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Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
Well do not accuse me of that because I support renewables, have solar panels, and expect over the next 20 years we will have largely transitioned away from fossil fuelsI don't disagree at all - just trying to put to bed the notion this the panacea to both our economic and tax challenges, and our energy security issues. It's whataboutery from people who can't accept that getting onto domestic renewables is the only rational response to what is going on right now (and I think the economic gains from doing that massively outweigh squeezing a little bit more oil and gas out of the North Sea, conditional on market reform).Billions here, billions there and soon we are talking real money.I don't disagree. But don't pretend it solves what we are currently dealing with.It is the tax take of billions over time that is the benefitO&G only represents about 1% of the UK economy. Issuing some new licenses isn't going to boost that to any significant degree, and won't have a material effect for several years, and it's trending downwards anyway. Long term decisions aren't going to be made on a oil/gas price that we hope is only temporarily inflated.What in the last eighteen months makes you think that Reeves has any connection to, or even awareness of, economic reality?I expect Reeves will give in on North Sea licences as economic reality kicks inYep. Labour should definitely pin the UK energy situation on Miliband. Incredibly high and rising prices being down to him is just the ticket.Miliband is the reason British forces didn't take part in the initial strike on Iran which has caused this mess in the first place. He's also advocating the kind of energy that isn't vulnerable to whims of the Iranian regime of Vladimir Putin. In the battle of political narratives, I think he's in a reasonably strong position.Public sentiment is they dont like high energy prices.It's not quite as simple as that - it's long been known that competition in this sector is rather weak. There's considerable market power and the CMA has been investigating it for some time. In that case profiteering is sound economics.Well yes, supply and demand enters the picture. One man's profiteering is another man's sound economics.Besides- the free market selling price of everything is as much as the seller can get away with. Always has been, that's how the system is meant to work. The only question is what mechanisms stop that price being all but infinite.We discussed this yesterday. Are the retailers price gouging? Some said yes, some said they are entitled to increase the retail price of their current stock in anticipation of the increased cost of the next delivery.That 34% ethical is interesting in so much as it mirrors the Labour vote in 2024.Speaking of hatred, Miliband's doing his bit to stir up a little against the evil private sector, who are clearly raising fuel prices for reasons unrelated to any real world events. Ahem.
I don't believe the question "is Starmer unethical or ethical" is the best question. "Does Starmer appear ethical or unethical" would generate a much sharper divergence
I'd like him to fall on his sword, the level of hatred against the man is off the scale and a distraction for functional government. Some of that contempt is well deserved (he is shockingly bad at politics) but a great deal has been confected by the media due to his demand for a second Referendum and his undermining poor Boris.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c626mdvn6d5o
Feel sorry for those working in petrol stations getting abuse because the green zealot's trying to blame the private sector ahead of a potential government hike in income tax because a moron in America didn't realise starting an unplanned, pointless war in the Middle East had the obvious consequence of a rise in oil prices.
We did agree that those abusing minimum wage cashiers at petrol stations deserve their own place in idiot's corner/ Hell.
(Same as the free market buying price of a thing is the lowest the seller can be persuaded/forced to swallow. Those two things don't have to overlap, but when they do, wonderful things can happen.)
This is one of those topics where PB is out of touch with public sentiment - just check out the comments on the BBC article. And blaming the government for abusive behaviour from some motorists to retail staff is just...mad.
Milibands policy of raining prices will bite Labour in the arse.
(Though I must say I've been disappointed the government isn't pushing that point more forcefully).
Those suggesting this will solve our economic and fiscal woes in the face of an energy crisis are those with no connection to economic reality. #everylittlehelps though, I guess.
It is economic vandalism not to add it to the exchequer over the next 20 years as we transaction away from fossil fuels
(and the cumulative impact is still relatively tiny. Over 25 years, taking the OEUK figures, it will represent about 0.1% of our tax revenues).
The same can be said about any sector. Deflating figures by counting them as a percentage of the total economy is disingenuous, unless you can come up with cuts to our expenditure equivalent to at least that 0.1% too. Good luck with that!
It is just madness not to take as much tax revenue from the North Sea as we can in that period
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
It's a credible threatIt's not a credible threat from Trump. Just imagine what will happen to oil prices if they do blow it up.I don't think Iran are being irrational at all, they are playing a shit hand well.If the US wanted to destroy the whole of Kharg island they could so it seems like a game of chicken here .Apparently Trump has told Iran to open the Straights of Hormuz or he will destroy the oil facilities on Kharg island
Destroying the islands oil infrastructure will stop nearly all exports from Iran , this surely would cause a further oil spike .
Iran could retaliate with trying to cause further damage to the Gulf states oil refineries .
High stakes, and two irrational and irresponsible leaders out of control
It's not a rational threat
Scott_xP
3
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
Just because it's enitrely stupid doesn't mean it's not credible. I think we should stop attributing rationality to the actions of the US.It's not a credible threat from Trump. Just imagine what will happen to oil prices if they do blow it up.I don't think Iran are being irrational at all, they are playing a shit hand well.If the US wanted to destroy the whole of Kharg island they could so it seems like a game of chicken here .Apparently Trump has told Iran to open the Straights of Hormuz or he will destroy the oil facilities on Kharg island
Destroying the islands oil infrastructure will stop nearly all exports from Iran , this surely would cause a further oil spike .
Iran could retaliate with trying to cause further damage to the Gulf states oil refineries .
High stakes, and two irrational and irresponsible leaders out of control
ydoethur
3
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
Austerity doesn't work biglierTaxing your way out of a recession isn’t a novel idea, either. It doesn’t work.Austerity wasn't the only option on the table. If we feel they are worthy and we want services like libraries in Wolverhampton taxation is another option.No, austerity was predicated on the notion that Conservatism understands the cost of everything and the value of nothing. Binning the Surestart programme has cost far more, both socially and financially than Osborne saved.And the Sayle comment is just a different kind of populism.But even when you give them what they want they demand more.And still the penny doesn't drop that it would be a good idea for 'decent' parties to take the concerns of those voters seriously.Reforms policy is just deport loads of people and that will solve everything. A section of the public who swallow this seem to be the same ones who decided Brexit was the answer to all of the UKs problems .The appeal of populism, of whatever flavour, is that it claims to offer easy solutions. "Your life sucks, but there's one easy trick that to turn it round, but THEY don't want to do it."A Fukker government is going to need to appoint a lot of peers very quickly. They obviously can't all come from the ranks of the Third Positionists, petty criminals, terminally unemployed and mentally ill that form the bulk of the Fukker membership. In those circumstances I could see a Fukker peerage being attractive to Lord Johnson of Uccle and Henly. Ditto other disgusting tory relicts like Chopey, Shappsie and IDS.Morning all. I was reflecting on this over the last few days. Not Boris going fukker (though joining a party which describes his primary hobby would be fun), the need for Reform to have capable people.
So far they seem to attract the mad, bad and dispossessed. We have seen in Reform councils how these people come a cropper when the rhetoric of "all the money is wasted on woke" splats against reality. They have no ideas other than bad ones based on fantasy, so actually turning things around becomes difficult.
Who are the people being lined up as fukker candidates for Westminster? The mad, bad and dispossessed. Should we be unlucky enough to have these fukkers in government, the only ones capable of doing anything are the ones who have already proven themselves to be unfit and incapable.
Which leaves the Lords. So far we have a former handmaid leading the party in Scotland as the highest profile. Is the intention to attract people from industry? Lets be honest, they'll be spivs won't they?
So back to Boris. Why on earth would he want to join that?
That's fine at a campaign rally, but hardly ever works in government. There's nearly always a very good reason for not doing the one eady trick; either it doesn't work or it comes with horrible consequences. That's when it gets... "interesting".
They got Brexit and all the Eastern Europeans went home with considerable economic damage to our country. Hurrah! Now they worry about immigration numbers, and as they drop down towards net zero, they are complaining that too many Isabel Oakeshotts leaving for Dubai is not a fair balance with the arrival of too many nurses from India.
So this ridiculous government panders to them again at great economic harm to our country. A failing health serve and social care, Universities bereft of the foreign student dollar. Hurrah. Next it will be their small boats win and then they will train their eye on people of the "wrong" cut who have been here for generations. Yet the Daily Mail reading squeezed middle flag wavers are having life with jam on it.
The poor who can't get a leg up have been gas lit for years. "It's the fault of the EU and foreigners, and that is why we need to be austere and cut all your services. It's them over there, not us who own newspapers and billion dollar hedge funds". It goes back to that Alexei Sayle joke that the World banking crisis was caused by too many libraries in Wolverhampton. And those who claim not to be listened to, believe the narrative..
The reality was something closer to "It turns out that the libraries in Wolverhampton were being paid for by the taxes on bankers doing stupid stuff. When the bubble burst, you lose your libraries, because the hospitals come first. Maybe do things different next time?"So ignore the bond markets while trying to borrow from them? It’s not very novel.No, austerity was predicated on the notion that Conservatism understands the cost of everything and the value of nothing. Binning the Surestart programme has cost far more, both socially and financially than Osborne saved.And the Sayle comment is just a different kind of populism.But even when you give them what they want they demand more.And still the penny doesn't drop that it would be a good idea for 'decent' parties to take the concerns of those voters seriously.Reforms policy is just deport loads of people and that will solve everything. A section of the public who swallow this seem to be the same ones who decided Brexit was the answer to all of the UKs problems .The appeal of populism, of whatever flavour, is that it claims to offer easy solutions. "Your life sucks, but there's one easy trick that to turn it round, but THEY don't want to do it."A Fukker government is going to need to appoint a lot of peers very quickly. They obviously can't all come from the ranks of the Third Positionists, petty criminals, terminally unemployed and mentally ill that form the bulk of the Fukker membership. In those circumstances I could see a Fukker peerage being attractive to Lord Johnson of Uccle and Henly. Ditto other disgusting tory relicts like Chopey, Shappsie and IDS.Morning all. I was reflecting on this over the last few days. Not Boris going fukker (though joining a party which describes his primary hobby would be fun), the need for Reform to have capable people.
So far they seem to attract the mad, bad and dispossessed. We have seen in Reform councils how these people come a cropper when the rhetoric of "all the money is wasted on woke" splats against reality. They have no ideas other than bad ones based on fantasy, so actually turning things around becomes difficult.
Who are the people being lined up as fukker candidates for Westminster? The mad, bad and dispossessed. Should we be unlucky enough to have these fukkers in government, the only ones capable of doing anything are the ones who have already proven themselves to be unfit and incapable.
Which leaves the Lords. So far we have a former handmaid leading the party in Scotland as the highest profile. Is the intention to attract people from industry? Lets be honest, they'll be spivs won't they?
So back to Boris. Why on earth would he want to join that?
That's fine at a campaign rally, but hardly ever works in government. There's nearly always a very good reason for not doing the one eady trick; either it doesn't work or it comes with horrible consequences. That's when it gets... "interesting".
They got Brexit and all the Eastern Europeans went home with considerable economic damage to our country. Hurrah! Now they worry about immigration numbers, and as they drop down towards net zero, they are complaining that too many Isabel Oakeshotts leaving for Dubai is not a fair balance with the arrival of too many nurses from India.
So this ridiculous government panders to them again at great economic harm to our country. A failing health serve and social care, Universities bereft of the foreign student dollar. Hurrah. Next it will be their small boats win and then they will train their eye on people of the "wrong" cut who have been here for generations. Yet the Daily Mail reading squeezed middle flag wavers are having life with jam on it.
The poor who can't get a leg up have been gas lit for years. "It's the fault of the EU and foreigners, and that is why we need to be austere and cut all your services. It's them over there, not us who own newspapers and billion dollar hedge funds". It goes back to that Alexei Sayle joke that the World banking crisis was caused by too many libraries in Wolverhampton. And those who claim not to be listened to, believe the narrative..
The reality was something closer to "It turns out that the libraries in Wolverhampton were being paid for by the taxes on bankers doing stupid stuff. When the bubble burst, you lose your libraries, because the hospitals come first. Maybe do things different next time?"
It comes back to my point about saving some cash by jettisoning Surestart has cost more over the medium term both financially and socially.
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
So, rather not on a Saturday morning but a quick stocktake on Iran. We have a vicious, deeply ideological Islamist regime, backs to the wall, intent on causing mayhem across the Middle East. We have a pumped-up belicose Israel hellbent on the same and with all the time and weapons in the world to do it. And then - the kicker, why this is a potential shitshow of the very highest order - we have in the White House a US president of astonishing emotional and intellectual immaturity, prone to impulse and easily manipulated, who is showing clear signs of becoming addicted to 'big man military options' projection. Worrying times and I'm worried.
kinabalu
2
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
Interesting you should mention Somerset Maugham. I was taking a walk on Cap Ferrat and a black squirrel ran across the road in front of me. I'm very interested in squirrels and have never come across a black one before. So I went back the next day and met someone who lived on the road and she said there was a colony of them which lived on that very short stretch of road. I went back several times but never saw another one."Sunny place for shady people"Putin vibes, but a bit more gay.Is Dubai some sort of holding facility for total tossers, a sort of Golgafrinchan Ark Fleet Ship B?
Not the most natural seat on a horse I’ve seen, but I bet the IRGC are quivering in their boots nevertheless.
https://x.com/thenotoriousmma/status/2032616114035769371?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
French Riviera when Somerset Maugham wrote those words. Presumably will be somewhere else after Dubai.
A couple of months later back in England at a doctors surgery waiting for a covid jab an old man started a conversation and said he was just back from France. 'Where'? I asked. "Cap Ferrat" he said. I then told him my black squirrel story and he said 'That's an even bigger coincidence. That's where I was staying!' He then told me that his daughter had married a man whose father owned the house next to Somerset Maugham's. 'If they invite me again I'll ask them if they've seen any black squirrels'
Sounds like a Somerset Maugham short story. Unfortunately that's where it ends
2
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
Having posed the question, "bombs or oil, who wins?" there is another question along similar linesIs there some way they could both lose?
The Iranians are evil, but not evidently stupid
The US are (also evil) but evidently very stupid
Who wins?
Trump and Khamanei, pistols at dawn? With the site of the duel being hit by something big and heavy?
ydoethur
1
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
NoPutin vibes, but a bit more gay.Is Dubai some sort of holding facility for total tossers, a sort of Golgafrinchan Ark Fleet Ship B?
Not the most natural seat on a horse I’ve seen, but I bet the IRGC are quivering in their boots nevertheless.
https://x.com/thenotoriousmma/status/2032616114035769371?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
You missed the point of the B Ark story. The “useless” people there were actually useful, but the A Ark people were arrogant enough to think they could decide who was useful.
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
Who have been pandered to since God was a child, and still are.Lol politics has been doing nothing but dancing to these numpties' tune for the last decade. Other voters are available.And still the penny doesn't drop that it would be a good idea for 'decent' parties to take the concerns of those voters seriously.Reforms policy is just deport loads of people and that will solve everything. A section of the public who swallow this seem to be the same ones who decided Brexit was the answer to all of the UKs problems .The appeal of populism, of whatever flavour, is that it claims to offer easy solutions. "Your life sucks, but there's one easy trick that to turn it round, but THEY don't want to do it."A Fukker government is going to need to appoint a lot of peers very quickly. They obviously can't all come from the ranks of the Third Positionists, petty criminals, terminally unemployed and mentally ill that form the bulk of the Fukker membership. In those circumstances I could see a Fukker peerage being attractive to Lord Johnson of Uccle and Henly. Ditto other disgusting tory relicts like Chopey, Shappsie and IDS.Morning all. I was reflecting on this over the last few days. Not Boris going fukker (though joining a party which describes his primary hobby would be fun), the need for Reform to have capable people.
So far they seem to attract the mad, bad and dispossessed. We have seen in Reform councils how these people come a cropper when the rhetoric of "all the money is wasted on woke" splats against reality. They have no ideas other than bad ones based on fantasy, so actually turning things around becomes difficult.
Who are the people being lined up as fukker candidates for Westminster? The mad, bad and dispossessed. Should we be unlucky enough to have these fukkers in government, the only ones capable of doing anything are the ones who have already proven themselves to be unfit and incapable.
Which leaves the Lords. So far we have a former handmaid leading the party in Scotland as the highest profile. Is the intention to attract people from industry? Lets be honest, they'll be spivs won't they?
So back to Boris. Why on earth would he want to join that?
That's fine at a campaign rally, but hardly ever works in government. There's nearly always a very good reason for not doing the one eady trick; either it doesn't work or it comes with horrible consequences. That's when it gets... "interesting".
Nice to have some redress for a change.
Taz
1
Re: Will Boris Johnson join Reform? – politicalbetting.com
I do that right now.This, I think, is what will kill off small charities reliant on volunteer leadership.We are constantly told that it is not good enough to comply with the regulations. You must record and document your compliance, and establish a paper trail which can be audited.It is basically impossible, in domestic small building (think loft conversion scale) to not be massively in breach of regulations. Because paying double for paperwork is simply not pssoible Mr & Mrs Miggin of No 32. Who just want to do a loft conversion so their son can have a proper room.I do not think it is possible for a solicitors’ firm (other than the very largest, who in turn, run the risk that they are so large that employees can go rogue), not to be in breach of some the absolute cascade of regulations to which they are now subject. And, I’m sure that goes for any number of businesses.Yet it is part of policy.That's a fair point, but it's one of communication and empathy, not so much of policy. In terms of "how to run the economy to best deliver a good life to people", the answer has settled a while back- a moderately open, moderately mixed economy. Everything else in the parameter space ends up worse.Populism is partly right. By and large, people in power in Western democracies don’t care for, or about, the people they govern. Their empathy (assuming they have any at all), is restricted to their peers.The appeal of populism, of whatever flavour, is that it claims to offer easy solutions. "Your life sucks, but there's one easy trick that to turn it round, but THEY don't want to do it."A Fukker government is going to need to appoint a lot of peers very quickly. They obviously can't all come from the ranks of the Third Positionists, petty criminals, terminally unemployed and mentally ill that form the bulk of the Fukker membership. In those circumstances I could see a Fukker peerage being attractive to Lord Johnson of Uccle and Henly. Ditto other disgusting tory relicts like Chopey, Shappsie and IDS.Morning all. I was reflecting on this over the last few days. Not Boris going fukker (though joining a party which describes his primary hobby would be fun), the need for Reform to have capable people.
So far they seem to attract the mad, bad and dispossessed. We have seen in Reform councils how these people come a cropper when the rhetoric of "all the money is wasted on woke" splats against reality. They have no ideas other than bad ones based on fantasy, so actually turning things around becomes difficult.
Who are the people being lined up as fukker candidates for Westminster? The mad, bad and dispossessed. Should we be unlucky enough to have these fukkers in government, the only ones capable of doing anything are the ones who have already proven themselves to be unfit and incapable.
Which leaves the Lords. So far we have a former handmaid leading the party in Scotland as the highest profile. Is the intention to attract people from industry? Lets be honest, they'll be spivs won't they?
So back to Boris. Why on earth would he want to join that?
That's fine at a campaign rally, but hardly ever works in government. There's nearly always a very good reason for not doing the one eady trick; either it doesn't work or it comes with horrible consequences. That's when it gets... "interesting".
But, populists rarely have good solutions.
The much harder question is how far the state should take from those who win in the lottery of life to support the losers. And we all have grimly predictable views on that, mostly predictable on the basis of whether we see ourselves as winners or losers.
The Optima's of our political tend to ideas such as "If a small business goes under because of increased taxes or regulation, it was a zombie business". And then are surprised at the lack of enthusiasm among the small business owners at the Circus Maximus on race day.
Between the dreary love of Process as a God and the psychosis of DOGE - you get a few wittering about John Lewis style service and government. But what we need is a radically *moderate* approach to reforming government so as to be a *service for people*
When Sir Johnny Ives came up with a design for a phone that didn't need a small but thick book (printed in a font too tiny to read) to operate, he sparked a revolution. And government is still stuck in the "Another 10,000 pages of rules will do it".
There is a belief that society can be perfected through regulations.
I had mine house done safely and to the intent of regs - insulation etc. The paperwork - no.
Two doors down, they've just had a nice cheap job done. It's will burn well, I think, when the electrics they've had bodged go.
But bad drives out good.
It’s debatable whether one would have any time left to practise law, if one did so.
You get all the liability (bear in mind: for no money or reward) and lots of criticism by people who don't lift a finger.
It is becoming very hard to find volunteers.



