Best Of

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 29% (-2)
LAB: 21% (+2)
CON: 18% (-2)
GRN: 12% (=)
LDM: 10% (-2)

Via @Survation, 5 Mar.
Changes w/ 28-28 Jan.

https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/2030591642793545769

If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.

Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely

I think the Tories are severely underpriced however I think a Labour-led government of some form has to be the most likely outcome.

If Labour can get back up to 25% then things will look very different.

Starmer’s response to the Iranian conflict is more in tune with the public than Badenoch’s. The conflict is going to be a shambles and that will affect Tory popularity, unless she U-turns, or manages to pick up support from the less Trumpian Reform supporters.

That is not a good thing.

PMs are supposed to be leaders, not followers of opinion polls.

.

Hasn't been that way for a long long time.

Iran

Things to note, things to watch for:

Yes the UAE have entered the war with an offensive strike. The UAE, however, are not happy that news has come out via Israeli sources. That there was a strike by the UAE on a desalination plant is pure speculation.

The US seems in no hurry to deal with the de facto closure of the Strairs of Hormuz, but thats because they actually didnt have surface resources to manage an escort anywhere near the Straits The truth is that the Iranian closure isnt really a chokehold, its been driven by threat more than reality but thats enough it seems. The Saudis can still get quite a lot of materials out and in via the Red Sea though there will need to be an entire tanker respositioning and the fleet owners dont seem keen on being in the Red Sea either. The problem for others is more acute. Something has got to give there and may be driven by the arrival of Ukrainian anti drone systems though these were designed to be close range so how they manage to cover say one side of the Straits is an open question., The reality is the drone is the biggest tool that Iran has, air cover can sort out most of the other threats, anti ship missiles wont last because as soon as they are launched they are likely to be attacked.

If the plan is to put Iran's nuclear ambitions back to the stone age, there are some facilities that may not be able to be destroyed by the air. That leaves then going in and doing it. It can done if the politicial will is there and its not as if Trump isnt willing. He is in this now up to his neck. His position now is keep hammering.

I've avoided making comment to UK preparedness but let no one buy the idea that the UK didnt know, we knew it was coming because any fiundamental look at the resourcing poured in suggested a conflict was probable. We had requests from the Americans for base use ffs. We also probably had a good idea when it was kicking off because we have our own SIGNIT that would have seen it launch. Therefore, there were no excuses. What happened seems to have been a bury the head in the sand and 'its nothing to do with us guv' approach as a protection measure. I find it very unlikely the UK was caught on the hop.

One week in the Iranians still dont have effective central insight and control of their own forces

We had insight that's why in February we moved planes in to the region

We don't have dozens of ships and hundreds of planes any more.

When you cut defence spending by almost 25% for a decade that's inevitable.

Iran

Things to note, things to watch for:

Yes the UAE have entered the war with an offensive strike. The UAE, however, are not happy that news has come out via Israeli sources. That there was a strike by the UAE on a desalination plant is pure speculation.

The US seems in no hurry to deal with the de facto closure of the Strairs of Hormuz, but thats because they actually didnt have surface resources to manage an escort anywhere near the Straits The truth is that the Iranian closure isnt really a chokehold, its been driven by threat more than reality but thats enough it seems. The Saudis can still get quite a lot of materials out and in via the Red Sea though there will need to be an entire tanker respositioning and the fleet owners dont seem keen on being in the Red Sea either. The problem for others is more acute. Something has got to give there and may be driven by the arrival of Ukrainian anti drone systems though these were designed to be close range so how they manage to cover say one side of the Straits is an open question., The reality is the drone is the biggest tool that Iran has, air cover can sort out most of the other threats, anti ship missiles wont last because as soon as they are launched they are likely to be attacked.

If the plan is to put Iran's nuclear ambitions back to the stone age, there are some facilities that may not be able to be destroyed by the air. That leaves then going in and doing it. It can done if the politicial will is there and its not as if Trump isnt willing. He is in this now up to his neck. His position now is keep hammering.

I've avoided making comment to UK preparedness but let no one buy the idea that the UK didnt know, we knew it was coming because any fiundamental look at the resourcing poured in suggested a conflict was probable. We had requests from the Americans for base use ffs. We also probably had a good idea when it was kicking off because we have our own SIGNIT that would have seen it launch. Therefore, there were no excuses. What happened seems to have been a bury the head in the sand and 'its nothing to do with us guv' approach as a protection measure. I find it very unlikely the UK was caught on the hop.

One week in the Iranians still dont have effective central insight and control of their own forces

Survation have a new poll out
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention

RFM 29% (-2)
LAB 21% (+2)
CON 18% (-2)
LD 10% (-2)
GRN 12% (-)
OTH 9% (+2)

F/w 5 March 2026. Changes vs 30/01/2026

Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.

Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit

But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.

The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures

But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.

No he shouldn't, the economy is in a poor state due to Starmer and Reeves' tax rises and failure to control spending and a minimum wage so high now it is too costly to hire for many businesses. Yet thanks to Trump's strikes on Iran which he has deliberately refused to fully support Starmer has managed to get a small bounce in the polls on both the weekend polls

Bit of tory story there. Fair enough. But my point is that the domestic political damage from this war causing inflation and recession will likely outweigh any small polling bounce from his initial response to it.

The economy was already crap due to this useless Labour government, they have only got an undeserved poll bounce due to Starmer's refusing to fully support the strikes.

Any oil price rise they will also just blame on Trump and Iran

No. Oil price up, Petrol up, clamour for fuel duty reduction, Ed M the climate nutter and Rachel the penny pincher veto it. Government approval craters

The economy Labour inherited was beyond crap with various mines added by Hunt

Labour have started to turn it around.

Tory glee at Trump fucking the global economy up is typical Tory

Unpatriotic to the core
Little England nationalists

Turn it around how exactly?

The recent spring forecast, using data from before this conflict began showed:

Growth down
Unemployment up
Youth NEET up

If that is turned around, turn it back again!

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 29% (-2)
LAB: 21% (+2)
CON: 18% (-2)
GRN: 12% (=)
LDM: 10% (-2)

Via @Survation, 5 Mar.
Changes w/ 28-28 Jan.

https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/2030591642793545769

If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.

Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely

I think the Tories are severely underpriced however I think a Labour-led government of some form has to be the most likely outcome.

If Labour can get back up to 25% then things will look very different.

Starmer’s response to the Iranian conflict is more in tune with the public than Badenoch’s. The conflict is going to be a shambles and that will affect Tory popularity, unless she U-turns, or manages to pick up support from the less Trumpian Reform supporters.

What the government says its response is, what the public think its response is, what it actually is and, crucially, how its handling it are completely disconnected entities.
The effects on ratings and VI might end up similarly disconnected

The public would likely support 200 billion investment in the NHS, and the government might say its their policy. If they then buy 200 billion Freddos to be given out free at Nurse stations and GP receptions..........

Im going to make a Woolie call

Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre
Cost of living trumps Trump

What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.

It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.

My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.

If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.

With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.

If they save their seat.

At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.

Given the SNP doesn't want to drill for anymore oil anymore than Ed Miliband does and are equally as net zero obsessed it doesn't

Would $200 oil lead to a massive swing to the Tories and Reform in Scotland in May?