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Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
You called it wrong. Badly.Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
Show some humility and admit it.
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Really disappointing result for Restore. They'll shortly join Alba and Change UK in the discarded parties bin, which in many ways is the best news of the night.So many US alt right figures, like Asmongold or Elon Musk, will be very confused as they've bee told the public want Restore.
kle4
1
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
It’s all over for Starmer .Oh come, come, come.
All roads lead to Burnham becoming PM so he really should accept the inevitable.
Politics is a cruel game but rightly or wrongly most of the public seem to viscerally loathe Starmer and it’s hard to see how you could turn that around .
Whether Burnhams better popularity can survive when he becomes PM is another matter .
This result is a triumph for Starmer. Could Burnham have won without a popular figure like SKS in Number Ten?
rcs1000
6
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
Foxy
1
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Strange feeling to wake up to good news. Let’s hope Burnham can pull a British Carney.
We’re in a presidential politics age , albeit one layered over a parliamentary system.
We’re in a presidential politics age , albeit one layered over a parliamentary system.
Jonathan
1
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
As you yourself pointed out the biggest forces in British politics at the moment are the anti-Starmer and anti-Farage tactical votes. So there’s no shame in being the beneficiary of another form of tactical voting in Scotland.Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.Yes, it's pretty clear a lot of that Conservative vote isn't really "real" but tactical unionist voting from Labour and LDs.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
Still, a win is a win.
DougSeal
3
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
It’s all over for Starmer .Will Starmer make it to July 5th?
All roads lead to Burnham becoming PM so he really should accept the inevitable.
Politics is a cruel game but rightly or wrongly most of the public seem to viscerally loathe Starmer and it’s hard to see how you could turn that around .
Whether Burnhams better popularity can survive when he becomes PM is another matter .
The inertia is so marked he needs to go immediately, but should he be given his two years as a consolation prize?
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
If someone makes two predictions and one fails and the other comes off at longer than evens, that's still a good result.A bit of caution @Andy_JS also predicted a cliffhanger/recount in Makerfield. While some of us predicted that Burnham would comfortably win with a majority greater than the Restore vote.Good morning, everyone.@Andy_JS . After almost ten years to the day he nailed Brexit.
I forget who tipped it alas, but thanks to whoever mentioned the Conservatives at 3 or so for Aberdeen South
Well done to Kemi and the Conservatives. It would otherwise have been their night.
If I hadn't been feeling pessimistic and backed Conservatives yesterday at 4.5 in Aberdeen South it would've been even better.
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
A bit of caution @Andy_JS also predicted a cliffhanger/recount in Makerfield. While some of us predicted that Burnham would comfortably win with a majority greater than the Restore vote.Good morning, everyone.@Andy_JS . After almost ten years to the day he nailed Brexit.
I forget who tipped it alas, but thanks to whoever mentioned the Conservatives at 3 or so for Aberdeen South
Well done to Kemi and the Conservatives. It would otherwise have been their night.
Foxy
1
Re: The polls close, now the spin and expectations management – politicalbetting.com
Congrats to Andy_JS for getting all three results correct (albeit not Burnham’s majority).Good morning, everyone.@Andy_JS . After almost ten years to the day he nailed Brexit.
I forget who tipped it alas, but thanks to whoever mentioned the Conservatives at 3 or so for Aberdeen South
Well done to Kemi and the Conservatives. It would otherwise have been their night.

