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Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
UK: X created a 'staggering amplification of hate' during the 2024 riots"open-source recommender algorithm found that the algorithm gives top priority to content that drives “conversation” even if that conversation is driven by misinformation or hate. This is exacerbated by the artificial amplification of posts from “premium” verified subscribers, which are paid accounts. "
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/press-releases/uk-x-created-staggering-amplification-hate-during-2024-riots
That is literally every social media algorithm. It is why every YouTuber says please please please comment on my video, I don't care if you are slagging me off, just comment.
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
It was still only the arrival of US troops in 1917 that led to the Hundred Days Offensive in 1918 that pushed the Germans back far enough to effectively win the war.The imperial German navy threw everything it had against the RN at Jutland because they understood it was the one chance to break the blockade that was strangling their country. When it didn't work the inevitable came to pass; by time the Americans got involved the German people were starving, the army could barely feed its horses and discipline in the navy had started to break down.
The war would have staggered on for a while without the Americans, but Germany was already defeated.
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
For those who think sanctions aren't worth itThe only way we can bring Russia to its knees is to insist they take on Rachel Reeves as Finance Minister
"Russia’s federal budget deficit in July 2025 grew by $15.1 billion, surpassing the finance ministry’s annual forecast by over 25 percent, the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reports. The deficit for the first seven months reached $61.5 billion, 4.5 times higher than last year."
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1954170174526857602
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Surprising to see that Tommy Robinson has a 24% popularity rating, with a further 14% being neutral.How many answered "what club does he play for ?"
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/explore/public_figure/Tommy_Robinson
How many people actually know who he is ?
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
I haven't read any of the articles, but there is far too much doomsterism about. We can be far too "everything's hunky-dory" and ignore problems; but we also can go too far the other way and say "everything's awful", when it really is not.Many of those who gleefully look forward to the end of days claim to be patriots. But it is a strange form of patriotism that declares the country essentially finished. This is still a long way from being true.Telegraph, Times and Tory BBC have published articles against Farage and doomsterism. Has Nige threatened a news tax?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/09/farage-and-the-prophets-of-doom-have-got-britain-wrong
Take climate change / green energy. We can look at our current situation and say "We've got to go further and faster, we're doing really badly and we're doomed,", or "we've done well so far, but there's further to go. Let's have another push!" Both could accurately sum up the current situation, but I think the latter is much more useful.
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
For those who think sanctions aren't worth it
"Russia’s federal budget deficit in July 2025 grew by $15.1 billion, surpassing the finance ministry’s annual forecast by over 25 percent, the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reports. The deficit for the first seven months reached $61.5 billion, 4.5 times higher than last year."
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1954170174526857602
"Russia’s federal budget deficit in July 2025 grew by $15.1 billion, surpassing the finance ministry’s annual forecast by over 25 percent, the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reports. The deficit for the first seven months reached $61.5 billion, 4.5 times higher than last year."
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1954170174526857602
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
One tactic Tommy Robinson and his Rebel Media backer, is deploying the Trump approach i.e. go on loads and loads of podcasts where they don't push him very hard on his dodgy background.
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Quite. There will be any number of big events between now and then which will move the dial for the parties.Yes. I don't think people are fully grasping the heft of the chunk of time which must flow between here and 2029. That's not next year, or the year after, or even the year after that. It's an eternity, esp in a world as volatile as this.The campaign to stop Nigel Farage becoming next PM isn't going too well is it.They've led the polling for 3.5 months. Ed Miliband led convincingly for 2.5 years and flopped to a big defeat.
There's a serious case of immediacy bias in this parliament
Nigel Farage is not 'marching to power'. With pretty much everything going for him atm, and under no scrutiny, and with his propagandists working like energiser bunnies, he has a nice little lead in the polls for something that is not even on the horizon let alone in clear view.
Labour will benefit from being the government, the Tories from being HMO at times. Reform won't keep everyone absolutely raging about immigration for 4 years and will have to show they can run things at council and devolved levels as well as present a plan for government.
If things are like this after next years voting then perhaps their support is hard. As it stands, they benefit from dissatisfaction and NOTA
Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
The campaign to stop Nigel Farage becoming next PM isn't going too well is it.

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Re: The latest next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Yes. I don't think people are fully grasping the heft of the chunk of time which must flow between here and 2029. That's not next year, or the year after, or even the year after that. It's an eternity, esp in a world as volatile as this.The campaign to stop Nigel Farage becoming next PM isn't going too well is it.They've led the polling for 3.5 months. Ed Miliband led convincingly for 2.5 years and flopped to a big defeat.
There's a serious case of immediacy bias in this parliament
Nigel Farage is not 'marching to power'. With pretty much everything going for him atm, and under no scrutiny, and with his propagandists working like energiser bunnies, he has a nice little lead in the polls for something that is not even on the horizon let alone in clear view.

1