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Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Morning all 
Sad to hear of the passing of Sir Bob Worcester and, as @TSE says, one of the great polling experts of his time.
On to other things, I only saw snippets of the Sky immigration debate - my "take" on it was there was actually quite broad cencensus among the politicians "something needed to be done" - the only trouble was, nobody knew what or had any coherent, legal or practical solutions. Nobody spoke in favour of large scale immigration.
We also had the usual "no one listens to the public" from the public themselves and while I have an element of sympathy, I actually don't. Immigration has been around the British political debate since Windrush and in truth before that. Politicians have listened though not embraced some of the more extreme solutions now being peddled on social media such as the wholesale deportation of the Islamic or non-white communities.
As always, it comes back to practicalities, the Devil, as always, is in the detail as Farage found out. Sweeping general promises often unravel quickly when confronted with specific issues - returning women to Afghanistan, returning children anywhere. We also have, as has been pointed out, to "sweeten" the deal for the returns , it seems, by providing money to unpleasant regimes such as in Afghanistan or Eritrea but realpolitik dictates you often have to sup with the Devil - it's the length of your spoon that then becomes the issue.

Sad to hear of the passing of Sir Bob Worcester and, as @TSE says, one of the great polling experts of his time.
On to other things, I only saw snippets of the Sky immigration debate - my "take" on it was there was actually quite broad cencensus among the politicians "something needed to be done" - the only trouble was, nobody knew what or had any coherent, legal or practical solutions. Nobody spoke in favour of large scale immigration.
We also had the usual "no one listens to the public" from the public themselves and while I have an element of sympathy, I actually don't. Immigration has been around the British political debate since Windrush and in truth before that. Politicians have listened though not embraced some of the more extreme solutions now being peddled on social media such as the wholesale deportation of the Islamic or non-white communities.
As always, it comes back to practicalities, the Devil, as always, is in the detail as Farage found out. Sweeping general promises often unravel quickly when confronted with specific issues - returning women to Afghanistan, returning children anywhere. We also have, as has been pointed out, to "sweeten" the deal for the returns , it seems, by providing money to unpleasant regimes such as in Afghanistan or Eritrea but realpolitik dictates you often have to sup with the Devil - it's the length of your spoon that then becomes the issue.
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Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
I can understand a poor showing at one PMQs. It's a bearpit.Gone by MondayFair comment but it doesn't excuse us keeping Mandelson in officeOoh , ooh I know that one. When Boris Johnson became Foreign Secretary.Where on earth did Labour find Mike Tapp ?Good morning
I was expecting him to say Gary Glitter was our new ambassador to Russia
Last night on the immigration debate on Sky he wore a union jack tie so much a tradition for labour politicians
This morning, again on Sky, he was evasive about Mandelson being asked to attend FO affairs committee and even said everything is out now about Mandelson
I am very much in agreement with Labour mps and others that Mandelson has to go now
Epstein v Trump - cannot control Trump's position
Epstein v Andrew - ostracised by society
Epstein v Mandelson - cannot be moved because it may upset Trump
Since when have we lost our moral compass?
This story is world news and he shames our country as long as he remains in office
I expect this weekends papers will be all over this issue
In my geekiness I watched PMQ’s last night. To see this improved Badenoch performance. She was good - eloquent, stuck to her brief, pressed cleverly - but she’ll have to do a lot more than “good” to have a chance of saving her job
What surprised me was Starmer, and how bad he was. He’s a professional lawyer of high esteem? - he must have prepped for questions about Mandy. But he looked nonplussed, bewildered, even a bit scared
He was so poor it was peculiar. Starmer is not a happy man
But, far more worringly, for a man whose only real selling point is supposed technocratic competence to have appointed an obvious risk like Mandelson to a key post, over the heads of far more qualified professionals, in the face of numerous warnings and despite knowing about the many skeletons in his closet, shows quite incredibly poor judgement.
This shows him in a much worse light than Rayner, who was elected deputy leader and who Starmer probably had in office just to appease to the loony left.

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Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Lineker's new ITV game show has not been shown yet so that cannot be why viewers voted for him. The more obvious reason is he is suddenly missed from Match of the Day.Thanks, I was actually aware of it being an ITV show giving awards to ITV shows and presenters having seen it previously 🙄From the NTA’s.An award show that is voted for by ITV viewers giving a number of awards to ITV programs and presenters - it's not a surprise.
This is the great British Public for you.
Freddie Flintoff - Nearly Died
Rob Burrow - Died
Strictly Amy - Living with cancer
Molly Mae - Split up with her boyfriend
Which one wins the NTA… absolute bollocks #ntaawards
https://x.com/jord9393/status/1965884420617023623?s=61
Also Molly Mae's show was a lighter touch with a large audience than the other programs.
My commentary was more about the voters. I never said it was a surprise.
I wasn’t surprised Lineker won either given he’s moved to ITV with a new gameshow.
Glad you enjoyed the Molly Mae show thing. Z list celebrity relationship break ups aren’t my thing so I passed on it.
Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
@PippaCrerarIsn't it ironic that all the fawning Starmer displayed at his meeting with Trump, and producing the invitation for the state visit from his pocket with euch panache, should come back and bite him so hard when in truth the invitation should never have been given
Real distress in Labour ranks about Peter Mandelson emails to Jeffrey Epstein. While No 10 knew about links, his remarks after conviction detail closeness of relationship.
Home office minister Mike Tapp said he was “really disturbed” by them. Former frontbencher Andy McDonald said there was “widespread revulsion” in party.
Privately, MPs go further. One told me: “It’s obvious from space that the PM must sack Peter Mandelson. The No10 position appears to be ‘we knew about this but appointed him anyway’.
“It is completely indefensible and untenable. This risks being Chris Pincher on steroids.”
Starmer will be balancing all of this, with the recognition that White House would be furious if Mandelson goes over Epstein - because Trump is in even deeper. The State visit could not come at worse time.
Re: A damning indictment on our politicians – politicalbetting.com
Charlie Kirk's murder is America's story. Like others downthread, I knew the name but I thought he was a middle aged Fox News anchor....
What I will say is that its quite an unusual range kill in the USA, accurate and the killer appears to have had an exit from somewhere that had at least some security. I think you can safely assume they are a bit better than the average American with a gun.
What I will say is that its quite an unusual range kill in the USA, accurate and the killer appears to have had an exit from somewhere that had at least some security. I think you can safely assume they are a bit better than the average American with a gun.

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Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
They were great ads, playing well on Gary's "goodie two shoes" image*.The principle of a sportsman selling greasy snacks to youngsters?My thoughts this evening are with the loved ones of Charlie Kirk.Your post on the last thread about Lineker's award ought to teach Starmer a lesson. That you don't have to be a vacuous principle free zone to to get the support of the public
It is heartbreaking that a young family has been robbed of a father and a husband.
We must all be free to debate openly and freely without fear - there can be no justification for political violence.
https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1965896152345415805
While agreeing with the sentiments, what concern is it of the British Prime Minister that someone has been shot in America? Or is this the price our ambassador recommends for keeping tariffs at bay?
And that bit – We must all be free to debate openly and freely without fear – might come back to haunt him.
There's a Leicester side to it too. Gary's dad had a fruit stall in Leicester market just a couple of hundred yards from where Walkers butchers is. In the late 1940s Walkers diversified into making crisps, and the rest is history. Walkers is still a major employer locally, and Gary's remembers his roots. A top bloke in my book.
*famously never getting carded for example.

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Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
Many years ago they did an article about me in a newspaper and shortly after I got a phone call from a woman with a very Liverpudlian accent asking me to take some nude photos of her daughter. My assistant put the call on loudspeaker and passed me the phone. I told her I was very sorry but I didn't do private work.NoIf I were Farage and the Tories I would be very happy.Emily Thornberry withdraws from the deputy leader race.Emily Thornberry withdraws from the deputy leader race.Boo,
https://x.com/EmilyThornberry/status/1966033971437080652
I was hoping she might make this an interesting contest.
The idea that Labour go into the next election with a leader and deputy leader who are both lawyers would have scared me and led to another Labour landslide.
Miss Piggy trying to wrap herself in a St Georges flag would simply emphasis how far Labour have lost touch with their roots. Bootle nailed on so to speak.
'But she's really beautiful and has won a competition' she said.
'What competition?' I asked
'Miss Bootle Rose'
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Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
No Trump banned Epstein from Mar-a-Lago after Trump bought a property in Florida, allegedly (and according to Epstein) with money from Russia, which Trump shortly after sold to another Russian Oligarchs for twice it's acknowledged value. Epstein was pissed off and they cut their ties....Err no, Trump disassociated himself from Epstein because he was being a creep towards staff at Mar-a-Lago.With a diplomatic slant like that you should be the next Ambassador.Given what’s come out in the last 24 hours, Mandy’s got no chance of holding on to that position.Every few years the ratchet moves a further notch, and we adopt yet more American ways of doing things. Not a good direction of travel.I don't think so. It looks like Phillipson vs Powell, but Phillipson has a lot of backbench support too.Starmer is desperately trying to stabilise the ship, burt if Philipson wins he will have an element of muttering on the backbenches of a fix, if he loses he probably has to live with a thorn in his side. But does he care ? Probably beyond that now.So today we find out how fixed the Labour DL contest has become.Would be ironic if DL means that some up and coming keen type misses out on the top job if Starmer loses it…
It's notable that Thornberry and Ribero-Addy got just a handful of nominations, and those from the usual suspects. It doesn't look like either a major fight or a stitch up.
The Mandleson affair was very foolish of Starmer. I posted here on the folly of appointing him at the time. It was a job for a career diplomat who has been trained for it. This isn't America where ambassadorships are handed out as payback for political favours.
And now BBC pundits saying they can’t sack Mandelson because it might upset Trump. Incredible.
Trump very clearly and publicly disassociated himself from Epstein before his first conviction, and is very unlikely to want to have anything to do with someone who’s just been exposed as a good friend and supporter well after he was imprisoned.
Starmer might want to see this, as his predecessor’s advisor once said, as a good day to bury bad news in the US.
Trump only disassociated himself from Epstein because of a duplicitous real estate deal. Trump may or may not have settled the score by informing the FBI on Epstein's activities.
I don't believe as you are implying Trump unhitched himself from Epstein because he was outraged at the child sex trafficking which to that point he had been unaware of.
Trump did not kick Epstein out for seedy behaviour. On that metric he would have to ban himself.
After he has sold Ukraine down the river why are you still excusing this vile man with Team Trump subterfuge?
Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
They were like bald men fighting over a comb...Err no, Trump disassociated himself from Epstein because he was being a creep towards staff at Mar-a-Lago.With a diplomatic slant like that you should be the next Ambassador.Given what’s come out in the last 24 hours, Mandy’s got no chance of holding on to that position.Every few years the ratchet moves a further notch, and we adopt yet more American ways of doing things. Not a good direction of travel.I don't think so. It looks like Phillipson vs Powell, but Phillipson has a lot of backbench support too.Starmer is desperately trying to stabilise the ship, burt if Philipson wins he will have an element of muttering on the backbenches of a fix, if he loses he probably has to live with a thorn in his side. But does he care ? Probably beyond that now.So today we find out how fixed the Labour DL contest has become.Would be ironic if DL means that some up and coming keen type misses out on the top job if Starmer loses it…
It's notable that Thornberry and Ribero-Addy got just a handful of nominations, and those from the usual suspects. It doesn't look like either a major fight or a stitch up.
The Mandleson affair was very foolish of Starmer. I posted here on the folly of appointing him at the time. It was a job for a career diplomat who has been trained for it. This isn't America where ambassadorships are handed out as payback for political favours.
And now BBC pundits saying they can’t sack Mandelson because it might upset Trump. Incredible.
Trump very clearly and publicly disassociated himself from Epstein before his first conviction, and is very unlikely to want to have anything to do with someone who’s just been exposed as a good friend and supporter well after he was imprisoned.
Starmer might want to see this, as his predecessor’s advisor once said, as a good day to bury bad news in the US.
Trump only disassociated himself from Epstein because of a duplicitous real estate deal. Trump may or may not have settled the score by informing the FBI on Epstein's activities.
I don't believe as you are implying Trump unhitched himself from Epstein because he was outraged at the child sex trafficking which to that point he had been unaware of.

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Re: Focus on the share of the vote not the lead – politicalbetting.com
What a surprise that you support the slimeball, Labour make Tories look like angels.@JasonGroves1That's not correct. Clearly Mandelson was unreasonably loyal to his friend beyond common sense. But it doesn't mean he's not the right ambassador to the current US. Probably best to get the Trump visit over with and then see.
Former Labour frontbencher Andy McDonald says there is ‘widespread revulsion’ in the Labour Party about the Mandelson revelations and calls for him to go immediately: ‘There isn’t anybody in the Labour Party who is supporting Peter Mandelson today and the PM has to hear that’

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