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Re: Some good news for Badenoch but will it move the polls? – politicalbetting.com
Despite living within moderate rifle shot of each other (often) the leaders of the various groups in NI rarely managed to murder each other.I think it revolves around finding common ‘values’ of the reactionary sort, particularly around identity and the signs on public lavvies, possibly also shared dislike of the SNP.Interesting. But paywalled. What is proposed? To turn the music down to below 11 rather than the default level outside the RC place, or even change to Ave Maria gratia plenis?We hear lots about the casual and gratuitous use of 'racist' by the left. And ok there's some truth in that. But less discussed and at least equally prevalent is the opposite tendency on the right whereby unless a person goes round in a tee-shirt emblazoned with "KKK White Power!” they can't in fairness be described as a racist.Many of Kirk's views were deeply repulsive. You don't graduate from Princeton, and get a law doctorate from Harvard, as Michelle Obama did, without possessing a lot of brainpower.Rogan has supported vaccine misinformation, HIV denialism and denies climate change. He’s said Jews are “interested in money”. Are these centrist views?Oh dear.I'm not convinced by your definition of "centrist". Back in September, you described Charlie Kirk as "a middle-of-the-road conservative Christian youth movement leader". Charlie Kirk absolutely did not deserve to die, but he was racist and anti-Semitic, so it seems odd to describe him as "middle-of-the-road", as it seems odd to describe Rogan as "centrist". I suggest that you are still so deep in a MAGA social media bubble that you are struggling to discern reality.You’re right on the Epstein stuff, that’s gone down really badly with the base, they were told they’d be seeing the Epstein files and they haven’t turned up. The base are pretty pissed with Pam Bondi for her comments on “hate speech” as well.If he's losing the conspiracy nutters who else does he have? The Epstein stuff has holed him and I've also got videos of that Theo Von guy getting upset by ICE.Even an idiot can now see what's going on in the US.So if Tucker is having a go at Trump he’s a sage, but the other 99% of the time he’s a crazy conspiracy theorist?
Tucker Carlson is now accusing Trump’s regime of using Charlie Kirk’s assassination as a pretext to:
- Abolish the First Amendment
- Round up Americans
- And Nazify the country
Yes, Tucker said that.
And for once… he’s not wrong.
https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1976473095641641151
The likes of Joe Rogan and Theo Von are both pretty centrist comics, despite them both voting for Trump last time out. They’ve both made negative comments on execution of immigration raids, while being supportive of the concept. They’re a pretty good barometer for the general feeling in the country I think.
As for Tucker, everything he says needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Like so many journalists now working for himself and paid to have an opinion, he doesn’t make factual stuff up but often leaves out a lot of context, and also knows that the wildest opinions drive social media “engagement”.
Rogan said he’d never voted Republican before last year, and that he voted for Obama. He’s described himself as centre-left, but said that the Democrats had gone crazy over censorship and gender stuff.
Von is slightly to the right of Rogan, but has also described himself as pretty centrist.
Charlie Kirk was not racist, there’s no evidence whatsoever of that.
As for Kirk, start at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Kirk#Race and work down. The man was deeply racist and an anti-Semite. He explicitly said the Great Replacement Theory conspiracy was true and he blamed Jews for it.
And even then..
On a parochial but related note there’s a weird push by one of the more gammony hacks on the Herald to reframe the Orange Order as a poor persecuted lot who are trying to reach out to other faiths. Presumably that reaching out involves beating their drums outside Catholic churches.
https://x.com/kmckenna63/status/1974722680315355546?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Edit: tbf they lifted their ban on entering RC churches a few years back, after two UU politicians got stick for attending a RC funeral as part of their official duties in government.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17526374.orange-order-shock-catholic-rule-change-drastic-effect/
Setting aside the sectarian aspects and wanting to kill each other, I always thought the extreme elements of Catholics and Protestants in NI had more in common than was acknowledged.
Some say it is cynical to note how smoothly various criminal enterprises worked across the borders of the “sectarian divide”.
Re: The most selfish generation? – politicalbetting.com
My parents nearly emigrated to NZ in the mid 1950s but my granny would have been left on her own, and those were the days before cheap flights. So I missed out on being a compatriot of certain PBers.My folks were planning Vancouver.Only £10 to emigrate to Australia.My Dad was 25 in 1960.We can take the 'generation' thing a bit too far. My dad's reaction to the 'summer of love':There's a total lack of self-awareness.I'm not sure it's entitlement - just a massive failure to recognise how anomalously lucky their generation is.These findings fill me with incredulity.Same, I had to check with YouGov that there were no typos in the posts.
The sense of entitlement is unbelievable.
I just cannot wrap my ahead around it, my parents think their main role in life is to spend money on their grandkids, and also leave me and them a massive inheritance.
My mother in law has a slightly exasperating tendency to talk to us about what we'll do when we retire, blithely expecting that we'll be able to have the same two-cruises-a-year lifestyle she has. At present my plan A is work until my 70s then off to Dignitas.
It's also the generation that did the Summer of '69 and all the self-indulgence of the 1960s, so there's a certain me me me to them anyway.
"I was too busy trying to make a living"
I fear the stories of the swinging sixties are far more widespread than the actual experiences.
He described the Sixties to me as "a depressing time, everyone was trying to emigrate".
When you look at the figures, he was probably right.
My mum failed the TB chest X-ray, and needed years of treatment. After that was done the moment was gone, otherwise I would be a Cannuck. We did go to the USA for 5 years though, and had a pretty good time.

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Following the colonies – politicalbetting.com
Following the colonies – politicalbetting.com
Thought this was quite an interesting question. We asked which political party do people think is most "American" in it's style and Reform comes out on top by a country mile. Most likely to do with Trump, but also perhaps their more attention grabbing set pieces?

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Re: Some good news for Badenoch but will it move the polls? – politicalbetting.com
Like the Japanese, they ignored the logistics pyramid - the further you go, the more you are spending effort on refuelling the transports that carry the fuel etc.In part it is from believing their own propaganda, in particular:One thing I always found (grimly) fascinating about the Russian/German conflict was just how rubbish the German planning actually was. Not Hitler's interference. The actual General Staff. How did they think they were going to win?I have always thought Russia's vastness to be its vulnerability despite the Napoleonic and Hitlerian failuresUnless Xi has gone Full Tonto, he doesn’t need to do anything. The border is virtually non-existent and Chinese companies are already doing what they like in the area. They just pay the local government(s) off (and kick back to Putin of course).Because Putin is such a genius the Europeans will greet this with relief not horror.Xi is rubbing his hands at the thought of the collapse of Russia. A massive opportunity for China.Reposting from 8.27:-On MAGA/Reform/UkraineThere’s a noticeable lack of confidence now, among pro-Russian bloggers.
Had lunch with a friend who’s fallen down the Reform well.
He’s gone from his usual (last year or so) “Russia is winning” to “Ukraine is really, really Nazi”
Apparently the pro-Russian types are making a push on that.
‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine capital triggers blackouts and sets high-rise alight
Powerful blasts reported in Kyiv as missiles and drones target energy infrastructure, injuring nine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/russian-attack-kyiv-ukraine-capital-blackouts-sets-high-rise-alight
What is more interesting is someone with a big brain sharing my conspiracy theory about China and Siberia:-
Putin’s Real Problem Isn’t NATO (45 seconds)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elJtRqY4k-0
And here is Rory on TRiP about the difference between China & Russia (50 seconds)
Does Putin operate with the same kind of unpredictable or chaotic strategy that Trump is known for?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0_IRBiuMiE
This is vastly cheaper than any war.
1) German Blitzkrieg warfare and the discipline of the Wehrmacht were totally superior to any other army.
2) The Soviet Army would collapse like a house of cards because of the intrinsic failures and unpopularity of Communism.
To be fair, after 1939 to June 1941 the first looked a no-brainer, and the second was very nearly true.
The warning signs were there though in the Far East, where China lost vast numbers of casualties and territory from 1937-1941, but continued the fight from the interior.
It's always dangerous to underestimate an opponent when surrender means extinction, as we see in Putins war on Ukraine.
The Japanese couldn't have invaded and held Hawaii, even if the entire US Navy had gone for lunch.
Similarly, the German military couldn't take and hold Moscow. Even with a lot of "living off the land" - also kn own as robbing the locals and letting them starve to death.
Re: Some good news for Badenoch but will it move the polls? – politicalbetting.com
Because they have more political clout than people in far off eastern oblastsWhy haven't they been called up before? Are they all older than non-Moscovites?Mrs Sandpit can read Russian, and she’s laughing at it. They’ve started calling up Moscovites.This might be a story.Intreresting .. I can't read or translate the Russian text but it seems an act of desperation by Putin
Russia has started issuing military callups to residents near Moscow.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1976572588852662742
Some people are trying to flee the country to avoid, and getting stopped as they leave.
Re: The most selfish generation? – politicalbetting.com
When Labour announced VAT on private school fees, they promised it would raise £1.7 billion for state schools.Point 3 of that thread sounds like rubbish.
With 25,000 pupils already forced out, eight times more than predicted, the policy is on track to cost taxpayers money rather than raise it. A thread....
https://x.com/strickia/status/1976294556770423119
It has included the VAT that people leaving private school would have paid as part of the costs of imposing VAT on private schools. That's completely irrelevant as they would have never earned that VAT without imposing it...
25,000 x £8.2k is £205m annually. Not £300m. Based on their own figures.
At no point do they actually make the numbers add up to suggest it costs more than it raises. They just wave their hands on the matter after spouting nonsense to start with.

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Re: Some good news for Badenoch but will it move the polls? – politicalbetting.com
I disagree. The IHT cut had the biggest impact not among those who were exposed but on those who aspired to save enough for it to be a problem. Stamp duty is the same: it cuts through because an Englishman house is his castle.Yes, it is a core core vote strategy aimed at the retired in the Stockbroker belt, but even there the yellow diamonds proliferate. Even in Berkshire the culture war stuff doesn't play well.Interesting polling. The tax cuts for millionaires thing hasn't cut through (even though that is kinda true*).Even the average house buyer pays Stamp Duty in London and the Home Counties.
I wonder if it's the IHT effect? People are unrealistically optimistic and think they are likely to pay these taxes even though very few of us do.
*I personally think the policy is an excellent one from economic/housing market perspective, though the first order effect is highly regressive
I think this is mainly Kemi trying to save Tory seats in the all out London local elections next year and thus her job. North of Watford the Stamp Duty cut won't have much impact beyond the most expensive suburbs and villages
Re: Some good news for Badenoch but will it move the polls? – politicalbetting.com
This is the new Nobel Peace Prize Winner.
"María Corina Machado
@MariaCorinaYA
This recognition of the struggle of all Venezuelans is a boost to conclude our task: to conquer Freedom.
We are on the threshold of victory and today, more than ever, we count on President Trump, the people of the United States, the peoples of Latin America, and the democratic nations of the world as our principal allies to achieve Freedom and democracy.
I dedicate this prize to the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support of our cause!"
https://x.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/1976642376119549990
"María Corina Machado
@MariaCorinaYA
This recognition of the struggle of all Venezuelans is a boost to conclude our task: to conquer Freedom.
We are on the threshold of victory and today, more than ever, we count on President Trump, the people of the United States, the peoples of Latin America, and the democratic nations of the world as our principal allies to achieve Freedom and democracy.
I dedicate this prize to the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support of our cause!"
https://x.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/1976642376119549990

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Re: Some good news for Badenoch but will it move the polls? – politicalbetting.com
Based on the alleged style, probably George or Ralph.What is the name of this board please?It’s a very 2000s style board (like this one TBH) and things have moved on. I’ve never regularly commented there.It's a shame that board is basically going through a very slow lingering death. I've been on it for about 12 years and there hasn't been much genuine new bloodIndeed.Here's an interesting question I'll adapt from another message board I lurk on.Is this a message board that's more orange than the Donald ?
Which PBer, past or present, would make the most interesting subject for a Louis Theroux documentary?


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Re: Some good news for Badenoch but will it move the polls? – politicalbetting.com
Those sentencing remarks are absolutely vomit worthy.Two tier justice. If that was a black gang member or a white far right rioter doing the same they would have got a custodial sentence. The UK has a class that the judiciary and politicians are doing their best to protect from the consequences of their own actions.Just catching up on this, as I don't recall it.He was. The judiciary decided he required nothing more than a Hard Stare.My apologies.Moderately encouraging news from Turkey.This was in London, outside the Turkish consulate
https://x.com/SpeechUnion/status/1976614542785270149
MAJOR VICTORY FOR FREE SPEECH! HAMIT COSKUN WINS HIS APPEAL AGAINST ISLAMIC BLASPHEMY LAW
The Free Speech Union is delighted that Hamit Coskun’s appeal has been successful.
Hamit was convicted under the Public Order Act for burning a copy of the Koran during a lawful protest against the rise of political Islam and authorities in Turkey under President Erdoğan’s regime.
The court conflated his political protest against Islam with hatred of Muslims, effectively reviving blasphemy law by the back door. It ruled his action as “disorderly” — not because of what Hamit did, but because it provoked violence against him, namely a man called Moussa Kadri slashed a knife at him and shouted “I’m going to kill you”. Kadri was spared jail time, and actions were used to prove Hamit’s guilt. Meanwhile, Hamit is forced to live in hiding due to multiple threats to his life.
Hamit’s conviction has now been overturned. Had the verdict been allowed to stand, it would have sent a message to religious fundamentalists up and down the country that all they need to do to enforce their blasphemy codes is to violently attack the blasphemer, thereby making him or her guilty of having caused public disorder.
Instead, the Crown Court has sent the opposite message - that anti-religious protests, however offensive to true believers, must be tolerated.
Why wasn't this Kadri character arrested and charged ?
A suspended sentence of 18 months,
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Rex-v-Moussa-Kadri.pdf
Not quite clear what a "sharpened bread knife" is, but he seems rather fortunate not to have done a short time behind bars.

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