Best Of
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
A theocratic regime is by definition not entirely rational. Their strategy is also deeply flawed; if they'd spent the last decade semi-appeasing the US they'd be immeasurable more wealthy, could have built some genuinely useful armed forces with Chinese kit, and could probably have at some point acquired nuclear weapons.I don't think Iran are being irrational at all, they are playing a shit hand well.If the US wanted to destroy the whole of Kharg island they could so it seems like a game of chicken here .Apparently Trump has told Iran to open the Straights of Hormuz or he will destroy the oil facilities on Kharg island
Destroying the islands oil infrastructure will stop nearly all exports from Iran , this surely would cause a further oil spike .
Iran could retaliate with trying to cause further damage to the Gulf states oil refineries .
High stakes, and two irrational and irresponsible leaders out of control
They're responsible for their own shit hand.
But you're right that tactically they're way ahead of the imbeciles directing the US attack.
Nigelb
4
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
I’ve seen social media suggestions that at some point soon independent garages are going to start breaking down petrol prices.There is a great deal of our green energy policy that is responsible for high prices. It’s just he “policy” but not the “green energy” bit.BigG. He seems to think opening up licences will solve this.Who exactly has ever suggested that?O&G only represents about 1% of the UK economy. Issuing some new licenses isn't going to boost that to any significant degree, and won't have a material effect for several years, and it's trending downwards anyway. Long term decisions aren't going to be made on a oil/gas price that we hope is only temporarily inflated.What in the last eighteen months makes you think that Reeves has any connection to, or even awareness of, economic reality?I expect Reeves will give in on North Sea licences as economic reality kicks inYep. Labour should definitely pin the UK energy situation on Miliband. Incredibly high and rising prices being down to him is just the ticket.Miliband is the reason British forces didn't take part in the initial strike on Iran which has caused this mess in the first place. He's also advocating the kind of energy that isn't vulnerable to whims of the Iranian regime of Vladimir Putin. In the battle of political narratives, I think he's in a reasonably strong position.Public sentiment is they dont like high energy prices.It's not quite as simple as that - it's long been known that competition in this sector is rather weak. There's considerable market power and the CMA has been investigating it for some time. In that case profiteering is sound economics.Well yes, supply and demand enters the picture. One man's profiteering is another man's sound economics.Besides- the free market selling price of everything is as much as the seller can get away with. Always has been, that's how the system is meant to work. The only question is what mechanisms stop that price being all but infinite.We discussed this yesterday. Are the retailers price gouging? Some said yes, some said they are entitled to increase the retail price of their current stock in anticipation of the increased cost of the next delivery.That 34% ethical is interesting in so much as it mirrors the Labour vote in 2024.Speaking of hatred, Miliband's doing his bit to stir up a little against the evil private sector, who are clearly raising fuel prices for reasons unrelated to any real world events. Ahem.
I don't believe the question "is Starmer unethical or ethical" is the best question. "Does Starmer appear ethical or unethical" would generate a much sharper divergence
I'd like him to fall on his sword, the level of hatred against the man is off the scale and a distraction for functional government. Some of that contempt is well deserved (he is shockingly bad at politics) but a great deal has been confected by the media due to his demand for a second Referendum and his undermining poor Boris.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c626mdvn6d5o
Feel sorry for those working in petrol stations getting abuse because the green zealot's trying to blame the private sector ahead of a potential government hike in income tax because a moron in America didn't realise starting an unplanned, pointless war in the Middle East had the obvious consequence of a rise in oil prices.
We did agree that those abusing minimum wage cashiers at petrol stations deserve their own place in idiot's corner/ Hell.
(Same as the free market buying price of a thing is the lowest the seller can be persuaded/forced to swallow. Those two things don't have to overlap, but when they do, wonderful things can happen.)
This is one of those topics where PB is out of touch with public sentiment - just check out the comments on the BBC article. And blaming the government for abusive behaviour from some motorists to retail staff is just...mad.
Milibands policy of raining prices will bite Labour in the arse.
(Though I must say I've been disappointed the government isn't pushing that point more forcefully).
Those suggesting this will solve our economic and fiscal woes in the face of an energy crisis are those with no connection to economic reality. #everylittlehelps though, I guess.
Quotation required.
Otherwise that's not even a strawman.
The whole response from those instinctively opposed to Net Zero, renewables etc has been risible - we're currently living through our second hydrocarbons crisis in four years and people are still clinging to the idea that our green energy policy is to blame for high prices.
Loading the cost of transition onto retail bills or pegging pricing to natural gas prices being two examples.
Petrol: 60p
Garage: 10p (gross income)
Government: 80p
YOU PAY 150p.
Sandpit
2
Re: Operation Epstein Fury is achieving its goals – politicalbetting.com
Trump and Hegseth are very brave when it comes to the lives of other people's children. If I were an American of fighting age I'd be culturing my bone spurs like fury!@paleofuture.bsky.socialHegseth won't even given them a dime, let alone a quarter.
Hegseth: "We will keep pushing, keep advancing. No quarter, no mercy for our enemies."
No quarter is the refusal to take prisoners and instead just execute everyone. It's been considered a war crime for over a century.
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
You don’t cut Stamp Duty because you think it will bring house prices down. You cut it because massive transaction taxes on people moving house are a terrible drag on your economy.Neither of them is sensible.Kemi sensibly proposed abolishing Stamp Duty insteadIt is solely for first time buyers and is the kind of incentive I could see Kemi being attracted toGood morningSo in other words Swinney has offered more taxes from long suffering middle and higher earning Scots pockets for a deposit of less than 10% of the average Scottish house price. Building more homes for first time buyers would be a better use of his time
Interesting SNP offer
BBC News - Swinney pledges £10,000 deposit to support first-time buyers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2jz1gvz7no
And on Boris - no
Both of them will see house prices rise to absorb the incentive, so the money will accrue to sellers.
Remember that, in a free market, prices are the most that the purchaser can be forced to pay.
Stamp Duty is the worst tax on the books in terms of negative economic impact.
Phil
6
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
On one hand, fair point. (Though one of the interesting things to watch will be how far Green MPs and councillors feel the need to follow the ramblings of a man who hasn't been elected by the public.)Tory defection to Green Party whispers.If any Tory defects to Polanski's near Marxist Green Party they should never have been in the Tory Party in the first place!
SW groups
Former Junior Minister, lost seat to LD in July 2024,very passionate Environmentalist in Parliament and Government and out of Parliament.
Disgusted with Tory net zero stance.
Could be announced early next week.
Batman expletives incoming!
On the other, "they should go away and join another party" is not what healthy political parties say. Big tent, not pure tent.
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
Tory defection to Green Party whispers.If any Tory defects to Polanski's near Marxist Green Party they should never have been in the Tory Party in the first place!
SW groups
Former Junior Minister, lost seat to LD in July 2024,very passionate Environmentalist in Parliament and Government and out of Parliament.
Disgusted with Tory net zero stance.
Could be announced early next week.
Batman expletives incoming!
HYUFD
5
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
'The new Archbishop of Canterbury will embark on a six-day pilgrimage to prepare for her installation service.If I was at all Christian, and lived a not ridiculous distance from Kent, I'd definitely want to join in with that for at least one of the days.
Dame Sarah Mullally, along with her husband Eamonn, will walk the 140km (87 mile) route from St Paul's Cathedral in London to Canterbury Cathedral before the service on 25 March.
It is the first time in modern history that an Archbishop of Canterbury has undertaken a pilgrimage of this nature in the lead-up to their installation.
While walking the Becket Way, her group will join prayer services at churches, cathedrals and abbeys, as well as meeting with other pilgrims and visiting schools.
The Archbishop will walk along stretches of the Thames Path, the Via Britannica and the Augustine Camino, which is the pilgrimage route celebrating the conversion of English-speaking people to Christianity.
Stops will include Southwark Cathedral, Aylesford Priory, the Shrine of St Jude in Faversham, Lesnes Abbey and Rochester Cathedral, Lambeth Palace says.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yjm9zdn8no
The 25th is a Wednesday [Warhammer reveal show at Adepticon day] so the middle two days of the pilgrimage will be the weekend.
It'll be interesting to see whether many people join her on the pilgrimage.
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
Speaking as a HENRY, Badenoch has been excellent on student loans and Stamp Duty (LBTT is even worse in Scotland). More of that and less of the "British ICE" stuff and she'll pick up some non-pensioner votes.You can do bothKemi sensibly proposed abolishing Stamp Duty insteadIt is solely for first time buyers and is the kind of incentive I could see Kemi being attracted toGood morningSo in other words Swinney has offered more taxes from long suffering middle and higher earning Scots pockets for a deposit of less than 10% of the average Scottish house price. Building more homes for first time buyers would be a better use of his time
Interesting SNP offer
BBC News - Swinney pledges £10,000 deposit to support first-time buyers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2jz1gvz7no
And on Boris - no
Kemi has already led the way on student loans with a government committee now to review them, and she is correct to look at everything around NEETS and helping young people
Pensioners have had too much emphasis, and time to help the young and those striving to make a success of their lives
It's a big ask though - if you're under 50 and on a decent wage you're overwhelmingly likely to vote Labour/Green.
Eabhal
1
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
A380With their home airport out of bounds, Qatar Airways has operated a couple of flights overnight from Thailand to Manchester. How many passengers on board is an interesting question.Love an A380, on my constitutional yesterday evening, the Emirates big bird from Dubai into the last 20 odd miles towards Manchester Airport came over just a couple of hundred yards to my left. My taxi timings were such a year or two back that, as I headed out into the valleys in a Manchester ward direction, it would often overtake me, apparently following the stream of a particularly pastoral tributary of the Holme and seemingly just hanging there but still stretching into the distance and the moorlands. A contrast from the overhead in the terraces of central Hyde, much louder, much lower, similarly impressive but with a very different vibe.
Loads of cranks at Manchester to see the A380 that has just landed.
Pro_Rata: 100+ words of lyrical anecdote, placing the aircraft at a known point with detail to place, time, and feel.
Viewcode: BIG PLANE! PLANE GO BIG!
1
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
You can do bothKemi sensibly proposed abolishing Stamp Duty insteadIt is solely for first time buyers and is the kind of incentive I could see Kemi being attracted toGood morningSo in other words Swinney has offered more taxes from long suffering middle and higher earning Scots pockets for a deposit of less than 10% of the average Scottish house price. Building more homes for first time buyers would be a better use of his time
Interesting SNP offer
BBC News - Swinney pledges £10,000 deposit to support first-time buyers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2jz1gvz7no
And on Boris - no
Kemi has already led the way on student loans with a government committee now to review them, and she is correct to look at everything around NEETS and helping young people
Pensioners have had too much emphasis, and time to help the young and those striving to make a success of their lives


