Best Of

Hmm, I think Labour's ditching of zonal pricing will have had a material impact on the SNP's chances next year. Such an obvious weakness for UK Government - not sure why they floated it unless they were going to push it through.

I'm already getting targeted ads about subsiding the SE with Tartan Turbines.

It's a huge f-you to Scotland. "You guys with all the wind turbines? Just keep paying London prices for your electricity, kthxbye!"

Miliband is so dumb he's an actual menace.

Although if you want regional prices for electricity etc can we have regional pricing for post? Why is it the same to post Warminster to Wick as it is Warminster to Frome?

So speaks someone without an IV postcode. People in the Highlands and Islands already get charged extra - it's quite a big local politics issue.

The exception is Royal Mail.

Indeed the universal service and its extensive rural and small town network is the main benefit of retaining Royal Mail

Luke Tryl
@LukeTryl

➡️ REF UK 29% (nc)
🌹 LAB 24% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+2)
🌍 GREEN 7% (-2)
🟡 SNP 3% (nc)

N = 2,084 | Dates:4 - 7/7 | Change w 30/6"

https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1942848128119677033

Baxter:

RefUK 321
Lab 164
LD 66
Con 46
SNP 24
PC 4
Grn 2
Others 23

This,looks like the definition of a snooze summer poll. I can almost hear them doing the research from their deckchairs.

Gotta feel for the Lib Dems; despite decades of effort as the third party, they've utterly failed to capitalise on the decline of the two major parties....

They did win 72 seats.

Irony is we have many MPs and public figures queuing up to demand compensation for the WASPE women who don’t deserve a penny.

The Waspy women thing was entirely without merit but had the politically critical quality of being easy to understand. Hence the number of MPs and others lining up behind it. And hence the fondness for issues involving calculable amounts of free money to a readily identifiable group. See also WFA and last week's benefits shambles and two child cap which have the same quality.

Surely the WASPI issue is simple.

I have had my retirement age pushed back several times. The changes were decades into the future and made no effect to my plans.

Some of the WASPI women were told that instead of being able to retire and draw your pension next year, you now have to wait 6 years. That's a massive difference.

"But the law changed in 1995" seems to be the defence, Sure. Who goes around proactively checking Hansard in case the government have changed the law against you? They started writing to the affected in 2009 about the change coming into effect the following year. Not much notice if you'd planned to retire and now couldn't.

So what. Every legal challenge has accepted that the change of law in 1995 is not an issue so it is a perfect defence. No issue. It’s been used as a defence in court and won.

Even the PHSO judgement found there was no obligation on behalf of the govt to write to them to tell them. It even found people who received letters in 2011 didn’t remember receiving them and if people had received letters that they may not have read them. It’s all in the PHSO report

There was not just Hansard. There were plenty of campaigns in the papers and on TV to raise awareness at the time.

The state pension is a benefit and that is all there is to it and the govt can take it away or give it if they wish. They chop and change at will. This got traction as it’s a well funded, largely middle class and white, group who were effective lobbyists.

I’ve never had a letter telling me my state pension age is increasing to 67. So what.

The solution to the WASPE women is simple. Ignore them. The whole movement is fractured and WASPE doesn’t not represent all affected women either.

The level of info they claim is needed in order for any law to be enacted is bloody absurd. Their upset is understandable but they went beyond reasonable grievance long long ago and i no longer have any sympathy.

Exactly what I tell my two year old when he doesn't want his bath.

Morning all.
Polling start to the morning today from More In Common. As you were figures. We are still in the holding pattern that emerged after the May locals with minor noise moves week to week.
None of the 'scandals' or dramas are moving the dial. The creation of the Dried Fruits will likely be the next mover, weird black swans or Trussery notwithstanding

➡️ REF UK 29% (nc)
🌹 LAB 24% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+2)
🌍 GREEN 7% (-2)
🟡 SNP 3% (nc)

N = 2,084 | Dates:4 - 7/7 | Change w 30/6

The curious incident….

Labour might actually be relived by these polls. It seems that the welfare climbdown has not hurt them - or it has hurt them politically but not electorally (so far). Put it another way, they are already in the toilet but they’re not even further down the toilet = “phew”

Labour will feel they can still win the next election. Tories will feel they are not dead in the water yet, LDs and Greens that progress can be protected and advanced.
Hayward quoted in the Indy today saying he thinks Reform have topped out and that local by elections are a better or as good an indicator of where we are compared to VI polling. In which case, JL Partners get your finger out and update the Polaris model!

It’s really hard to know. Farage has made some errors recently, and Reform are looking fissiparous

And yet the electoral direction of the country still points firmly towards polarisation - some going hard left and green and more going hard right and ??

I see on X that Farage is predicting that Jenrick will take over the Tories and then Jenrick will try and outflank reform by going FURTHER to the right on migration, asylum and woke

A fascinating analysis

You can't out Farage Farage, the Tories would be better off going for say Mel Stride if they removed Kemi and focusing solely on the economy and balancing the books and placing themselves as sensible fiscal conservatives as an alternative to both Labour and Reform.

Badenock has proved she can't out war on woke Nigel and Jenrick couldn't out Farage on sending back the boats and immigrants either.

If Farage lost the next GE and left the Reform leadership then Jenrick would have a better chance as leader and to scoop up Farage's supporters on the right

Ahahahahahaha

As someone once nearly put it, “if ‘Mel Stride’ is the answer, what in the name of God’s Holy Testicles is the question??”

Viable party leader answers where you asked the question wrong
Mel Stride
Zarah Sultana
Liz Truss
Boris Johnson
Iain Duncan Smith

Mel Stride could be very credible, started a successful business (unlike Starmer and Davey) after Oxford (unlike Kemi), grammar school boy (unlike Farage) etc.

If Kemi went he could be the Michael Howard to her IDS.

Boris was of course the only Conservative leader to get Brexit done and beat Corbyn with an overall majority and keep Farage's party under 10%

To what extent is Boris responsible for the Conservative Party's current death spiral? Discuss.

To be honest Truss is the real culprit here shredding any hope of a sensible transistion away from Johnson

Luke Tryl
@LukeTryl

➡️ REF UK 29% (nc)
🌹 LAB 24% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+2)
🌍 GREEN 7% (-2)
🟡 SNP 3% (nc)

N = 2,084 | Dates:4 - 7/7 | Change w 30/6"

https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1942848128119677033

Baxter:

RefUK 321
Lab 164
LD 66
Con 46
SNP 24
PC 4
Grn 2
Others 23

This,looks like the definition of a snooze summer poll. I can almost hear them doing the research from their deckchairs.

So on that poll Farage could form a minority government with DUP and TUV confidence and supply without needing the Tories

That would be the first time Labour and Conservative MPs have sat together on the Opposition benches.

Since universal suffrage yes but from 1906-1918 Conservative and Labour MPs were on the back benches to the Liberal governments of Campbell Bannerman, Asquith and Lloyd George

Yes, you are correct from 1906 to December 1916 but wasn't the Lloyd George Government a coalition with Conservatives and Labour and didn't Asquith and his Liberals go to the opposition benches?

I think Bonar Law was Chancellor and Arthur Henderson also served in the Cabinet.

Yep, the strange death of the Liberal Party 1916-1924
Good job nothing happened to another party of government 2016-2024!

The Liberal party never died, otherwise who are the 72 MPs Ed Davey leads?

It did not lead a UK government again since Lloyd George yes but then it was still a party of the 2010-2015 UK government and the WW2 wartime coalition government and Liberal MPs propped up Callaghan's government too

Sigh. Figuratively speaking, as a party of leading government in the United Kingdom.

.

Hmm, I think Labour's ditching of zonal pricing will have had a material impact on the SNP's chances next year. Such an obvious weakness for UK Government - not sure why they floated it unless they were going to push it through.

I'm already getting targeted ads about subsiding the SE with Tartan Turbines.

It's a huge f-you to Scotland. "You guys with all the wind turbines? Just keep paying London prices for your electricity, kthxbye!"

Miliband is so dumb he's an actual menace.

Fell for big business lobbying.
Which for a self-proclaimed socialist ought to be downright embarrassing.

They don't care as they're getting premium prices for cheap electricity, and get paid for the surplus which can't be used.

I get that the transition to zonal pricing would necessarily be difficult. But to simply abandon it is pitiful stuff.

Kemi seems to all over the place today. No clear theme or direction.

Not at all, she is tying Starmer and his government into knots just as she has been doing recently.

The Tories are right back in with a sniff of power a lot quicker than people thought. As Reform continue to struggle and dwindle, the Conservative vote share is going to grow and grow, built on the performances of Kemi and her front bench in recent months.

What do you base this on, given the recent polls showing the Conservatives around 20% (e.g. the latest one putting them on 19%)?

I think, based on recent canvassing, that most people have largely given up on politics as a source of helpful developments. There is a vague tendency to try Reform, because they've not been tried before, and otherwise lots of people (like me) who feel the situation is difficult and nobody is offering a realistic and coherent way forward.

You know politics well Nick, the performances change for the better before the polls follow suit.

If you just look at the last week or so, Tories are down. If you look a little longer they are just holding their own, if you look back a sensible length of time they are down and out. They are, IMO, about as low as they can be given their irreducible core vote. The rest of the voters are beginning to forget they exist.

The slightly more interesting movement is that, despite being a total disaster, Labour are holding their own and Reform are drifting down. After the last 12 months for Labour to be within about 5 points of the leader is quite good. For the opposition to be trailing third and sometimes vying for fourth is less good.

Tell us for the trillionth time how Labour are on course to win the next GE

Thanks for the invitation; however it needs nuancing. Labour are, with Reform, joint faves for most seats. I think there is a more than 50% chance of a Labour government from 2029. The signs of a Tory recovery are small. The chance of a Reform bust are more than small. The proportion of people in it who are dim lunatics with personality problems who hate large chunks of the human race is greater than needed for comfort.There are four years to go. It is hard, though possible, to imagine Labour being worse than they are now. Easy to imagine Reform coming unstuck either by personalities, moving to the social democrat centre, as they have to, or being taken over by the hard right (which Farage is keen to avoid).

'To the least worst, the spoils'. Labour edge it, for a Bleak House (of Commons) in Hard Times.

Kemi seems to all over the place today. No clear theme or direction.

Not at all, she is tying Starmer and his government into knots just as she has been doing recently.

The Tories are right back in with a sniff of power a lot quicker than people thought. As Reform continue to struggle and dwindle, the Conservative vote share is going to grow and grow, built on the performances of Kemi and her front bench in recent months.

What do you base this on, given the recent polls showing the Conservatives around 20% (e.g. the latest one putting them on 19%)?

I think, based on recent canvassing, that most people have largely given up on politics as a source of helpful developments. There is a vague tendency to try Reform, because they've not been tried before, and otherwise lots of people (like me) who feel the situation is difficult and nobody is offering a realistic and coherent way forward.

You know politics well Nick, the performances change for the better before the polls follow suit.

If you just look at the last week or so, Tories are down. If you look a little longer they are just holding their own, if you look back a sensible length of time they are down and out. They are, IMO, about as low as they can be given their irreducible core vote. The rest of the voters are beginning to forget they exist.

The slightly more interesting movement is that, despite being a total disaster, Labour are holding their own and Reform are drifting down. After the last 12 months for Labour to be within about 5 points of the leader is quite good. For the opposition to be trailing third and sometimes vying for fourth is less good.

Tell us for the trillionth time how Labour are on course to win the next GE

Tell us how it can be Reform, with at least 70% of voters out to destroy the Reform candidate in a FPTP election?

You notice how the Conservative press, Mail, Express, etc have stopped acknowledging Farage existence let alone the cheerleading for him - just like Boris asked them to - and push only for Kemi and the Conservatives?

When the tide turns it’s time to acknowledge it, and buy your fish and chips.

Reform are a bubble in need of a prick. I reckon they'll find one before GE29. Four years is a long life for an unpricked bubble.

That's one thing they aren't short of already

Lol, your goal, my assist.

Luke Tryl
@LukeTryl

➡️ REF UK 29% (nc)
🌹 LAB 24% (nc)
🌳 CON 19% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+2)
🌍 GREEN 7% (-2)
🟡 SNP 3% (nc)

N = 2,084 | Dates:4 - 7/7 | Change w 30/6"

https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1942848128119677033

Baxter:

RefUK 321
Lab 164
LD 66
Con 46
SNP 24
PC 4
Grn 2
Others 23

This,looks like the definition of a snooze summer poll. I can almost hear them doing the research from their deckchairs.

So on that poll Farage could form a minority government with DUP and TUV confidence and supply without needing the Tories

That would be the first time Labour and Conservative MPs have sat together on the Opposition benches.

1906? 1910?

Granted - first time for more than a century.