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Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)

FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.

And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.

They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.

Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.

I'll have to listen to that. As I mentioned the spat was with Tim Montgomerie, who is perhaps trying to demonstrate his new Reform credentials (joined last December?).

My view is that Reform deal precisely in dog whistles and fictional narratives, to the exclusion of much else.

"Illegal immigrants in 4* hotels" is one such, as is "Two Tier Keir", and others.

Those who now have Reform Councils are about to find that out, because the Councillors in said Councils are about to discover that Farage's windy rhetoric does not quite fit reality as it exists outside the political rally, the pub, or the TV studio - so they will need to shout even more loudly to give the impression of doing something.

I'm currently wondering how I can tackle a Reform lead Notts County Council to further a mobility aid accessible network of Public Rights of Way and other paths, in accordance with the law. I need to 4 dimensional chess, and influencing strategies.

Nigel has declared war on one of the pieces of legislation that requires the Local Highways Authority to provide access, but it's also his own voter base which he will increasingly be taking rights away from. And one of his positions depends on the Supreme Courts clarified understanding of the Equality Act which he is out to destroy.

He needs some 4-dimensional chess as well if he isn't going to shoot himself in both feet.

Yep - that's the issue with Reform they generate lies that are very easy to sell and almost impossible to disprove because the people the lies are targeted at don't care enough to listen to reality.

It's very much Trump's audience where America shows only reality will demonstrate to people the reality involved.

Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)

FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.

And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.

They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.

Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.

I'll have to listen to that. As I mentioned the spat was with Tim Montgomerie, who is perhaps trying to demonstrate his new Reform credentials (joined last December?).

My view is that Reform deal precisely in dog whistles and fictional narratives, to the exclusion of much else.

"Illegal immigrants in 4* hotels" is one such, as is "Two Tier Keir", and others.

Those who now have Reform Councils are about to find that out, because the Councillors in said Councils are about to discover that Farage's windy rhetoric does not quite fit reality as it exists outside the political rally, the pub, or the TV studio - so they will need to shout even more loudly to give the impression of doing something.

I'm currently wondering how I can tackle a Reform lead Notts County Council to further a mobility aid accessible network of Public Rights of Way and other paths, in accordance with the law. I need to 4 dimensional chess, and influencing strategies.

Nigel has declared war on one of the pieces of legislation that requires the Local Highways Authority to provide access, but it's also his own voter base which he will increasingly be taking rights away from. And one of his positions depends on the Supreme Courts clarified understanding of the Equality Act which he is out to destroy.

He needs some 4-dimensional chess as well if he isn't going to shoot himself in both feet.

Interesting that Lucy Powell has chosen to apologise for accusing Reform of using a dog whistle. It clearly was and it's the way right wing Nazi Parties have always worked. A nod and a wink.

The interesting thing is why she apologised. Was she asked to by Starmer? I sincerely hope not. The audience gave her the biggest cheer of the day. If it was Starmer then it's time Labour got a leader with a backbone or they'll be chasing Reform all the way to defeat at the next election

I have concluded on Friday morning that Labour's problem is Starmer followed closely by Reeves.

The left hate them for being Tory-lite and the right hate them for not being Tory enough.

They have had nearly a year and from what I can see they have done nothing of substance, and if they have done anything, their comms are so poor they haven't told us about it.

I am wondering whether BJO wasn't right all along and the King over the water (whom I despise) might be the answer.

BJO is a Corbynite - in what way is Corbyn the answer?

You’re right about Starmer though. It isn’t the crap showing in the locals it’s the response. Further and faster. Supposedly their policies are good and virtuous and once actually enacted will make everybody happy. Which is crap.

I heard one minister on the News Agents singing about primary school breakfast clubs. A worthy policy. But one where delivery will transform the country? Please…

Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)

FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.

And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.

They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.

Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.

Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.

We no longer have the ability to change minds via argument - good luck doing that in a social media world where people are drawn to a rightwing echo chamber via clickbait...

It’s not just right wing on social media it’s left wing too. It’s polarised extremes. A lot of the negative reaction to Labour on PIP and WFA is coming on social media from left wing commentators. My local Facebook groups have been unreadable ahead of the local elections. Reform supporters v Anti Reform with extreme invective and no middle ground.

There are alot of grifters out there making a living out of spouting extreme shite on social media. Great for them. Not so good for informed debate.

After this week I cannot see how Labour can even look at reforming the triple lock.

What a wonderful notion of an alternative universe where Thatcherism didn't thrive. I see the Tory faithful are correcting your fanciful narrative already.

So if I too can muse on had Labour won in 1978.

Labour were so broken it would not have taken long for the fractures to erupt. So if I can take up your narrative that Whitelaw wins the snap election and drives Eurofederalism forward from a UK perspective maybe the later malign influence on the EU from a bitter Thatcher would never have transposed itself into Nigel Farage. English would be the language of the EU and the federal currency of choice would be the pound. British Leyland completed a takeover of VAG, Daimler Benz and BMW and British Steel makes all the steel for shipyards on the Clyde and in Belfast to make frigates for the Pan European Navy. And then I woke up...

Great, thought provoking article mind.

Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)

FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.

And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.

They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.

Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.

Left behind communities? Someone was commenting about pit villages in Durham and wondering if they would have existed were it not for the pits. So how do you replace the economic engine of a community if a) the skills base is not there and b) the resources aren't either. Is this a 'sunk cost fallacy' which needs a government to take action to recreate communities where there is some economic driver? Are Labour's new towns the model for this?

Spent some time in rural Japan last month going through villages where the population has moved out to the city leaving a 10's of people where there were 100's. Japan does have legislation where they will pay to move communities and consolidate them where there is a pressing need / economic cost. So 'left behind' communities need not be left behind.

Not only is the skills base not there anyone young and bright and ambitious won’t stay around. They’ll just move on.

Whilst I increased my vote slightly by 171 (2021 share in brackets) by persuading Labour and Green voters to support me against the Conservatives clearly our tactics of not mentioning Reform were a mistake. The Reform candidate did not put out any literature. From a few hours standing at polling stations, I think that many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time. I expect in future elections to expend effort encouraging non voters (turnout was 38%) of the dangers of not voting.

County Council result Bruntingthorpe Division (very rural South Leicestershire)
Reform 34% (New)
Conservative 31% (60%)
Liberal Democrat 21% (18%)
Labour 7% (13%)
Green 7% (9%)

FPT-ing @Icarus in order to highlight this: many of the Reform voters did not usually bother to vote in local elections but had turned out this time.

This supports two contentions: Reform is NOTA; Reform support was underestimated by most pollsters and canvassers because they miss (or avoid or discount) habitual non-voters.

And hence if Reform sells out to, or turns into, the ‘old politics’, many of those folks will go back to sitting polling day out in their armchairs.

They may well find the next vehicle for their desire for someone to listen to them.

Exactly.

The thing is Reform may or may not have the answers. However to lots of left behind communities at least Reform are talking to them. All they get from the other parties and their supporters is being told they’re stupid etc etc. Hardly a plan to win these voters back.

I’m pleased to see some in Labour get it, like my MP. But then you have Lucy Powell and her performance on AQ’s to show Labour has a long way to go.

Labour didn’t have answers
The Conservatives didn’t have the answers
Reform don’t have the answers

In this progression, I see little reason for cost duopoly to resume.

In a democracy, you have two choices.

1) (Pretend to) Give the people what they want.
2) Or change their minds with argument.

I’m waiting for the politicians to realise that the first method has run out of road.

And the second is way harder than we like to imagine.

Take the 1979 confidence debate in the header. Great oratory, top-notch argument, but purely ornamental. Every single vote was pre-determined, and all that mattered was that the SNP smelt an opportunity.

When the debate comes down to "we're in a hole and it's going to hurt everyone to climb out of it" vs. "we're in a hole because the bad guys are holding us there", the second proposition has a massive head start. Much easier to blame someone else than our own unwise decisions. And that includes mine.