Best Of

https://x.com/breezeblast/status/2005225565188723194?s=46

“Unfortunately the Iranian nuclear project isn’t dedicated to the extermination of the white man”.

For all the handwringing this morning about Trump, at least he instinctively knows that swathes of the west are committing societal suicide by pandering to these guys. Thanks to our woke immigration policies from Blair onwards, we have become a sewer for the human effluent that autocracies everywhere (correctly) want rid of.

Even at Xmas time, you can’t restrain yourself from calling refugees “human effluent”? What would Jesus do?

Chuckle. He’s a guy who has repeatedly incited racially based violence and murder including against children. I have no problem calling him human effluent and look forward to the next government deporting him.

But you didn’t call this one person “effluent”. You used that term about a large number of refugees from “Blair onwards”.

IDS now regrets signing the letter supporting the Egyptian dissident.

If only he’d had the presence of mind to look into his social media rather than just sign what came across his desk that may make him look good.

https://x.com/mpiainds/status/2005237227962401162?s=61

I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.

Though I doubt Labour voters will care and Tories need some Labour tactical votes in seats Reform are challenging the Tory incumbent

I don't see Labour voters who want to avoid a right wing Reform Government will be minded to vote for candidates representing a right wing Conservative Party.

Well you are wrong.

Yougov found 22% of Labour voters would tactically vote Conservative in a Conservative v Reform marginal seat. That number would likely be higher if say Cleverly was Tory leader
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51713-is-tactical-voting-more-of-a-threat-or-opportunity-for-reform-uk

22% of 14% (FoN) total next GE voter intention is what, circa 3%?

Divided by the proportion who live in a Tory/Reform marginal of course.

And I imagine most of those will still be giving a Labour VI.

Most but a quarter of Labour and LD voters tactically voting for their Tory MP could be enough for them to hold a seat Reform would otherwise win

I think there is a case to be made that many who lambast Trump actually agree with what he says but daren't admit it to themselves and their friends.

Go on, then, make the case.

Are you calling it "silent Trump syndrome"?

Sort of.. its your job to dispute what I say. How many Democrats think there's too many illegal immigrants.. too much shite being imported from China at or below cost probably....

There have been lots of people worried about the scale of US (and European) imports from China for many years. I also "agree" with Trump on motherhood and apple pie being good things.

This is not a concession to his world view or politics at all, or a sign that he was willing to say things out loud that other people thought but weren't willing to say.

I don't get the argument that being worried about a trade deficit with China is a uniquely Trumpian idea.

I understand the mindset of the Chinese communist party reasonably well having seen it up close. There are wings within it that have considered themselves at war with the US (ergo the west) for basically the whole 21st century. Much of their economic policy should be seen through this lens. The hoots of derision when that wet George Osborne rolled out the red carpet for them in London still ring in my ears today. I recall too Condi Rice apologising to a conference in Asia, for admitting China to the WTO, as the gravest mistake of the GW Bush era.

Trump’s focus on China is merely reflective of how I imagine the US security apparatus sees the world. Much of his foreign policy needs to be seen through this prism, that the US now considers itself in a great power struggle with an openly hostile budding superpower. So it is busy reshaping the global map and tying up loose ends and distractions.

At what cost though?

The same objectives could have been achieved without threatening Canada and Greenland and breaking the western alliance

IDS now regrets signing the letter supporting the Egyptian dissident.

If only he’d had the presence of mind to look into his social media rather than just sign what came across his desk that may make him look good.

https://x.com/mpiainds/status/2005237227962401162?s=61

I think IDS and Cleverly have got away with this one. BBC reporting "Conservatives" are wholly opposed to his return. Jenrick gets a specific name check. Starmer as the incumbent takes 100% of the responsibility for this.

I think Starmer and Labour get away with it due to the time of year and no one really cares about the news.

They’re lucky.

IDS’s retraction really reflects poorly on his judgement.

This is worth a watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yN3GSMjsIY

Canada were extremely fortunate to have the option of a genuinely competent and serious crisis manager at the time that their erstwhile closest ally, the US, was going off the rails and they took it. The refusal of Canada to submit to American bullying and responding in practical ways is both an object lesson for us and an inspiration of where we need to go. The United States is no longer a serious country. If they were they would not have elected Donald J Trump once, let alone twice. They are not a reliable friend, they are not really a friend at all.

Starmer has considered it his duty (no doubt with enormous personal distaste) to suck up to Trump, to shower him with flattery and praise and take trivial handouts in return. Carney has shown what serious people do when faced with such a disastrous change in a once reliable friend. It is a better path both for self respect and for practical results. It is the path we should follow.

One I missed.

Mr Starmer's Government are planning a Coup de Kent.

They say the aim is to create a pretext for ministers to send in a central government commissioner to take over all or part of its operations.

Mr Tice said: “We have strong reason to believe what they’re trying to do is sow a loss of confidence in one of our councils and they’ve targeted Kent.

“We’re very suspicious they’re going to send in commissioners on a spurious narrative – either over the Christmas period or immediately into the New Year – and take control of the council, saying we’re incompetent and can’t run it.
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/reform-accuses-labour-of-plotting-coup-for-control-of-kcc-334231/

(Politically, I think they will be operating with 10 bargepoles joined together end to end.)

Finger on the pulse of Kent from his desert tent.
Here's an idea. Stop people imagining you might be incompetent by being competent.

Surely it’s down to the voters to pass judgement when the time comes rather than political opponents ?

Listening to the clip in the header, istm to be startlingly complacent. To wit:

"You look at some of his biggest policy achievements from this past year — the elimination of Iran’s nuclear capacities, cracking down on the southern border, basically eliminating illegal immigration across the southern border, keeping women’s spaces for women — these are all issues where he is not just above water with voters, he’s overwhelmingly supported by 80% to 90% of Americans on these key issues.”

This is a few days before health insurance premiums start spiking by amounts varying from 10% (for some employer funded programmes) to 114% (on average) for the 24 million people on Affordable Care programmes (roughly household incomes under 60-90k depending on how many people).

I'm not sure if "strikes on Iran" will be a dominant political question, no matter how many wars Mr Trump invents.

I can’t wait til this fucking clown show is over.

I’m hoping the Supreme Court hands his his ass on tariffs.

I'm with you on that one.

I'm still sticking to my view that what it will really need is another period of similar import to reconstruction, as happened with the three Constitutional Amendments (13, 14, 15) from the 1960s which were subsequently - if I have my history right - undermined by Jim Crow laws.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconstruction_Amendments

The new fed chair is going to be a Trump loyalist so expect rate cuts, QE and stubborn inflation.

Position accordingly.

Hopefully he loses the house and we have a couple of years of not a lot.

Morning all

The truth is all the traditional "centre right" have left is the fact Trump annoys "the lefties" so much so they can troll away on that to their heart's content rather than asking themselves why the opposition to the "centre left" is now coming from the populists like Farage and Trump rather than from traditional conservatives like Badenoch.

I don't think it's controversial to say that the population in most democracies has turned away from centrist politicians, for understandable reasons, and that right-wing populists have been more successful at winning the support of discontented voters than left-wing populists.

Can't blame Righties for consoling themselves with that. I'm sure I'd feel the same if the roles were reversed.

Not in Canada or Australia earlier this year where the centre left won, nor in the French legislative elections where the far left won most seats.

Only in Argentina and Italy and Israel beyond the US have the rightwing populists clearly won in terms of the developed world

... and Chile