Best Of

OK, nothing much new seems to be happening today, so here are some thoughts about what could happen longer term:

- there's a referendum to rejoin the EU in the late 2030s. Yes wins convincingly but not overwhelmingly and the government makes such a mess of the negotiations that membership quickly becomes unpopular again
- sometime in the second half of the century, our birthrate becomes so disastrous and is so immune to government meddling that the taboo against human cloning breaks down
- the follies and disasters of the Trump years are so obvious even to most Americans that America becomes a fairly reliable partner again after he goes
- Putin is succeeded by someone a bit less aggressive internationally, but just as corrupt internally. Russia stops menacing its neighbours but never reckons properly with its past
- after Xi Jinping dies, the Chinese realise that become a developed country is impossible without economic liberalisation. The Communist Party try to keep the process under control and avoid political liberalisation but fail and are deposed. China becomes a civilised country like a bigger Taiwan or Singapore.
- the AI "revolution" is not nearly all it's cracked up to be, especially in the jobs market. Some jobs are eliminated or simplified, but others become more complicated
- understanding consciousness remains elusive for the next century at least.

Of course these aren't projections, just things that could happen.

I gave that a like, even though I think a few are off target (I am just as likely as you to be wrong, of course).

Alternatively.

- There's a referendum in the late 2020s, and we rejoin the EU around the same time as Ukraine does. It proves a success.
- Birthrate becomes less of a concern thanks to automation and robotics. The smaller population benefits accordingly.
- The follies and disasters of Trump leads to a landslide against the GOP. It takes most of the next decade to fully convince the rest of the world he was just an aberration.
- Putin is succeeded by another autocrat. Russia doesn't change at all; but is contained by its neighbours, and becomes even poorer relative to the RoW.
- Xi dies. The CCC maintains its stranglehold on power. I have no idea what happens next.
- AI, despite remaining 'dumb' for the foreseeable future, completely reorders society.

…

I’m not asking for miracles. I’m asking for grown-up government: competent delivery, honest trade-offs, and outcomes you can measure. If you’re going to wrap yourself in Scottish pride and talk about our resource abundance, then show me the national project that turns that into shared prosperity. Otherwise it’s just branding. And I’m completely out of patience for branding.

Take the Scottish references out of that and you could easily be referring to the UK political scene as a whole. No wonder Reform and Greens are getting a hearing.

Ever since the financial crash things in the UK have, on many measures, stagnated or fallen behind. The leading political parties all have some responsibility for that.

In many respects that is what drove Brexit - and a fat load of good that has done for those that voted for it (excluding the retirees on final salary and triple locked state pensions).

Starmer promised that “grown up” government - and I do feel there is genuine intent - but his execution has been dreadful (and he often ends up simply reversing course). In many respects he is as much a prisoner of his own party and an irrational media as he is from his own shortcomings.

He doesn't seem to know how to navigate policies through the political system. Saying the Blob is stopping everything is an admission of failure.

All complex socio-political structures have multiple vested interests. Navigating policies through them is exactly what politicians are for.

…

I’m not asking for miracles. I’m asking for grown-up government: competent delivery, honest trade-offs, and outcomes you can measure. If you’re going to wrap yourself in Scottish pride and talk about our resource abundance, then show me the national project that turns that into shared prosperity. Otherwise it’s just branding. And I’m completely out of patience for branding.

Take the Scottish references out of that and you could easily be referring to the UK political scene as a whole. No wonder Reform and Greens are getting a hearing.

Ever since the financial crash things in the UK have, on many measures, stagnated or fallen behind. The leading political parties all have some responsibility for that.

In many respects that is what drove Brexit - and a fat load of good that has done for those that voted for it (excluding the retirees on final salary and triple locked state pensions).

Starmer promised that “grown up” government - and I do feel there is genuine intent - but his execution has been dreadful (and he often ends up simply reversing course). In many respects he is as much a prisoner of his own party and an irrational media as he is from his own shortcomings.

In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.

The opportunity existed after the massive GE defeat for the Tories to spend time thinking things through at the deepest level about what the party values, philosophy and principles were. They have reverted to squawky and shallow pragmatism. Not that other parties are better.

I accept that all sorts of rubbish is needed to win an election, but that same rubbish can't govern a country.

OTOH the commentary isn't much better. Ten thousand articles articulate the nature of the UK's political and national malaise but stop there. John Bew in the New Statesman this week 'The Great British Crisis' devotes about six pages to it going back 250 years. And stops at exactly the point where the reader wants to start.

In other news, a moment of clarity from my wife the other day, who reflected that politically we're pretty much Tories now. But could never admit it as would be ostracised and despised by friends and neighbours alike...

If someone could explain what being a Conservative (you can't say Tory, @HYUFD gets upset and he'll tell you Tory isn't the same as Conservative which it isn't) is these days, I'm probably about four or five iterations behind.

There are aspects of what Cameron called "liberal conservatism" I was happy to support and Conservatives can be quite sound on environmental matters (or they were because the climate change deniers and the anti-Net Zero types took over).

I was also happy with a lot of what Nick Hurd was proposing in terms of decentralisation but again that's all gone and we're back to the old "Westminster and Whitehall know best" top down centralisation beloved of the Thatcher/Major years.

Hegseth previously fired those who gave their assessment last year of the original “ mission accomplished “ regarding Irans nuclear capability.

They were fired for not reporting what the Dear Leader wanted to hear .

Also Politico reported Tuesday.

According to them, the staff of the Pentagon department responsible for developing, analyzing, and implementing methods for protecting civilians in military operations, which previously had about 200 employees, has been reduced by 90 percent. And only one out of ten employees remains in a similar department of the US Central Command (CENTCOM).

These units were supposed to investigate the circumstances of the recent attack on a girls' school in Iran.

According to Politico, the aforesaid staff cuts made to these units have significantly reduced the US ability to protect civilians during the largest airstrike in decades.

America is led by morons.

The mission won't be semi-accomplished until ground troops take the uranium, at the very least.

The mission won't be fully accomplished until there is regime change, which will also probably need ground troops.

That's not a reason to end the conflict, it is a reason to go much harder and do it properly. Which they're too frit to do. Incompetents.

A mere 20% of the US electorate agrees with you.
Along with around 5% of the UK public.

You've already demonstrated a complete ignorance of what's involved ("they should take Tehran" etc).

Give it a rest.

I’m proud of Scotland. Not in the performative “flag in bio” sense, but in the boring, inconvenient sense of having lived around the UK and choosing to build my life here.

For avoidance of doubt: I’m English, born in Liverpool. I’ve lived in Edinburgh for 20+ years. If Scotland’s “anyone can be Scottish if they choose to live here” means anything, then that’s the lane I’m in.

And I’m proud of what Scotland has in abundance. Energy, talent, universities, land, water, world-class natural assets, and the kind of cultural confidence most places would kill for. We’re not a poor country cosplaying as one.

Which is why I find it genuinely depressing that, since devolution, we’ve had so little to show for it in the things that actually matter: health outcomes, education outcomes, housing, infrastructure delivery, addiction and mental health, local services that work, and the general sense that the state can still build and run things competently. Plenty of blame to go around across administrations, but after almost 19 years in power the SNP own the results.

Instead, we’ve been served two decades of easy headline politics, with a constant drip-feed of “we’re so much better than the English” policies that look great on leaflets and terrible under a microscope. Free stuff that isn’t properly targeted. Symbolic wins that create hidden caps and unintended consequences. And a relentless constitutional focus that seems to crowd out the unglamorous work of making Scotland a better place to live.

I’m not asking for miracles. I’m asking for grown-up government: competent delivery, honest trade-offs, and outcomes you can measure. If you’re going to wrap yourself in Scottish pride and talk about our resource abundance, then show me the national project that turns that into shared prosperity. Otherwise it’s just branding. And I’m completely out of patience for branding.

And what makes it worse is I don’t see much that’s remotely hopeful in the opposition either. It’s fragmented, reactive, and often seems more interested in point-scoring than building a credible alternative. Don’t even get me started on the Greens