Best Of

Well, at least the Tories have found their floor?

Broadly. Imo, Labour continue to leak support, Tories are still at 'core' but certainty to vote amongst core firming (thus bumping VI) alongside Badenochs figures improving, Greens picking up WNV/DNV, Corbyn curious and Labour defectors which is restricting Reform/taking some of their 'NOTA' who are near ceiling and LDs are drifting somewhat aimlessly whilst they work out best approach

I'd mostly agree, except I would say the LDs are drifting aimlessly so much as have maxed out their support. Despite the common accusation at election time being they are no different from Labour that's not how they are perceived in many places, and they've already swept most of the southern anti-Tory vote, whilst those areas who want more exciting non-Tory options have Reform, Greens, or Corbyn's mob (plus PC and SNP in specific regions).

Certainly the LDs have a tricky job to advance. How well they defend whats currently theirs will be interesting

The good news for the Lib Dems is they scarcely register in 550 seats. It makes it easy to concentrate resources in the 72 seats they hold, and the 30 they have a fair chance in.

The bad news is that's the limit. They have a substantial niche vote, of well to do, centrist voters. But, they have very little appeal beyond that niche.

Thats simply not true. LD votes are heavily weighted to certain seats for sure, but the demographics of the LD vote are much less skewed by other demographic markers such as age, SE class, education etc than other parties, at least in England.

There's a lot more potential LD voters out there if they can be convinced that LDs have a decent chance of winning.

The LD vote is now unbelievably soft and squeezable, and a product of anti-Tory tactical voting more than anything else.

You can now find examples of seats where their vote share goes from 5% to 45% or vice versa within a few years. There are neighbouring, demographically similar seats where the LD vote goes up in one but down in the other, and Labour does the opposite. The only plausible explanation for this non-uniformity is highly coordinated tactical voting and targeting. Collusion, really.

The days of the genuine Liberal strongholds in the SW and Celtic fringes are long gone. You'd have to go back to a time when they were actually a Liberal party...

Yes, yes, you don’t like the Liberal Democrats. What did they do - have the temerity to win your Conservative constituency last time?

As you clearly struggle with politics, let me help you. Yes, to some extent the LD and Labour votes are related and yes you can argue they are an anti-Conservative vote, however hard you may struggle with the concept some people in 2024 didn’t like the Conservatives or want them to remain in Government.

You can also argue the Conservative vote is largely an anti-Labour vote but you now have a problem called Reform because once the Conservatives were the only home for those dissatisfied with Labour but now who needs the Tories and their 14 years of abject failure and self indulgence when you can vote for Reform and Nigel who tells it how it is.

That may explain why a third of those who voted Conservative in July 2024 will now vote Reform so you can now see the LD vote might be “soft and squeezable” but so are both the Labour and Conservative 2024 votes as well. The only parties holding on to the bulk of their 2024 voters are Reform and the Greens - Tory and LD retention is in the 60s per cent, Labour in the high 40s.

What comes over at this PMQs is Starmer's utter obsession with Farage and Reform

Dinner Party politics.

He ought to be obsessed with tackling the issues that are leading to Reform's rise. Reduce immigration, grow the economy so that living standards rise for all.

He has reduced immigration.

Lol. Put that on a bus and see how it goes down.....

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2025

Net immigration year ending March 2023 = 944,000
Net immigration year ending June 2025 = 204,000

That's a 78% drop. If you want reduced immigration, Starmer has absolutely delivered reduced immigration. And the figures are still trending downwards.

Why miss out 2024 which was 345,000

The reduction is the result of the conservative tightening rules and little to do with Starmer

The fact still remains it was the Conservatives who oversaw a massive spike in immigration by far the biggest increase ever.

Also, there were several on here in 2023/24 who claimed a Labour government would introduce an open doors immigration policy. Many of the same group who told us the IMF would be running the country by now.

Labour have been disappointing but still a huge improvement on the previous government.

LOL. Not sure the public agree with you on that. Y'know, the people who vote....

You may well be right on if you are commenting on the last point... although the Tories don't seem to be riding high in the polls either. I think the mood of many is 'a plague on both your houses'.

There seems to be a general ennui or sense of disillusion across Western democracies. It's not justified imo - life for most in the West is objectively pretty good relative to the past or to the rest of the world - but justification doesn't really come into emotional responses.

I am genuinely intrigued about what is driving the mood. I've quite enjoyed the recent BBC Civilisations Rise and Fall series, despite its many flaws - I at least have learnt some new things. My overriding impression though is that all great civilisations implode in the end. Maybe now is our time.

Well, at least the Tories have found their floor?

Broadly. Imo, Labour continue to leak support, Tories are still at 'core' but certainty to vote amongst core firming (thus bumping VI) alongside Badenochs figures improving, Greens picking up WNV/DNV, Corbyn curious and Labour defectors which is restricting Reform/taking some of their 'NOTA' who are near ceiling and LDs are drifting somewhat aimlessly whilst they work out best approach

I'd mostly agree, except I would say the LDs are drifting aimlessly so much as have maxed out their support. Despite the common accusation at election time being they are no different from Labour that's not how they are perceived in many places, and they've already swept most of the southern anti-Tory vote, whilst those areas who want more exciting non-Tory options have Reform, Greens, or Corbyn's mob (plus PC and SNP in specific regions).

Certainly the LDs have a tricky job to advance. How well they defend whats currently theirs will be interesting

The good news for the Lib Dems is they scarcely register in 550 seats. It makes it easy to concentrate resources in the 72 seats they hold, and the 30 they have a fair chance in.

The bad news is that's the limit. They have a substantial niche vote, of well to do, centrist voters. But, they have very little appeal beyond that niche.

I would expect the LibDems to gain seats at the next General Election, so long as Conservative/Reform continue to split the right wing vote.

1. Other than Reform, they are -by far- the biggest winners in local elections this year. Their activist base is therefore good a
2. Smaller parties with concentrated votes do really well when their opponents votes are dispersed. If Conservative and Labour get 20% of the vote each, and the Greens 15%, and it's widely distributed, while the LibDems get 12.5%, but 80% of that is in 150 constituencies, then that really plays in their favour.
3. The LibDems are strongest where Reform is weakest. This is their real trump card - because it means the hurdle they need to get over is that much smaller.

That said, I'd expect their gains to be pretty modest: say 5-15 seats, and would be a combination of 20 new seats, and losing 10 to Reform.

Accidental racism from Starmer.

https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/2001262534545092623

Keir Starmer: "I have a Christmas message for Reform. If mysterious men from the east come bearing gifts...this time, report it to the police."

I see the intention... but it doesn't really work as a joke.

One of Starmer's biggest problems is that he seems entirely humourless. It is basically impossible to warm to him unless you're also a paid up member of the Fabian Human Rights Lawyer Lanyard Class

Ooh lanyards again! This is the edgy content we come here for.

I've worked in plenty of private sector offices where keycards were used. I never saw the need to wear it around my neck; nor did my colleagues. Isn't that what wallets are for holding?

A classic example of why personal anecdote us no measure of objective reality. I have never worked in an office where you didn't have to display your ID card at all times. It is considered a fundamental part of data security

I'm now very worried about the firms where Mortimer worked. I hope none of them are my banks, insurance companies, etc.

Accidental racism from Starmer.

https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/2001262534545092623

Keir Starmer: "I have a Christmas message for Reform. If mysterious men from the east come bearing gifts...this time, report it to the police."

I see the intention... but it doesn't really work as a joke.

One of Starmer's biggest problems is that he seems entirely humourless. It is basically impossible to warm to him unless you're also a paid up member of the Fabian Human Rights Lawyer Lanyard Class

Ooh lanyards again! This is the edgy content we come here for.

I've worked in plenty of private sector offices where keycards were used. I never saw the need to wear it around my neck; nor did my colleagues. Isn't that what wallets are for holding?

Personally I had it embedded in the back of my wrist for maximum productivity enhancement

Back of the neck works better. Wrists can be severed.

You are Bud from The Diamond Age...

...a copy of which lies within reach of my outstretched hand. Paperback, 1995 edition