Best Of

Both Owen Jones and Nigel Farage are calling for the repeal of the Online Safety Act.

Is this good or bad for the Act’s probability of survival? I honestly can’t tell any more.

There are some issues that unite left and right?

They are both worshippers of Onan?

They're both Very Very Online.

For Very Online People, this is existential. It's saying that the ground on which you have built a chunk of your life is so toxic as to be uninhabitable by healthy people.

Understandable that some people are taking that badly.

(If you want the naughty bits without shame, whether it's seeing the contents of people's underwear or the ability to proclaim fruity opinions, just put your details in. If you're worried about the resulting shame, that's your conscience telling you something that web culture has falsely encouraged you to ignore.)

Given how broken seat calculators are in uncharted territory and soon to be 5.5 party politics, some proper regional polling would be very useful to identify exactly where the Reform surge is strongest, Labour collapse most precipitous and where the Con vote is holding up better (and if the LDs are retaining their southern vote at 2024 levels)

The LDs are polling a couple of points higher than at the last General Election. I suspect, therefore, that they will be holding on to their vote in pretty much all their current seats. Nevertheless, they will probably lose a few seats to Reform in the South West, while picking up some in the South East where the fracturing of the right allows them to sneak up the middle (so to speak).

Were a General Election to be held today, I would expect them to make modest net gains - i.e. 5 to 10 seats - while Reform swept to a majority.

Local election results don't, so far, tend to suggest direct LD to Reform seat changes. In the South and SW council areas up in May, my impression is Reform did well in areas without much LD presence, and LDs well where they won in 2024.

At the moment, Lib Dem areas seem relatively immune to Farage's charms in that they are already the established "none of the above" choice. If Reform hoovered up the Tories more fully, it could be another story. But, just now, LDs will just be be happy to see a split right wing vote in these places.

If you're looking to where the Conservatives can hold out against Reform, I think it would be upscale eurosceptic seats where the Lib Dems can't make much headway. Some such seats are quite rural (eg North Yorkshire, Scottish borders), some have large Jewish or Indian populations (eg parts of Greater London, and Hertsmere).

I'd say there are roughly 40 such seats.

There may be some very odd results next time if we get a result nationally with 6 parties on 5% plus and under 30% (4 of them on teens to 30) - 35% will probably win most seats, 30% will win a lot of them (in those circumstances). So, for your example, it's about identifying where the Tories can get 35% plus out to vote.or, perhaps, where they shove what resources they have in to get the 35% out.
If Reform go above 30% then the Tories options collapse very swiftly.

Given how broken seat calculators are in uncharted territory and soon to be 5.5 party politics, some proper regional polling would be very useful to identify exactly where the Reform surge is strongest, Labour collapse most precipitous and where the Con vote is holding up better (and if the LDs are retaining their southern vote at 2024 levels)

The LDs are polling a couple of points higher than at the last General Election. I suspect, therefore, that they will be holding on to their vote in pretty much all their current seats. Nevertheless, they will probably lose a few seats to Reform in the South West, while picking up some in the South East where the fracturing of the right allows them to sneak up the middle (so to speak).

Were a General Election to be held today, I would expect them to make modest net gains - i.e. 5 to 10 seats - while Reform swept to a majority.

Local election results don't, so far, tend to suggest direct LD to Reform seat changes. In the South and SW council areas up in May, my impression is Reform did well in areas without much LD presence, and LDs well where they won in 2024.

At the moment, Lib Dem areas seem relatively immune to Farage's charms in that they are already the established "none of the above" choice. If Reform hoovered up the Tories more fully, it could be another story. But, just now, LDs will just be be happy to see a split right wing vote in these places.

Devon and Cornwall is probably where Reform can win seats off the Lib Dems. Somerset, and the Cotswolds seems secure for them..

Starmer says UK will recognise Palestinian statehood in September unless Israel agrees ceasefire and two-state solution

Downing Street has just issued its readout of today’s cabinet meeting on Gaza.

Here is the key extract.

Turning to recognition, the prime minister said it had been this government’s longstanding position that recognition of a Palestinian state was an inalienable right of the Palestinian people and that we would recognise a Palestinian state as part of a process to peace and a two state solution.

He said that because of the increasingly intolerable situation in Gaza and the diminishing prospect of a peace process towards a two state solution, now was the right time to move this position forward. He said that the UK will recognise the state of Palestine in September, before UNGA, unless the Israeli government takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza, reaches a ceasefire, makes clear there will be no annexation in the West Bank, and commits to a long-term peace process that delivers a two state solution. He reiterated that there is no equivalence between Israel and Hamas and that our demands on Hamas remain, that they must release all the hostages, sign up to a ceasefire, accept that they will play no role in the government of Gaza, and disarm.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/jul/29/uk-politics-latest-news-cabinet-keir-starmer-nigel-farage-online-safety-act

I wonder if this was coordinated with the French? They do it, we threaten to do it,