Best Of

Another mediocre performance from Nigel. Despite Reform's leading in opinion polls - more to do with Labour and Tory collapse than any convincing Reform enthusiasm - Nigel hasn't really done anything good for some time. This isn't a Ming vase strategy because there've been quite a few missteps along the way, although Nigel has been lucky that they tend to go under the media's radar. Nigel can't keep flatlining like this for ever. I'd say he's got about six months' grace from here. After that he needs to start showing a bit of oomph.

I think there's a bit of wishful thinking there. Would you expect Reform to get 36% in South Wales? The "right" got less than 20% last time.

They can't win everywhere. Obviously it's not as good a result as if they had won, although they could have easily won with 36% of the vote if other parties' votes had fallen differently.

It is of course instructive that anti-Reform tactical voting appears to be a thing, at least in more left-leaning areas. So they may underperform their vote share at a general election.

Can they win a election flatlining? Absolutely. It is the election they need to win, not the opinion polls. Maintaining a steady ~30% will show they are getting people who support them long term, not just as a one-off protest vote. They then need just a few percent from the election campaign. Of course they could lose a few percent too.

Morning all

I enjoy wittering on about the Conservative Party - I know it annoys the "old school" Tories who proliferate on here.

The party is approaching a crossroads (not as in a fictional suburban Birmingham hotel). It's quite clear there is a niche (not perhaps a large one but one nonetheless) for a party determined to talk about sound finances and being supportive of business and aspiration (the details on that to follow presumably).

The corollary of that is recognising some form of immigration (specialist, professional, skilled but not exclusively) is needed to foster economic growth, raise tax revenues and cover our spending commitments whether they be welfare, defence or debt interest repayments. That's not to advocate uncontrolled mass immigration by any stretch but acknowledging there is a strong economic argument for importing (as well as developing internally) the skills required to grow the economy.

In the current mood, such a party might not poll well but might have the advantage of sounding coherent - sometimes you need to say what's right, not necessarily what people want to hear (Stodge's Eleventh Law of Politics).

The other side of that is looking at other parties realistically and seeing with whom these objectives can best be advanced or achieved in any future Parliament without an overall majority for any one party.

Theer are three options - first, move closer to Reform and accept the likely role of being a junior partner in a Government led by Farage and Tice. That means encouraging your voters to vote Reform in any seat where the Conservatives have no chance and Reform do. Second, move away from Reform and toward other parties as part of a broad anti-Reform movement - encourage your voters to vote tactically in any constituency where the Conservatives have no chance against Reform and choosing the party (whichever it may be) most likely to stop Reform.

The third option is to do neither and adopt the good old Alliance policy of equidistance. If you want sensible Conservative policies, vote Conservative would seem the obvious approach. There's an old adage "to thine own self be true" but first you have to decide what that "own self" really is and in what it believes.

This is the challenge which afflicted the Alliance and the Lib Dems from the mid 1980s to 2010 - in an unstable and potentially chaotic post-election Parliament, you might be the kingmaker - on whose head do you put the crown?

Have we ever had a header outlining Stodge's laws in full ?

I find it increasingly bizarre that so many on here return to the question of Brexit at every opportunity, even if the links require the most tortuous of reasoning. Anyone who persuades themselves that it is still Brexit that is driving Reform or their voters is deluding themselves. The country has moved on, Brexit is neither the land of milk and honey promised or the disaster predicted. We have so many real and profound problems to address, not only economic (although they are particularly acute) but also cultural and social.

Except Nigel Fucking Farage is the face of both

You can't pretend there is no connection between them

He promised them the moon on a stick if they voted for Brexit

They voted for Brexit

it's shit (even they say so)

Now he is offering them the moon on a stick if they vote RefUK

But that's totally different...

Can I interest you in a bridge? One careful owner

I know you absolutely hate Brexit - you've been fairly clear on that. But it is 'shit'? Its not clear that the situation in the UK is that different. The biggest economic shocks were Covid (a once in 100 years event) and the war in Ukraine. Its not as if the EU is somehow surging ahead and the UK is trailing behind. Since 2007 much of the West has seen little or no economic growth. Its as if there is a wider problem going on.

Yes Farage is trying to pull the same trick twice. Sadly too many gullible (and desperate) people may well be fooled again. Look at that complete loon Leon, banned yet again because he cannot comply with simple instructions. He's the biggest Reform promotor on here.

🟡 PC: 15,961 (+7,750)
➡️ RFM: 12,113 (+11,618)
🔴 LAB: 3,713 (−9,576)
🔵 CON: 690 (−4,323)
🟢 GRN: 516 (NEW)
🟠 LDM: 497 (−290)
⚪ GWLAD: 117 (NEW)
🟣 UKIP: 79 (NEW)

Not close in the end. Look at the Labour and Tory scores.....dockerside hooker treatment.

3000 votes still pretty close.

Clearly massive Labour tactical voting for Plaid, most Tory voters went Reform and a few Labour voters did though but most Labour voters went Plaid

Yes. This must be seen as the 'right' result, because clearly there's still a far bigger left wing (soft and hard) vote there than a right wing one. PC had even more votes they could have squeezed from Labour and a few from the other parties. Reform sucked up the Tory vote very efficiently and there was really little they could have done.

It's not the result that I had hoped for, but it shows there's still a long way for Reform to go. The only real solution is to win people over to the right of politics, by making convincing arguments.

Agreed (though as a leftie I don't want people to be convinced by those arguments).

If this is one tiny nail in the coffin of the paper thin populist simplistic solutions to our problems, whether from the right or the left, then that's a good thing.

However, it's not just on the right that there is a lack of convincing arguments. Much as I like Polanski's presence on the political stage, for example, he stills speaks economic illiteracy, just as Farage does.

Well done to Plaid.

But 0% to 36% in one election cycle is pretty impressive too. Or should that be pretty worrying?

Good morning, everybody.

Adonis has told Guardian he thinks it shows how a group of voters will get behind whoever seems strongest/likeliest at the time to block Reform.

Would be interesting to see if Labour and Lib Dem supporters would vote Tory if the Tories are the best chance to stop Reform or is that going too far? Has there been any polling on this?

There has been some private polling which says yes but there's a huge caveat, the focus groups have picked up Robert Jenrick's and Katie Lam's recent comments and those tactical voters have said no now as they see nothing that distinguishes the Tories from Reform.

The thought of deporting people who are here lawfully is particularly repugnant to voters, see the Windrush scandal.

A Jenrick led Conservatives won't get tactical votes to beat Reform, it basically would be Reform 2 anyway. A Badenoch led Conservatives wouldn't get many either as Kemi is now aping Jenrick more.

A Cleverly led Conservatives though could well get Labour and LD voters holding their noses in Tory held seats and voting Conservative to beat Reform