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In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation.

Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2032786358930972854


(part of a longer tweet on where the US now stands strategically)

What remains astonishing is that this was blindingly obvious in advance to anyone who spent a couple of minutes thinking about how this was likely to develop. Just brainless.

So, where do we go from here? I think Hormuz will be impassable without Iranian permission for months unless the US invades and secures the opposite bank. This will bring US forces within range for a lot more of Iran's arsenal. Casualties will be 20 or more to 1 given US air and missile power but my guess is that Iran can much more easily absorb 100k-500k casualties than Trump can endure 5-25k. This is a country that sustained up to 1m casualties in their war with Saddam.

Trying to capture and then hold a country of more than 90m would take far more troops than the US has. They can destroy a lot of the country, they can impose Gaza style carnage but it is really not obvious how they actually win. There may come a point when Trump wants to talk about Epstein instead.

Again, this is why I genuinely fear it could gio nuclear. That may be the only way for Trump to convincingly defeat the Tehran regime, which clearly - and rightly - sees this war as existential for the Mullahs and the IRGC

How might it work? Perhaps two or three smaller "tactical" nukes on military sites, at first, with the clear implication that Trump is willing to flatten Tehran if needs be

They would surrender. But the world would be hurled into hideous turmoil....

Trump and his coterie are stark raving mad and utterly immoral. Who knows what they might do in extremis? Interesting times.

In other words, Washington now faces three difficult paths: end the conflict under conditions that may allow Iran to claim a strategic victory; continue the current campaign and risk prolonged instability and rising global energy prices; or expand the war and trigger a major regional escalation.

Time is not neutral in this equation. Each passing day hardens Tehran’s perception that it can withstand the pressure and emerge from the crisis with the upper hand.

https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2032786358930972854


(part of a longer tweet on where the US now stands strategically)

What remains astonishing is that this was blindingly obvious in advance to anyone who spent a couple of minutes thinking about how this was likely to develop. Just brainless.

So, where do we go from here? I think Hormuz will be impassable without Iranian permission for months unless the US invades and secures the opposite bank. This will bring US forces within range for a lot more of Iran's arsenal. Casualties will be 20 or more to 1 given US air and missile power but my guess is that Iran can much more easily absorb 100k-500k casualties than Trump can endure 5-25k. This is a country that sustained up to 1m casualties in their war with Saddam.

Trying to capture and then hold a country of more than 90m would take far more troops than the US has. They can destroy a lot of the country, they can impose Gaza style carnage but it is really not obvious how they actually win. There may come a point when Trump wants to talk about Epstein instead.

Again, this is why I genuinely fear it could gio nuclear. That may be the only way for Trump to convincingly defeat the Tehran regime, which clearly - and rightly - sees this war as existential for the Mullahs and the IRGC

How might it work? Perhaps two or three smaller "tactical" nukes on military sites, at first, with the clear implication that Trump is willing to flatten Tehran if needs be

They would surrender. But the world would be hurled into hideous turmoil....

Trump and his coterie are stark raving mad and utterly immoral. Who knows what they might do in extremis? Interesting times.

If America used tactical nukes, the Arab world would say it was Israel.

And have the cover to evict the US bases.

I do wonder whether evicting the US bases is the way this ultimately plays out.

And the Saudis determinedly getting their own nukes, with Pakistani assistance. Not that Iran's own nuclear ambitions will be ended.

I fully expect the net outcome of this war will be nuclear proliferation.

‘You are all worse than each other’: anti-regime Iranians turn on Trump
Mood among some in Iran shifts from hope of being rescued to dismay at destruction of infrastructure, culture and lives

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/14/anti-regime-iranians-turn-on-trump-us
...The turning point for Amir was the Israeli strikes on fuel depots in Tehran last week, with one attack on the Shahran oil depot overshadowing the capital with black smoke. A rain shower later covered trees, homes and cars with layers of toxic oil.

“I genuinely believe now they [the US and Israel] didn’t have a plan. I was still hoping I was wrong, but the Shahran attack changed the way I look at this war right now,” he said. “If the regime is what you want to hit, even if you think these depots were used by the regime, where do you draw the line? What about us, the ordinary Iranians? We rely on this civil infrastructure. Why take away our ability to govern in the future? Who can rebuild utter ruins?”

Amir said he now had constant anxiety about Iran “turning into another Iraq”, a country the US invaded in 2003, promising freedom but delivering a civil war. Israeli leaders have also previously called on Palestinians in Gaza and the Lebanese people to rise up against oppression, only to later kill them in large numbers.

“My heart is so heavy,” said Amir. “I don’t even have tears left. Only anger and more anger. At this regime, and them,” he added, referring to the US and Israel.

Others who spoke to the Guardian this week also had a shift in their attitudes towards the war, especially after the attack on oil depots, but also after seeing images of the country’s heritage sites damaged...

Sigh. All so utterly predictable.

Last Friday I went to get the Barnet notched and my Barber is Iranian.

He was delighted with Trump and Bibi and felt real progress was being made.

He’s hardcore anti regime. Organises demos at the Grey monument, he went to Paris and Munich, but not New York and London, to protest against the regime,

I go again in a few weeks.

Be interested in his thoughts then.

I did think he should not expect too much from them.

FWIW, The Speccie has a piece by Freddie Grey this weekend about US and Iran and says the US military planners etc were absolutely boiling angry when Netanyahu bombed all those oil depots. Sounds like he went off-piste.

Also, apparently the Iranian have code named their planned fightback as 'Operation Madman'.

https://x.com/kyivpost/status/2032788623322488936

Iran threatens Ukraine with strikes, claiming Kyiv’s alleged support for Israel — including drone assistance — makes the entire territory of Ukraine a “legitimate target,” said Ibrahim Azizi, head of Iran’s parliamentary commission on national security.

An empty gesture.
They've been supplying drones in the tens of thousands to Russia for a long, long time.

Ukraine can start supplying Dubai with Flamingos next. Very very cheap, very very destructive.

UAE should buy shares in the company making them, and invest billions into Ukraine in the process.

One suspects that the GCC States are looking at a lot of Ukranian military startups at the moment.

The United States struck more than 90 military targets on Iran’s vital Kharg Island in a large-scale precision strike overnight. The strike destroyed naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers and multiple other military sites.

The pictures of these bunkerbusting bombs look damn scary. They appear to be able to drop tens of tonnes of payload to milimetre accuracy, having already taken out pretty much the entirety of Iranian air defences.

Yes, but they still need to find targets that are worth even a small fraction of the munition used to destroy them. If you believe for a moment that there are 90 such targets on Kharg Island then fair enough. I have my doubts.

The Iranians have been fortifying it for years. There will be no shortage of military targets there.

Almost as if they had… what’s word? Planned. Yes that’s it - planned for an attack on them.

@ejmalrai

Breaking News:

Iranian decision makers indicate that the Americans appear to be failing to understand that, for Iran, this is an existential war. In such a context, nothing is considered too precious to sacrifice.

With the approval of the new leader, Sayyed Mojataba Khamenei, it was agreed that if the US strikes or lands on any Iranian installations, Tehran is prepared to escalate dramatically.

Possible approved responses include:
1. Closure of Bab el Mandeb and attacks on Red Sea ports exporting oil, expanding the war to a vital global shipping route.
2. Total destruction of any island used by US forces as a staging ground, even if it means destroying Iranian installations worth billions of dollars and oil depots containing millions of barrels.
3. Complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its declaration as a war theatre, turning the world’s most critical energy chokepoint into an active battlefield.
4. All US locations in the Middle East are considered legitimate targets

Other plans have also been approved for different scenarios.

https://x.com/ejmalrai/status/2032776261563502888?s=20

Possibly true but the issue for the rest of us is that the US Administration doesn't appear to care.

Trump might even see it as good for business (and a great deal of insider trading opportunities), given the US position as the world's largest oil producer.
It's not as though he gives a damn for the world economy.

That is the paradox. High oil prices are bad for American consumers (and voters) but excellent news for American squillionaires who rub shoulders with the president and bankroll Republicans.

As I may have said before, watch out for the export restrictions on American O&G. They’re now pretty much self-sufficient, and can probably hold ‘gas’ (petrol) prices down ahead of the mid terms.

To do that would mean US O&G companies losing out on lots of money. When push comes to shove, Trump usually sides with the big companies over the public, particularly if the big companies make some… um… donations to a new ballroom or the Board of Peace.

Also, as Robert pointed out, the US produces the wrong sort of oil. Its refining capacity is focused on heavier oils that it needs to import, not the light oils it produces and generally exports. But here we are making the assumption that the White House is even vaguely rational again.

Venezeulan oil is heavy.

Just sayin'...they might know what they are doing after all.