Best Of
Re: Sir Keir Starmer’s transformation in to Boris Johnson could soon be complete – politicalbetting.com
Apparently Sunak is in a volcanic rage about Starmer going against him and winning. And Truss is in a volcanic rage about, well everything.https://x.com/DailyMail/status/2068386082375315569What beyrayal? Burnham has been after him for at least a year.
DAN HODGES: Insiders tell me Starmer is in a 'volcanic rage' over Burnham 'betrayal'. He'll only listen to his wife now - and this is what Lady Starmer's telling him to do…
boulay
1
Re: Sir Keir Starmer’s transformation in to Boris Johnson could soon be complete – politicalbetting.com
One has to have a smidge of sympathy - in summer 2024 Starmer genuinely believed he had won such a massive jaw-breaking victory that he had two terms to implement the fifteen missions and the twenty five cross-ply project milestones that would transform Britain.https://x.com/DailyMail/status/2068386082375315569What beyrayal? Burnham has been after him for at least a year.
DAN HODGES: Insiders tell me Starmer is in a 'volcanic rage' over Burnham 'betrayal'. He'll only listen to his wife now - and this is what Lady Starmer's telling him to do…
Then...Reeves decided to take out the winter fuel allowance.
Re: Sir Keir Starmer’s transformation in to Boris Johnson could soon be complete – politicalbetting.com
That I doubt is the explanation.International football seems to have become significantly more high scoring than many of the games I remember from years gone by. I wonder why that might be?Because they know how unpopular boring 0-0 matches are to audiences.
Apparently it’s the highest scoring opening set of WC matches since WC 1958.
In the absence of any wisdom or insight from fellow PB’ers, I can only offer AI’s suggestions which are some mix of tactical resets by managers during the hydration breaks (apparently many of the goals are scored in the ten minutes after), the unpredictable nature in flight of the Adidas Trionda ball, defensive errors (obvs), fatigue due to the heat and travel distances and extended stoppage time, and the expanded 48 team format allowing in lower quality teams for the expert nations to beat.
Some of these ideas seem more likely than others. The last one sounds convincing until you consider some of the matches between ‘top’ teams that were surprisingly high scoring, including England v Croatia and Netherlands v Sweden.
IanB2
1
Re: A reminder on how Andy Burnham performed in his two previous leadership campaigns
I saw recently that Glenys Kinnock's estate was valued at about £1.5million. Now she was an MEP for 15 years rather than an MP. But given that she was a teacher before entering politics, it is hard to see how she could have amassed such a fortune.Taz, and make plenty of cash, expenses, second houses. A lucrative business for useless donkeys.No labour MP went into parliament wanting to make a difficult decision. They want to open fetes, garden centres, shops, and do lots of feel good social work while not upsetting anyone.Surely the point of the Labour Party is to attempt to solve national problems with policies that match the culture of the Labour Party?I think Starmer would have worked as a change candidate were it not for winter fuel. Everything that came after was downhill but that was the initial destructive act. I supported the policy but it was utterly toxic against the new Labour coalition as to be fair many Labour MPs said at the time.The fact there has been virtually no change in Makerfield between 2024 and now suggests that it isn’t Labour that’s the problem, it’s Keir Starmer.The underlying problem is the country wants changes that are 1) too expensive for our budget and/or 2) implausible. So any candidate representing the status quo is going to lose to a change candidate for the next decade at least. Policies, values etc are not that important, if we had a Conservative or Reform govt they would be extremely unpopular too.
Burnham has gone too early - he should have taken over in 2027 and portrayed himself as a change candidate in 2028. It will be very difficult to portray himself as a change candidate when he has been there for a couple of years.
Mandelson would have been easily survivable by somebody with more popularity.
From a party POV, he should have made benefit reform a confidence issue and then quit then if it hadn’t passed. Letting that go just gave the PLP the magic money tree. Burnham will have to grapple with that too but he will start with goodwill.
The WFA cut seemed like an attempt of cod-Thatcherism. No Labour MP went into politics to cheer cutting benefits.
You want to reduce the welfare bill, but are a Labour PM? What do Labour MPs like? Benefits targeted to the poorest, perhaps?
So announce all the old age extras are going in a blender. The result will be means tests/taxed, so as to target the poorest pensioners.
Then you sell that to the MPs as a reform that makes the poor better off, while being fiscally prudent.
Politics is clearly about money for the politicians.
Re: Sir Keir Starmer’s transformation in to Boris Johnson could soon be complete – politicalbetting.com
The more digitally advanced PB followers may be interested to know that the other device that receives radio is a radio. A very small portable FM/AM 2AA battery one in an indispensable device as an adjunct to all the smarter stuff. They cost a tenner.I used to read books instead of listen. It wasn't until listening to YouTube on earphones whilst working that I realised I could do both. Since I now have a tablet, there was never any need to use my phone for listening. But when my wifi went down on Makerfield election night, the need for a non-wifi-based medium became pressing, so I checked my phone and laptops to see if they had a radio. The phone did, and that's how it started.I have just worked out that my phone can be used as a radio. I'm trying to snooze through the heat whilst listening to Radio 4. It's oddly pleasant.Why has it taken you 15 years to work that out, lol.
Re: Sir Keir Starmer’s transformation in to Boris Johnson could soon be complete – politicalbetting.com
Oh dear.The recent NIESR report came to a similar conclusion. London has done OK since Brexit; the regions (with the exception of NI) got shafted.
Revealed: Brexit voting areas have seen faster growth in foreign workers since EU referendum
Guardian investigation also finds same areas experienced relative decline over same period
Leave-voting areas have seen faster relative growth in foreign workers since the Brexit referendum, a Guardian investigation has found.
Data analysis suggests that the decade since the Brexit vote may not have matched the expectations of many Leave supporters, showing their local areas have also become relatively more deprived over the same period.
Migration increased across the UK after Brexit, especially of those arriving on health and care visas, peaking at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023. Net migration has since cratered, and continues to fall as people’s visas expire.
Analysis of government Pay As You Earn data shows that between 2016 and the end of 2024, non-UK workers grew fastest in percentage terms in stronger Leave-voting areas, largely because they had previously made up a smaller share of the workforce.
Wigan, where the Makerfield byelection has taken place, follows the pattern seen in many strong Leave-voting areas. Less than 5% of payrolled employees were from outside the UK in June 2016. That had increased to just under 10% in December 2024 – more than doubling in relative terms.
Across the country, the proportion of foreign workers increased by just 40% over that period, rather than doubling.
Remain-voting areas – often larger cities – still have the largest numbers of non-UK workers. While they have seen bigger rises in absolute numbers, it is Brexit strongholds that have seen faster relative growth of their foreign workforce.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/20/leave-voting-areas-foreign-workers-decade-since-brexit-referendum
Nigelb
1
Re: Sir Keir Starmer’s transformation in to Boris Johnson could soon be complete – politicalbetting.com
Anyhoo, I have had a cheeky bet on Côte d'Ivoire to beat Germany tonight.I’m going for 2-2. Mind you I thought NED/SWE would be 2-2 as well.
On a related note I like that if Sweden are Playing Denmark at home the score in the corner spells out SWEDEN and the bits missed off the ends of their names, the “den” and “mark” make up the other team.
boulay
2
Re: Sir Keir Starmer’s transformation in to Boris Johnson could soon be complete – politicalbetting.com
Another poll, another poll showing Reform's lead over Labour narrowing.
🚨 Latest Opinium @ObserverUK poll 🚨
Reform UK remains ahead on 27%, despite falling 2 points this week.
➡️ Reform 27% (-2)
🌹 Labour 20% (n/c)
🌳 Conservatives 18% (+1)
🌍 Greens 14% (n/c)
🔶 Lib Dems 12% (+1)
https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/2068408544945418496
🚨 Latest Opinium @ObserverUK poll 🚨
Reform UK remains ahead on 27%, despite falling 2 points this week.
➡️ Reform 27% (-2)
🌹 Labour 20% (n/c)
🌳 Conservatives 18% (+1)
🌍 Greens 14% (n/c)
🔶 Lib Dems 12% (+1)
https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/2068408544945418496
Re: Sir Keir Starmer’s transformation in to Boris Johnson could soon be complete – politicalbetting.com
Even if Starmer announces his resignation on Monday, it takes time to undertake the formalities. July looks more likely.No harm in giving Starmer his full two years. He earned that from his big win in 2024. It is a shame he has subsequently been so ineffective.
Re: Sir Keir Starmer’s transformation in to Boris Johnson could soon be complete – politicalbetting.com
Even if Starmer announces his resignation on Monday, it takes time to undertake the formalities. July looks more likely.What formalities?
Starmer could announce he is resigning immediately with effect from the next morning and the Palace will arrange for Starmer to see the King and resign and Mr Madchester to follow an hour later to be asked to form a new administration.*
The formality is whether Burnham's team can persuade Starmer to have an honourable exit with a timetable over the summer allowing Burnham time to prepare and meet civil service etc etc.
* I'm assuming the King is in the UK and near to London etc.


