentNot really trueLib Dems going pro.nuclear. I can't get my head around it.Labour were anti nuclear deterrent under Foot. The Liberals have always been pro nuclear missile deterrent
Monkeys
1
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
It is always possible to make different choices, and this is one that is worth making.
Sean_F
1
Re: A majority of Brits think World War 3 is likely in the next 5 to 10 years – politicalbetting.com
Keiran PedleyWhat I see there is none Labour none of the above vote shifting from Reform to Green..
@keiranpedley
Important observation from today's @Ipsos_in_the_UK voting intention figures. Reform vote share has clearly fallen over past 6 months
Here is the Sept vs today
Reform 34% ~ 28%
Labour 22% ~ 21%
Conservative 14% ~ 17%
Greens 12% ~ 17%
Lib Dems 12% ~ 9%
So a 6 point fall for Reform in this past 6 months.
https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/2033124890144838058
eek
1
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
Yes good news for Labour there, swing of 6% from SNP to Labour on the constituency vote and 7.5% from SNP to Labour since 2021.The Offord experiment going well. Once we see their raft of kwality candidates they’ll be back on the up I’m sure.Encouraging Labour up swing there
Holyrood Voting Intention (Constituency Vote):
SNP: 36% (+1)
LAB: 20% (+4)
REF: 16% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+1)
CON: 9% (-2)
GRN: 7% (-2)
Regional Vote:
SNP: 26% (-2)
LAB: 19% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
REF: 14% (-3)
CON: 11% (-1)
LDM: 10% (+3)
via @IpsosScotland, 19-25 Feb
(Changes with Dec
https://x.com/oprosuk/status/2033139099196891232?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Sarwar’s distancing himself from Starmer might produce one of the few bright spots for Labour in the May local and devolved elections
HYUFD
2
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
WellI thought it was an interesting header Rabbit.
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
That being so, you can't have been reading very much on here in the last month.Just ask the French nicely to get a piece of their independent nuclear deterrent. It wouldn't be nuclear independence per se, but closer collaboration with a regional power on an approximately equivalent level may be preferable to being the(very) junior lickspittle partner in an unstable coalition with the USA, who appear to have quite a low opinion of us.This is possibly the most idiotic thing I've read on PB all month.
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
There are more parties fighting for a share in the polls than there were in Whitehall during lockdown.I get that Labour is very historically low however the gap between them and first place is fairly average historically?Not sure the past can really inform us much about what is going on now, it’s no longer 2 or 2.5 party politics.
ydoethur
2
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
OT
It’s perfectly possible to build a two/three stage missile that will take a nuclear warhead to Moscow, or pretty much anywhere.
And to do so for reasonable cost.
The South Korean Hyunmoo-5, which is a road mobile ICBM, was developed for about $250 million. Unit cost would be a small fraction of that. That’s a Minuteman III class ICBM.
To build a Trident D5 sized launch vehicle would probably take not much more money. Solid rocket motors are actually fairly simple.
The real cost issue is the use of Big Aerospace, which has an almost religious belief in high costs.
The South Koreans simply ignore this.
Edit: note that Japan also builds three stage “orbital rockets” which bear a remarkable resemblance to the cancelled American MX heavy ICBM.
It’s perfectly possible to build a two/three stage missile that will take a nuclear warhead to Moscow, or pretty much anywhere.
And to do so for reasonable cost.
The South Korean Hyunmoo-5, which is a road mobile ICBM, was developed for about $250 million. Unit cost would be a small fraction of that. That’s a Minuteman III class ICBM.
To build a Trident D5 sized launch vehicle would probably take not much more money. Solid rocket motors are actually fairly simple.
The real cost issue is the use of Big Aerospace, which has an almost religious belief in high costs.
The South Koreans simply ignore this.
Edit: note that Japan also builds three stage “orbital rockets” which bear a remarkable resemblance to the cancelled American MX heavy ICBM.
Re: A nuclear deterrent – politicalbetting.com
Thanks, MR, really good header, although I don't agree about us having no choice but to remain a vassal of the US on defence matters. It won't be easy after all these years to take a different path but we will have to unless America pivots back to sanity post Donald Trump. It's impossible to decide what strategy is best until this becomes clearer. If we do opt for detachment from a gone-bad Uncle Sam I think I prefer the policy of scrapping our (not) independent nuclear deterrent to spending ludicrous sums on building a new one. There are better ways to use the defence budget. Ways more aligned to the actual threats we face.
kinabalu
2