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Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
I am sure that’s not a purely British ailment.Given high British public debt, which threatens the governments ability to fund growth, and low-ish British private debt, the correct fiscal strategy is to force the British public to pay privately for some public services, especially for capital investment.We are in a state of denial.
Road tolls to fund motorways, just to throw up a random example.
But one thing I notice about the UK is that there seems to be a single elite hive-mind, which decides what the problems are and whatever the politically acceptable solutions are.
And that hive-mind does not seem terribly worried that the country has been economically stagnant for coming on 20 years, that large parts of the country look like a dump, that the country has become progressively enshittified and less liberal in terms of “everyday lived experience”, and that public opinion is not onboard with the import of large numbers of immigrants at a culture-disrupting level. Or, if it has noticed, it’s decided the solutions are too hard.
As I’ve noted before, the U.S. is hardly in a more privileged position, but it has the benefit of a federal system and multiple, competing elites.
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
Given high British public debt, which threatens the governments ability to fund growth, and low-ish British private debt, the correct fiscal strategy is to force the British public to pay privately for some public services, especially for capital investment.
Road tolls to fund motorways, just to throw up a random example.
Road tolls to fund motorways, just to throw up a random example.
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
That’s a totally skibidi opinion, tbh.Then came back into use.Shakespeare used it but doesn't change the fact it fell out of use in England for a long time.Shakespeare used "gotten", so I don't see why @Casino_Royale can't.Got.I've really gotten under your skin, haven't I?You're like a man who still can't give actual examples.You're like a man with a fork in a world of soup.But you can't give actual examples. Because it's in your head.You are an absolutely perfect example of the phenomenon.What problem is who not recognising? You appear to be caught in some strange persecutory fantasy. The current Govt is very aware of many problems and are clearly trying to do something about them. Now, you may conclude that they're not doing a very good job, but the idea that they refuse to recognise problems and are doubling down on "hyperliberalism" is entirely at odds with reality. Indeed, part of Labour's polling woes is because they've lost the "hyperliberal" vote on their left, while not convincing those in the centre that they're delivering.I was surprised to see anti-migrant protest are taking place in a town not far from where I grew up: Horley in Surrey. Surely the post boring place in human history. Even its name is just a dreary amalgamation of those of the two nearby towns Horsham and Crawley (not particularly exciting places in themselves).The liberal consensus is breaking down. In real-time. I can even see aspects of it fraying amongst professional middle-class people, although more cautiously and with caveats.
I don't necessarily welcome this. I've considered myself pretty liberal in the past: a believer in openness, being reasonable, free debate, a supporter of moderate migration, sceptical of ID cards, hating detention without due cause, cherishing fair rights and responsibilities, open and free trade, and international rule of law.
However, this is all breaking down because of an absolute refusal of the governing elites to compromise, and an extraordinary level of resistance to any idea that there's even a problem - let alone that they should reform - to provide answers to the problems of today; their only response seemingly to be to clamp down on dissent and double-down on hyperliberalism.
In their determination to not give an inch anywhere, they risk losing everything. And plenty of them will never see it coming until it's far far too late, and then blame anyone but themselves.
In fact, you encapsulate it.
Can you give me a concrete example of a problem facing the country where there is "an absolute refusal of the governing elites to compromise, and an extraordinary level of resistance to any idea that there's even a problem - let alone that they should reform"?
Come on, what problem? People coming over in boats? The government is very clear that this is a problem and they want to stop it happening. Asylum seekers in hotels? Government policy is to end this practice as soon as possible. Overall net immigration being high? The Government has committed to reducing it from the levels seen in the last few years of the previous administration.
As I said, you might well think the Government is shit at handling any of these. Fair enough. But they're not refusing to acknowledge that there is a problem.
Language evolves.
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
The point of an ID card is a cheap way to confirm that you are who you claim to be (and say that you can work or rent a property).I haven't changed my mind. The State should have no right to demand to know my identity unless I am trying to claim something from them.I've somewhat changed my mind. These are normal in Bulgaria, where my wife is from, and just like a driving licence. People aren't reguarly demanded to supply them.The one thing we need to continue to resist is ID cards imo.I was surprised to see anti-migrant protest are taking place in a town not far from where I grew up: Horley in Surrey. Surely the post boring place in human history. Even its name is just a dreary amalgamation of those of the two nearby towns Horsham and Crawley (not particularly exciting places in themselves).The liberal consensus is breaking down. In real-time. I can even see aspects of it fraying amongst professional middle-class people, although more cautiously and with caveats.
I don't necessarily welcome this. I've considered myself pretty liberal in the past: a believer in openness, being reasonable, free debate, a supporter of moderate migration, sceptical of ID cards, hating detention without due cause, cherishing fair rights and responsibilities, open and free trade, and international rule of law.
However, this is all breaking down because of an absolute refusal of the governing elites to compromise, and an extraordinary level of resistance to any idea that there's even a problem - let alone that they should reform - to provide answers to the problems of today; their only response seemingly to be to clamp down on dissent and double-down on hyperliberalism.
In their determination to not give an inch anywhere, they risk losing everything. And plenty of them will never see it coming until it's far far too late, and then blame anyone but themselves.
And we don't really have any privacy anyway. We are all tracked and monitored with our data and phones wherever we go, and our ISPs and Chatbots know everything about us.
If an ID card could be disaggregated from all other databases and shown to make it impossible to work as an illegal migrant, and aid deportations, and deter new arrivals, I might take a different view now to what I did in 2006-2008.
So I have zero problems with ID cards being introduced - the issue would come if you need to carry it with you at all times.

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Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
I look forward to engaging with you on another day! And I empathise with the struggle of having to feed other people.Well, that's progress of sorts.Also, I'm not certain why you say, "You're seen as pompous, arrogant and condescending and yet remain, inexplicably, in charge"? I mean, I am "pompous, arrogant and condescending". Can't deny that!Well, it will - because when people talk about "owning the libs" they're talking precisely about people like you.I had thought you were interested in a discussion. If you're just interested in "owning the libs"... well, we've seen where that's ended up in the US. Fingers crossed that the UK does not follow the same path.I've really gotten under your skin, haven't I?You're like a man who still can't give actual examples.You're like a man with a fork in a world of soup.But you can't give actual examples. Because it's in your head.You are an absolutely perfect example of the phenomenon.What problem is who not recognising? You appear to be caught in some strange persecutory fantasy. The current Govt is very aware of many problems and are clearly trying to do something about them. Now, you may conclude that they're not doing a very good job, but the idea that they refuse to recognise problems and are doubling down on "hyperliberalism" is entirely at odds with reality. Indeed, part of Labour's polling woes is because they've lost the "hyperliberal" vote on their left, while not convincing those in the centre that they're delivering.I was surprised to see anti-migrant protest are taking place in a town not far from where I grew up: Horley in Surrey. Surely the post boring place in human history. Even its name is just a dreary amalgamation of those of the two nearby towns Horsham and Crawley (not particularly exciting places in themselves).The liberal consensus is breaking down. In real-time. I can even see aspects of it fraying amongst professional middle-class people, although more cautiously and with caveats.
I don't necessarily welcome this. I've considered myself pretty liberal in the past: a believer in openness, being reasonable, free debate, a supporter of moderate migration, sceptical of ID cards, hating detention without due cause, cherishing fair rights and responsibilities, open and free trade, and international rule of law.
However, this is all breaking down because of an absolute refusal of the governing elites to compromise, and an extraordinary level of resistance to any idea that there's even a problem - let alone that they should reform - to provide answers to the problems of today; their only response seemingly to be to clamp down on dissent and double-down on hyperliberalism.
In their determination to not give an inch anywhere, they risk losing everything. And plenty of them will never see it coming until it's far far too late, and then blame anyone but themselves.
In fact, you encapsulate it.
Can you give me a concrete example of a problem facing the country where there is "an absolute refusal of the governing elites to compromise, and an extraordinary level of resistance to any idea that there's even a problem - let alone that they should reform"?
Come on, what problem? People coming over in boats? The government is very clear that this is a problem and they want to stop it happening. Asylum seekers in hotels? Government policy is to end this practice as soon as possible. Overall net immigration being high? The Government has committed to reducing it from the levels seen in the last few years of the previous administration.
As I said, you might well think the Government is shit at handling any of these. Fair enough. But they're not refusing to acknowledge that there is a problem.
Because you won't engage with, empathise with or even attempt to understand the central point you end up utterly infuriating them. You're seen as pompous, arrogant and condescending and yet remain, inexplicably, in charge - so the only political satisfaction they have is to "own" you. Of course, you won't recognise any of this - your total lack of self-awareness being symbolic of your kind - because you lack any humility to recognise that you might not have possibly got all of this right.
And, so, you get owned.
Anyway, I've got to get the kids supper.
Laterz peeps.
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
Where is the discussion of that massive database where everyone had access - it's not existed since about 2005 and nowadays it never would.It issue isn't a card, most people have passports and driving licences, it is the discussion of an ID card by politicians has always turned to having this massive database that is accessible across the public sector (in a way your passport isn't).The point of an ID card is a cheap way to confirm that you are who you claim to be.I haven't changed my mind. The State should have no right to demand to know my identity unless I am trying to claim something from them.I've somewhat changed my mind. These are normal in Bulgaria, where my wife is from, and just like a driving licence. People aren't reguarly demanded to supply them.The one thing we need to continue to resist is ID cards imo.I was surprised to see anti-migrant protest are taking place in a town not far from where I grew up: Horley in Surrey. Surely the post boring place in human history. Even its name is just a dreary amalgamation of those of the two nearby towns Horsham and Crawley (not particularly exciting places in themselves).The liberal consensus is breaking down. In real-time. I can even see aspects of it fraying amongst professional middle-class people, although more cautiously and with caveats.
I don't necessarily welcome this. I've considered myself pretty liberal in the past: a believer in openness, being reasonable, free debate, a supporter of moderate migration, sceptical of ID cards, hating detention without due cause, cherishing fair rights and responsibilities, open and free trade, and international rule of law.
However, this is all breaking down because of an absolute refusal of the governing elites to compromise, and an extraordinary level of resistance to any idea that there's even a problem - let alone that they should reform - to provide answers to the problems of today; their only response seemingly to be to clamp down on dissent and double-down on hyperliberalism.
In their determination to not give an inch anywhere, they risk losing everything. And plenty of them will never see it coming until it's far far too late, and then blame anyone but themselves.
And we don't really have any privacy anyway. We are all tracked and monitored with our data and phones wherever we go, and our ISPs and Chatbots know everything about us.
If an ID card could be disaggregated from all other databases and shown to make it impossible to work as an illegal migrant, and aid deportations, and deter new arrivals, I might take a different view now to what I did in 2006-2008.
So I have zero problems with ID cards being introduced - the issue would come if you need to carry it with you at all times.
The easiest and quickest way to get fired at DWP / HMRC is to search for someone's details that you haven't got a reason to look at.
ID cards solve a problem. A single sign-on point to Government systems solves a whole set of problems.
My limits are - allowing people to look at (any) data without a valid reason or being required to carry something at all times...

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Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
Off topic, but possibly relevant to the UK:In many ways, the US is in a worse position because of just how much debt there is that's not counted at the federal level.
In my not-entirely-humble opinion, this is the second largest US domestic problem: The “onrushing debt disaster”. In a recent column, George Will passes on Professor Mankiw’s five possible solutions, none of them likely in the near future. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/08/08/economic-fiscal-debt-crisis/There are, he says, five ways to “stop this upward trajectory” of debt: extraordinary economic growth, government default, large-scale money creation, substantial cuts in government spending and large tax increases. The probability of each is low.As it happens, I’m old enough so that it is unlikely our debt disaster will have much effect on me. But I feel like apologizing whenever I see a little kid, knowing the burden my generation, and the following ones, have loaded on to them.
There’s an old Peanuts cartoon, in which Lucy is complaining about the problems her generation will inherit. But she has a solution: When Linus asks her what can they do, she says “Stick the next generation.”
We are worse than she, because we are going to stick at least the next two generations.
(Mankiw’s lecture: https://www.nber.org/research/videos/2025-17th-annual-feldstein-lecture-n-gregory-mankiw-fiscal-future )
At least in the UK, the vast majority of public sector debt is simply debt issued by the UK government. The amount of debt in aggregate by the towns/parishes/cities and the counties is relatively trivial.

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Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
The easiest and quickest way to get fired at DWP / HMRC is to search for someone's details that you haven't got a reason to look at.The problem with ID cards and the associated database isn't a random civil servant looking up someone's details. It's government departments doing automated scans of the database to find people who match certain parameters. The government will have the capability to identify groups of people in a way they just can't at the moment.
ID cards solve a problem. A single sign-on point to Government systems solves a whole set of problems.
My limits are - allowing people to look at (any) data without a valid reason or being required to carry something at all times...
And you will end up having to carry it. Buying a bottle of wine? ID card. Hospital treatment? ID card. Buying a new phone? ID card. Using a public toilet - tap your ID card to prove you're the right sex. Trans woman? Oops, card says you are male, can't come in here.
They will cloak it as efforts to prevent crime and protect children from undesirable stuff, but if ID cards exist they will be used to control and discriminate.
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
By the way, @CatMan , I love the image choice!
Re: Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
Who the *uck cares? It's a word. I knew what Casino Royale meant. You did, we all did. When someone says the word "teenager" people don't say "actually that's an American English word, the correct thing to say is person aged from 13 to 19".Shakespeare used it but doesn't change the fact it fell out of use in England for a long time.Shakespeare used "gotten", so I don't see why @Casino_Royale can't.Got.I've really gotten under your skin, haven't I?You're like a man who still can't give actual examples.You're like a man with a fork in a world of soup.But you can't give actual examples. Because it's in your head.You are an absolutely perfect example of the phenomenon.What problem is who not recognising? You appear to be caught in some strange persecutory fantasy. The current Govt is very aware of many problems and are clearly trying to do something about them. Now, you may conclude that they're not doing a very good job, but the idea that they refuse to recognise problems and are doubling down on "hyperliberalism" is entirely at odds with reality. Indeed, part of Labour's polling woes is because they've lost the "hyperliberal" vote on their left, while not convincing those in the centre that they're delivering.I was surprised to see anti-migrant protest are taking place in a town not far from where I grew up: Horley in Surrey. Surely the post boring place in human history. Even its name is just a dreary amalgamation of those of the two nearby towns Horsham and Crawley (not particularly exciting places in themselves).The liberal consensus is breaking down. In real-time. I can even see aspects of it fraying amongst professional middle-class people, although more cautiously and with caveats.
I don't necessarily welcome this. I've considered myself pretty liberal in the past: a believer in openness, being reasonable, free debate, a supporter of moderate migration, sceptical of ID cards, hating detention without due cause, cherishing fair rights and responsibilities, open and free trade, and international rule of law.
However, this is all breaking down because of an absolute refusal of the governing elites to compromise, and an extraordinary level of resistance to any idea that there's even a problem - let alone that they should reform - to provide answers to the problems of today; their only response seemingly to be to clamp down on dissent and double-down on hyperliberalism.
In their determination to not give an inch anywhere, they risk losing everything. And plenty of them will never see it coming until it's far far too late, and then blame anyone but themselves.
In fact, you encapsulate it.
Can you give me a concrete example of a problem facing the country where there is "an absolute refusal of the governing elites to compromise, and an extraordinary level of resistance to any idea that there's even a problem - let alone that they should reform"?
Come on, what problem? People coming over in boats? The government is very clear that this is a problem and they want to stop it happening. Asylum seekers in hotels? Government policy is to end this practice as soon as possible. Overall net immigration being high? The Government has committed to reducing it from the levels seen in the last few years of the previous administration.
As I said, you might well think the Government is shit at handling any of these. Fair enough. But they're not refusing to acknowledge that there is a problem.

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