Best Of

Morning all

It looks as though the MIlburn Report will be a damning indictment of failure of successive Governments who have seriously compromised the future propects of a generation.

When I was in local Government, and I confess I was only on the periphery of this, there was a requirement for every 16-18 year old certainly to be either in work, education, training or on some scheme. The Council partnered with a provider and used space at local libraries and youth centres to run the training.

It's always been the way (well, it was when I graduated back in the late Permian) employers are reluctant to take on staff, however well qualified, without experience and you can't get that experience without a job. The public sector did its bit - we took on trainees in a number of the professions and supported them through their qualifications in the sure knowledge once they got their accreditation, they would be off to a much better paid job in the private sector.

There was of course a time when every graduate became a barista but I suspect that's not the case. I worked in betting shops marking the board as was the fashion in the Triassic.

There's a lot of talk about apprenticeships and that has to be the way to go for those less academically gifted but that needs far more from all sectors of industry than seems to be about currently.

The cost of everything, the value of nothing.

Boris wave

Park a problem that had built up before Covid and which Boris palpably ignilored after it.

Regards

You can do apprenticeships in various professions, you always could, engineering via CAD trainee to HND or degree, legal exec to solicitor, accountancy etc, whether the "new" apprenticeships have added anything

Pretty scary numbers if the official figures in a month's time confirm this:

It's very preliminary data, but I think that the region of the UK with the highest fiscal deficit as % of GVA has moved for the first time I've ever known it, to be in England...

..The erosion of the economy of the English Midlands from being a net contributor to the national finances in 2000 to now running a bigger deficit than Greece at the deepest point of its financial crisis is an economic catastrophe and a deep threat to our country's survival.
https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2059748175947194392

During 2017 one friend of mine, then the organist at Cannock, spoke of his great frustration that politicians talked all about the financial markets in London and not one of them understood that manufacturing was the backbone of the economy of the Midlands.

He was right then and he's right now, but it's probably too late to do much about it.

I used to work at the lighting factory in Cannock. Not there anymore.

Used to employ hundreds.

Manufacturing has been in decline for many years and people in power happy for it to be. Same with hospitality

People in manufacturing say it’s ’leccy prices that have been killing them, the last few years.

Consumers have been protected,

Among other things, it blocks productivity improvement - install machinery, then pay a fortune to run it.

Well why would you even bother ?

Just thrash your existing assets.

High energy pricing certainly is a problem. Less so for a screwdriver facility than a primary manufacturer like a trade moulder or casting company.

Who would set up a manufacturing company in the UK that was energy intensive now unless you’re going to get a lot of cash from HMG.

But there have been other problems too. Govt policy has not been keen to keep key product or commodity production in this country.

My last company was fortunate that it was able to negotiate a corporate deal for electricity. It was still a big chunk of spend. They, foolishly, invested in new end capping machines which use a fair bit of electricity in the process as it’s hot plate welding. All to grow the Business.

The growth never came as the sale price was too high so they had part utilised assets. Cut the price and you’re on the corporate naughty step for too low a margin.

If the new machinery was more energy efficient it could be worth it perhaps.
The consumer support was politically expedient stupidity, it did nothing to promote energy efficiency that would have had longterm benefits, just subsidised demand.

We already spend enormous amounts on "apprenticeships" though, do we not?

Now renamed to something else, but raising £4.4 billion per annum:

The Growth and Skills Levy (formerly the Apprenticeship Levy) is expected to raise approximately £4.4 billion for the current financial year. This funding is primarily generated by UK employers with an annual pay bill exceeding £3 million, who contribute 0.5% of their payroll into the scheme.
(Google AI answring the question.)

I'm not close enough to it to know whether it is effective, or whether employers have found ways of diverting the money into something else (aiui the mechanism is quite circular).

On electricity prices, I think there needs to be some more flexibility in the market - somehow. We need to stop teh price of cheap renewables being determined by the price of expensive, volatile, gas. SKS has failed to do it, for reasons I cannot fathom.

A mechanism is required for heavy users to avoid the slings and arrows over the long term, and another to let the lower prices of renewables be widely apparent.

There are things we can point to - the freeze on any new rounds of wind projects from 2010 to 2020 being one, but SKS has metaphorically stood in the Farage Firing Range and machine-gunned himself in the head, with Farage needing to do nothing.

Sorry, but once again, this has been comprehensively debunked, so perhaps we can stop with it. Renewables are not cheaper. Nor are they getting cheaper - the strike price on new wind has afaik gone UP because nobody was interested in bidding for the contracts.

Compare electricity prices in Italy and Spain and then tell me that fossil fuels are cheaper than renewables.

We're back to the high speed rail in France and Spain here. I don't need to look at electricity prices in Italy, because we have figures for what the various types of generation cost here and now. And they show that even with gas at an all time high, generating electricity via gas is cheaper than doing so via all forms of wind and all but one form of solar. We have what we have, and unless you have a way to wave a wand and make us Italy, those are the plain facts.

In cases where the Government is held responsible for the results, it has to take control and it has to do that by taking things in-house. Outsourcing eventually goes wrong

The franchise model has many problems and would be largely unsuitable for water, which is why it's usually been rejected.

To begin with, how long should the franchise be? Water is an industry where things take decades to change, so either you'd have to have a franchise that lasts decades, which rather defeats the point of being able to get rid of them if they underperform, or you'd have a series of short-run incumbents that can't change anything.

And what happens if companies do underperform? In theory, it's easy - sack them and replace them. In practice, there would be relatively few companies with the expertise necessary to do so, so you'd probably be replacing them with another, very similar operation. And if Thames needed to be replaced tomorrow, the demand for qualified staff would inevitably mean that you'd have to re-employ most of the existing staff, so what would be the point?

Also, how do you tell if companies are underperforming anyway? The water industry is extremely complicated, with hundreds of output measures and answerable to, I think, seven different regulators (Ofwat, DWI, EA, the rivers people, etc). Ofwat tries to do this every five years, at huge expense, but overall is not generally regarded to do a very good job. And the uncertainty surrounding such a process would inevitably make franchisees either reluctant to take it on, or only willing to do so at premium rates.

Then there's the problem of contractual complexity. The operating company would need to have a long term contract with the infrastructure company. As you can easily see in the rail industry, these are fantastically complicated documents with endless scope for evasion, misunderstandings and lawsuits. Water is a much more complicated industry than rail, so they would have to be far more complicated even than the rail nightmares.

Related, there's the issue of accountability. When something goes wrong in Thames Water's area of operations today, like a leaky main or a sewage overflow, there's no doubt who caused it and needs to clean it up. With a split between infrastructure and franchised operations, though, who is responsible? There's endless scope for blame games and nothing getting fixed. (cont...)

Vickrum Digwa used a 21cm (8in) blade he said he carried as part of his Sikh faith to kill 18-year-old Henry Nowak, who was walking home from a night out in Southampton on 3 December.

Digwa, 23, told Southampton Crown Court he had acted in self defence, claiming the teenager had used a racist insult, punched him and knocked his turban off.

However, the jury rejected this defence and found him guilty of murder.

Digwa was also found guilty of carrying a knife in public and his mother, Kiran Kaur, 53, was found guilty of assisting an offender.

Kaur appeared visibly upset in the dock as the verdict was read out, while Digwa showed little emotion and gazed out into the courtroom.

Sobs could be heard at the back of the public gallery, while Nowak's family let out a sigh and hugged as they left the room.

Judge William Mousley thanked the jury for their "essential service" in what he described as a "particularly difficult case".

He added that he was "impressed by the dignity and respect by the people attending".

Digwa will be sentenced on Monday afternoon at Southampton Crown Court, while his mother will be sentenced on Friday 17 July.

Previously, the court heard that Nowak, a first-year student at the University of Southampton was walking back to his accommodation after drinking to a level that was below the drink-drive limit.

Digwa was in Belmont Road at about 23:30 GMT with the blade in a sheath around his neck.

The court was told the attack was not witnessed, but neighbours heard Nowak say he had been stabbed and was dying.

He attempted to escape by climbing over a fence, leaving a trail of blood behind him.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c775y853ydxo

What the Beeb omit is that Nowak was treated as suspect by the Cops, and they handcuffed him as he was dying.

There's also the question of the problem it would solve. The day to day operations of water companies aren't really the main problems the industry faces, which is far more about sewage spills and net zero capex. Taking the industry's infrastructure into public ownership would do nothing to solve either of those - instead, any investment to solve them would have to come from a constrained Treasury that would cut their budgets in the 8 out of 10 years when it is short of money. And you'd be reliant on some governmental organisation to plan and implement capex. See HS2 for how well getting politicians involved in infrastructure generally works out.

Finally, there's the government finance problem. The water industry needs huge investment, and adding that burden to the government's balance sheet would increase bond yields noticeably, when they are already uncomfortably high. Neither the government nor the taxpayers can be expected to welcome that.

There are good arguments for outsourcing individual operations, provided those are kept under control by an accountable, central and incentivised management. When done well, this can provide real benefits (though when done badly it can mess up the whole system). But that's very different from franchising out all the operations for a few years.

But overall the franchising model, though perhaps theoretically attractive, would cause far more problems than it solved in the water industry.

Water privatisation was, in part, motivated by the need for more investment in water infrastructure. Instead it looks like bills were massively increased and the water companies borrowed to pay dividends. It's hard not to conclude that it failed, and more of the same certainly isn't the answer.

Update on Isle of Wight Council and it appears they had a very exciting 19-19 tied vote*, with the Vice-Chair (a Conservative) using their casting vote for the incumbent Independent Chair.

https://www.countypress.co.uk/news/26144340.isle-wight-council-chair-re-elected-tied-vote/

*There's 39 councillors total, so with the chair out of the room they had a full attendance it seems. Their website shows 19 Reform councillors, so I guess everyone else voted against them.

The vote for the chair is a bit misleading, as with Reform having 19 out of 39 councillors, all the other groups were clearly sensible to avoid handing Reform a casting vote on top. For the rest of the meeting, the anti-Reform rainbow alliance that this vote might have signalled, failed to materialise.

When the committee chair appointments were made, it became obvious that there has been some sort of a deal between Reform and the Independent Group - now calling themselves the Island First Network and comprising just six councillors but including some of those formerly cabinet members/committee chairs who have been administering the council prior. The IFN councillors kept their chair spots, and the other committees are all now chaired by Reform, the IFN taking it in turns to ‘lend’ Reform the extra vote they needed to defeat the opposing nominee from the Tory, LibDem or Green groups.

Reform didn’t put forward a leadership nominee, and the leadership went to another Independent councillor formerly of the IFN but who fell out with his colleagues when, as education cabinet member, he went to the wire on defending some local school closures only for his cabinet colleagues to get cold feet and pull the rug out from under him a few days before the crucial council meeting. Since both Reform and the IFN voted for the guy to become leader, one assumes there’s been some mending of relationships, but the new leader (who’s actually been leader before, way back) has chosen to sit outside all groups and ‘bring people together’. Good luck with that. His deputy is now one of the Reform guys.

On the upside, this Reform/Independent arrangement does at least command a majority, compared to the anticipated rainbow anti-Reform coalition with its majority of one. But it’s a potentially very flaky arrangement - and as someone who voted independent specifically to keep Reform out (and being far from alone in that), it’s not impressive that the re-elected independent councillors promptly sold themselves to Reform in return for keeping their special allowance payments.

Indies keep their options open. In Wiltshire there is a LD minority leadership, but the Chair is Conservative.

Is this not a problem for Kemi?

When there was a rainbow coalition in Worcestershire 2 weeks ago, she suspended the Council Leader from the Conservative Party.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgpyxw7l5no

AFAICS the issue was working with Greens, but she needs some clear guidelines or it could be a mess.

The Be Kind crowd in action with some anti-semitism....

Dame Helen Mirren has been harassed in the street by a pro-Palestine activist calling her an “evil Zionist b----”.

Footage on social media shows the Oscar-winning actress, 80, being accosted as she walked along the street in London with her husband, director Taylor Hackford. In the video, Dame Helen can be seen initially greeting the man with a smile and asking if he is OK as he approaches the couple while filming.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/28/helen-mirren-called-evil-zionist-pro-palestine-activist/

While I deplore the moronic boorishness, afaik Mirren isn’t Jewish. Can you be antisemitic towards a non Semite?

Well she has claimed some distant Jewish lineage.

Also, if I stood in the street targetting people based on the fact they had been to BLM or Stand up Racism type event, throwing in the n word or p word, regardless of colour or creed of those being shouted at, I think most people would think I was a massive racist.

Ah, so the mere use of the word Zionist classifies one as an antisemite.
Aside from all the Israeli and non Israeli Jews who call themselves proud Zionists of course.

The use of Zionist / Zio in the manner it is being used is even before October the 7th was being used as thin cover for directly saying Jews.

The Be Kind crowd in action with some anti-semitism....

Dame Helen Mirren has been harassed in the street by a pro-Palestine activist calling her an “evil Zionist b----”.

Footage on social media shows the Oscar-winning actress, 80, being accosted as she walked along the street in London with her husband, director Taylor Hackford. In the video, Dame Helen can be seen initially greeting the man with a smile and asking if he is OK as he approaches the couple while filming.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/28/helen-mirren-called-evil-zionist-pro-palestine-activist/

While I deplore the moronic boorishness, afaik Mirren isn’t Jewish. Can you be antisemitic towards a non Semite?

She went to a Catholic school. And if she'd been Jewish, living in Southend there were plenty of alternatives.

Having had lunch with her in Stratford I can confirm she isn't Jewish though her boyfriend at the time -Bruce Myers- was. His Father and mine were best friends and Helen and Bruce invited my parents and his and respective families for lunch and to see a play later. My brother had just learnt to drive and all these years later had he been the type he got the best show off of all as he gave her a lift back to london that evening

Pretty scary numbers if the official figures in a month's time confirm this:

It's very preliminary data, but I think that the region of the UK with the highest fiscal deficit as % of GVA has moved for the first time I've ever known it, to be in England...

..The erosion of the economy of the English Midlands from being a net contributor to the national finances in 2000 to now running a bigger deficit than Greece at the deepest point of its financial crisis is an economic catastrophe and a deep threat to our country's survival.
https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2059748175947194392

I would be interested to know what he means by "English Midlands"; it is not a region.

I'm assuming primarily hollowing out of Birmingham, and also the auto industry.

Though presumably Denby Pottery (500 jobs) may come within the locus.

He's planning an article when the official numbers come out, which will be interesting.

If only all official stats were dashboarded - and available as a JSON feed.

But after COVID the dashboard team was hurriedly disbanded to prevent ideas like that happening. Because officials thought that information = power and didn’t want to give it up.

Someone put it in their manifesto, please.

I think the dashboard team, who I knew some of, was disbanded because it had done its job and no longer had a purpose. It wasn’t malice. The team didn’t have a broader remit and it would’ve required active intervention and a lot of cross-departmental discussions over budgets and reporting paths to have given it a broader remit. That lack of flexibility is very much a failing of government (a result of an obsessive drive to constantly save money), but your supposition is wrong.

One of Patrick Vallance's bug bear for years has been how poor the public sector collects data and uses it. He had some big ideas in the aftermath of COVID and it seemed like a good hire by the government to get him. However, like Timpson, he has become Mr Totally Invisible. Now I am sure he is working away doing some things, but none of big bang of data driven public sector is ever getting talked about by Starmer etc, instead they have become fixated on non-compulsory id cards.

Timpson is even more, all the stuff with prison fuck ups, early release, etc etc etc and he is always hidden away from the media.

Wonder where Timpson is, with all the furore about the young rapists?

We've heard, understandably, a lot from the parents of the girls involved but nothing from the parents of the lads. Who must be, surely, absolutely devastated at the behaviour of their sons.