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Just caught up with the IFS proposal for VAT on food.

Where on earth do we dig these lunatics up, and why do we give them any airtime at all? Why are they not doing something on their own intellectual level like cleaning out a stables?

If they are serious, I would remind them that Balfour had a majority comparable to Starmer's, but proposed taxes on food - much more modest ones - destroyed his government and very nearly his entire political movement.

I completely missed this. They arent proposing bringing all food under VAT surely??

Yep - it's that time this decade when the idea gets trotted out - alongside the response of you do know that's an incredibly regressive change because poor people spend more of their income on food than rich people..

I still wonder whether it would work to have a second level of VAT on “luxury goods” where it doesn’t affect the lowest paid levels but it’s on purely discretionary spending on things that really are not necessary just desirable.

For example, you could set a level of a price of car and then add on a luxury vat on purchase of cars over that amount, say £50k. Now there is absolutely no “need” to spend more than £50k on a car and is purely a choice made for reasons.

If you cannot afford to pay the extra rate of luxury vat on your over 50k car then you should probably be questioning whether you should be in the market for a £50k car in the first place as a proportion of your wealth/disposable.

Again this could be rolled out on multiple goods - watches over £200, handbags over £200, clothing over £200 (apart from specialist workwear/sports kit).

There are huge sums spent on “unnecessary” goods in the UK, often that people are buying on the never-never where either the extra tax is rolled into their repayments or it makes people think a bit first.

I can’t think of anyone who is going to be buying a Mercedes G65 who is going to not buy it because there is an extra £20k in tax on it, if you have to squeeze every penny you have to buy it under current VAT then just don’t buy it.

I’m sure someone will point out why this won’t work though.

One of the principal reasons for our sluggish growth in recent years is asset rich (generally older) people not spending enough money.

Savings rates are through the roof and private debt is the lowest for decades.

We need those OAPs buying as much tat as possible (so long as it’s eco friendly tat). And that includes foreign made goods and foreign holidays, because a large chunk of the associated economic activity and profit arises here.

Would most of those OAPs with savings be buying higher end watches, designer coats, top end cars etc anyway? I don’t think it would have any effect on whether they save or spend but at least it gets more out of a cohort who are spending anyway?

I don’t know a lot of OAPs but the ones I do know seem to be very keen on savings “just in case”. They want a cushion and to leave money to family and so not overly interested in big spending - and these are wealthy people anyway.

This is one of those many cases where what makes absolute sense for the individual can be disastrous for the country as a whole. Others being taking your money out during a run on the bank, or buying a gun to protect yourself because you don’t trust law enforcement.

Hence why we can’t rely on the individual to choose what’s best for the country. We need behavioural nudges.

Having a properly structured social care offering would actually probably encourage those rainy day savers to splash the cash more. They’re perfectly capable of doing so when they put their mind to it.

Terrorists teaching prisoners how to make bombs


The Telegraph is concerned by the rising threat posed by Islamist prisoners, and so is everyone's favourite social media star:-

Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, said: “Extremists and career criminals now operate with near impunity inside some of this country’s highest-security prisons.

“That is a complete failure of leadership – and a dangerous abdication of one of the state’s core duties: maintaining order behind bars.

“When Islamist terrorists and organised crime figures are left to forge alliances, we aren’t just witnessing a security lapse – we’re watching a national threat incubate in plain sight. This cannot be allowed to continue.”

There is also a helpful graph to demonstrate this rising threat but can anyone spot an anomaly the Telegraph and Rob J have both missed?



Non-paywalled gift link
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/469148674f565da0

Just caught up with the IFS proposal for VAT on food.

Where on earth do we dig these lunatics up, and why do we give them any airtime at all? Why are they not doing something on their own intellectual level like cleaning out a stables?

If they are serious, I would remind them that Balfour had a majority comparable to Starmer's, but proposed taxes on food - much more modest ones - destroyed his government and very nearly his entire political movement.

I completely missed this. They arent proposing bringing all food under VAT surely??

Yep - it's that time this decade when the idea gets trotted out - alongside the response of you do know that's an incredibly regressive change because poor people spend more of their income on food than rich people..

I still wonder whether it would work to have a second level of VAT on “luxury goods” where it doesn’t affect the lowest paid levels but it’s on purely discretionary spending on things that really are not necessary just desirable.

For example, you could set a level of a price of car and then add on a luxury vat on purchase of cars over that amount, say £50k. Now there is absolutely no “need” to spend more than £50k on a car and is purely a choice made for reasons.

If you cannot afford to pay the extra rate of luxury vat on your over 50k car then you should probably be questioning whether you should be in the market for a £50k car in the first place as a proportion of your wealth/disposable.

Again this could be rolled out on multiple goods - watches over £200, handbags over £200, clothing over £200 (apart from specialist workwear/sports kit).

There are huge sums spent on “unnecessary” goods in the UK, often that people are buying on the never-never where either the extra tax is rolled into their repayments or it makes people think a bit first.

I can’t think of anyone who is going to be buying a Mercedes G65 who is going to not buy it because there is an extra £20k in tax on it, if you have to squeeze every penny you have to buy it under current VAT then just don’t buy it.

I’m sure someone will point out why this won’t work though.

One of the principal reasons for our sluggish growth in recent years is asset rich (generally older) people not spending enough money.

Savings rates are through the roof and private debt is the lowest for decades.

We need those OAPs buying as much tat as possible (so long as it’s eco friendly tat). And that includes foreign made goods and foreign holidays, because a large chunk of the associated economic activity and profit arises here.

I approve this message (Son just joined a holiday company selling foreign holidays)

Just caught up with the IFS proposal for VAT on food.

Where on earth do we dig these lunatics up, and why do we give them any airtime at all? Why are they not doing something on their own intellectual level like cleaning out a stables?

If they are serious, I would remind them that Balfour had a majority comparable to Starmer's, but proposed taxes on food - much more modest ones - destroyed his government and very nearly his entire political movement.

I completely missed this. They arent proposing bringing all food under VAT surely??

Yep - it's that time this decade when the idea gets trotted out - alongside the response of you do know that's an incredibly regressive change because poor people spend more of their income on food than rich people..

I still wonder whether it would work to have a second level of VAT on “luxury goods” where it doesn’t affect the lowest paid levels but it’s on purely discretionary spending on things that really are not necessary just desirable.

For example, you could set a level of a price of car and then add on a luxury vat on purchase of cars over that amount, say £50k. Now there is absolutely no “need” to spend more than £50k on a car and is purely a choice made for reasons.

If you cannot afford to pay the extra rate of luxury vat on your over 50k car then you should probably be questioning whether you should be in the market for a £50k car in the first place as a proportion of your wealth/disposable.

Again this could be rolled out on multiple goods - watches over £200, handbags over £200, clothing over £200 (apart from specialist workwear/sports kit).

There are huge sums spent on “unnecessary” goods in the UK, often that people are buying on the never-never where either the extra tax is rolled into their repayments or it makes people think a bit first.

I can’t think of anyone who is going to be buying a Mercedes G65 who is going to not buy it because there is an extra £20k in tax on it, if you have to squeeze every penny you have to buy it under current VAT then just don’t buy it.

I’m sure someone will point out why this won’t work though.

One of the principal reasons for our sluggish growth in recent years is asset rich (generally older) people not spending enough money.

Savings rates are through the roof and private debt is the lowest for decades.

We need those OAPs buying as much tat as possible (so long as it’s eco friendly tat). And that includes foreign made goods and foreign holidays, because a large chunk of the associated economic activity and profit arises here.

Just caught up with the IFS proposal for VAT on food.

Where on earth do we dig these lunatics up, and why do we give them any airtime at all? Why are they not doing something on their own intellectual level like cleaning out a stables?

If they are serious, I would remind them that Balfour had a majority comparable to Starmer's, but proposed taxes on food - much more modest ones - destroyed his government and very nearly his entire political movement.

Their job is to tot the numbers up, not to work through the political ramifications of such a change.

It's a bit like raising fuel duty being a green and progressive thing to do (with the exception of rural communities), and advocated for by pretty much all think tanks, but we all know it will be a political disaster 10x worse than WFP.

Then it's a very good job that nobody pays attention to them and none of their number ever enter politics.

Why, can you imagine such an idiot in the cabinet? It would be like watching the Titanic sink after meeting an Iceberg.

You can do both things - present the numbers and why it's brilliant, and then set out the practical, commercial, legal or reputational issues that make it incredibly stupid. The IFS just do the former.

Terrorists teaching prisoners how to make bombs


The Telegraph is concerned by the rising threat posed by Islamist prisoners, and so is everyone's favourite social media star:-

Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, said: “Extremists and career criminals now operate with near impunity inside some of this country’s highest-security prisons.

“That is a complete failure of leadership – and a dangerous abdication of one of the state’s core duties: maintaining order behind bars.

“When Islamist terrorists and organised crime figures are left to forge alliances, we aren’t just witnessing a security lapse – we’re watching a national threat incubate in plain sight. This cannot be allowed to continue.”

There is also a helpful graph to demonstrate this rising threat but can anyone spot an anomaly the Telegraph and Rob J have both missed?



Non-paywalled gift link
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/469148674f565da0

Terrorists teaching prisoners how to make bombs


The Telegraph is concerned by the rising threat posed by Islamist prisoners, and so is everyone's favourite social media star:-

Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, said: “Extremists and career criminals now operate with near impunity inside some of this country’s highest-security prisons.

“That is a complete failure of leadership – and a dangerous abdication of one of the state’s core duties: maintaining order behind bars.

“When Islamist terrorists and organised crime figures are left to forge alliances, we aren’t just witnessing a security lapse – we’re watching a national threat incubate in plain sight. This cannot be allowed to continue.”

There is also a helpful graph to demonstrate this rising threat but can anyone spot an anomaly the Telegraph and Rob J have both missed?



Non-paywalled gift link
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/469148674f565da0