Best Of

Opinium
Ref 29 (-1)
Lab 21 (+3)
Con 16 (-2)
Grn 14 (+1)
LD 10 (-2)

Remarkably.
That poll puts the Conservatives as SIXTH largest Party in seats.

If you put it in electoral calculas it gives 373 seats for reform, labour down 344 seats to 68, lib dem 54 and conservatives 33

If you think that will be the result I am sure you will get excellent odds

And 52 Green. 44 SNP.
I never said I believed it would be the result. However, it does just show how precarious the positions of Labour and the Tories are.
And just how low Reform can go and still win a majority if no one else breaks free of the pack.

And if there is no anti Reform tactical voting but there likely will be. Nonetheless overall a good Opinium poll for Farage, even if 1% down still enough on its own for a Reform majority and Starmer as Labour break free of the pack and squeeze the Tories and LDs a little and remain well ahead of the Greens with Starmer's keeping out of US and Israeli offensive strikes on Iran

Whats that about Starmer keeping out of US offensive strikes on Iran with 4 B1 bombers each with a payload of 24 cruise missiles is readying to fly and attack Iran from Fairford ?

They are not allowed to strike Tehran buildings only missile launchers

Trail hunting B1s

The nightmare for Starmer is if Trump ignores him and tells US bombers flying from UK bases to bomb Tehran buildings anyway. What would SKS then do? Send some jets to try and stop US bombers landing at UK bases? He can't shoot the US bombers down otherwise Trump would see that as a near declaration of war by the UK on the USA. I suppose Starmer could try and stop the bombers being filled with fuel on the ground?

The US bases in the UK are legally RAF bases. If Starmer gave the order the army could turn up and park a couple of Warrior IFVs on the runway. Not a damn thing the USAF could do about it.

Trump would go ape-shit, which is why it won't happen.

Trump has just posted that basically Starmer is a loser and so late to the war that he is shite etc etc

Who would want to be PM in these circumstances?

What would Winston do? Honestly, I dont know.

Opinium
Ref 29 (-1)
Lab 21 (+3)
Con 16 (-2)
Grn 14 (+1)
LD 10 (-2)

Remarkably.
That poll puts the Conservatives as SIXTH largest Party in seats.

If you put it in electoral calculas it gives 373 seats for reform, labour down 344 seats to 68, lib dem 54 and conservatives 33

If you think that will be the result I am sure you will get excellent odds

And 52 Green. 44 SNP.
I never said I believed it would be the result. However, it does just show how precarious the positions of Labour and the Tories are.
And just how low Reform can go and still win a majority if no one else breaks free of the pack.

And if there is no anti Reform tactical voting but there likely will be. Nonetheless overall a good Opinium poll for Farage, even if 1% down still enough on its own for a Reform majority and Starmer as Labour break free of the pack and squeeze the Tories and LDs a little and remain well ahead of the Greens with Starmer's keeping out of US and Israeli offensive strikes on Iran

Whats that about Starmer keeping out of US offensive strikes on Iran with 4 B1 bombers each with a payload of 24 cruise missiles is readying to fly and attack Iran from Fairford ?

They are not allowed to strike Tehran buildings only missile launchers

Trail hunting B1s

The nightmare for Starmer is if Trump ignores him and tells US bombers flying from UK bases to bomb Tehran buildings anyway. What would SKS then do? Send some jets to try and stop US bombers landing at UK bases? He can't shoot the US bombers down otherwise Trump would see that as a near declaration of war by the UK on the USA. I suppose Starmer could try and stop the bombers being filled with fuel on the ground?

The US bases in the UK are legally RAF bases. If Starmer gave the order the army could turn up and park a couple of Warrior IFVs on the runway. Not a damn thing the USAF could do about it.

Trump would go ape-shit, which is why it won't happen.

HMS Pointless.

HMS Prince of Wales placed on five days’ notice to sail in response to Middle East crisis
https://www.navylookout.com/hms-prince-of-wales-placed-on-five-days-notice-to-sail-in-response-to-middle-east-crisis/
The Royal Navy is increasing the readiness of the aircraft carrier, HMS Prince of Wales. The move shortens the time required for the carrier to put to sea, should the government decide additional naval forces are needed.
It should be made clear this change of posture does not mean she will definitely be deployed, but increased readiness offers options. Alerting warships to be prepared in response to changing events is normal practice.
Prince of Wales is nearing the end of a maintenance period that followed her return from the 8-month HIGHMAST deployment in December, but she remained the carrier at high readiness. (HMS Queen Elizabeth’s ongoing docking and certification period in Rosyth is now several months behind schedule, and it could be some time before she returns to service.)
Reducing the notice to sail from 14 days to 5 days requires preparations to be accelerated. Final maintenance tasks must be completed, the ship’s company recalled from leave and training courses and all systems checked to ensure the ship is at the highest state of readiness. The ship already has aircraft ordnance and munitions in her magazines that were embarked last year.
Should it be decided to send the carrier to the eastern Med or beyond, the immediate problem would be finding escorts...

Kneejerk reaction to the French deployment.

This is a good non-technical video by the influential internet economic commentator Patrick Boyle, who I think is an Irishman living in the UK (well he's definitely an Irishman, but I THINK he lives here), about what's wrong with our stagnant economy.

I don't agree with all of it - in particular I think he overestimates the part played by leaving the EU, doesn't blame high taxes, as opposed to a flawed tax system enough, and barely touches on overregulation, except in our disastrous housebuilding industry, and he doesn't exactly break new ground.

But it's a decent summary of the issues, especially how high taxes price people out of work and regulation out of housing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3neJOdknqc

Now ask yourself if you can see Starmer and Reeves addressing any of them, as opposed to making them notably worse.

And then look out for airborne bacon.

I watch Patrick Boyle a lot, he's frequently hilarious (and definitely worked here for a long time, whether he does now I don't know). Not some whinging lefty or raving rightist.

Yes, his videos about the Epstein imbroglio have been absolutely excellent, even though they're not what he usually does.

He gives good non-techinical explanations of technical economic matters. As I have spent much of my career doing the same I can appreciate when someone else does it well, even if I don't agree with all of his conclusions.

This is a good non-technical video by the influential internet economic commentator Patrick Boyle, who I think is an Irishman living in the UK (well he's definitely an Irishman, but I THINK he lives here), about what's wrong with our stagnant economy.

I don't agree with all of it - in particular I think he overestimates the part played by leaving the EU, doesn't blame high taxes, as opposed to a flawed tax system enough, and barely touches on overregulation, except in our disastrous housebuilding industry, and he doesn't exactly break new ground.

But it's a decent summary of the issues, especially how high taxes price people out of work and regulation out of housing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3neJOdknqc

Now ask yourself if you can see Starmer and Reeves addressing any of them, as opposed to making them notably worse.

And then look out for airborne bacon.

I watch Patrick Boyle a lot, he's frequently hilarious (and definitely worked here for a long time, whether he does now I don't know). Not some whinging lefty or raving rightist.