Best Of

Im going to make a Woolie call

Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre
Cost of living trumps Trump

What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.

It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.

My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.

If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.

With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.

If they save their seat.

At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.

By what mechanism? UDI?

You wouldn't know this Sir Keir, he went to a different school.

'Sir Keir Starmer stands by claim SNP would have mandate for indyref2 if they win Holyrood elections'

https://news.sky.com/story/sir-keir-starmer-stands-by-claim-snp-would-have-mandate-for-indyref2-if-they-win-holyrood-elections-12079692

Ah, so THAT's the one thing he hasn't u-turned on.

Yet.

Oh yes he has!

https://news.stv.tv/politics/keir-starmer-says-second-indyref-wont-happen-even-if-snp-are-re-elected

In the Atlantic: If "Vance promised one thing during the 2024 presidential campaign, it was that America would not enter into a war with Iran of the kind that is currently raging,” Kahloon writes. “These arguments look farcical now that President Trump has chosen—months after bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities and pronouncing its enrichment efforts ‘completely and totally obliterated’—to join Israel in launching a war on the Islamic Republic.”

When Vance became vice president, his ideas included “a more modest place for the United States in world affairs; a new, worker-friendly version of Republican economics; and aggressive, Teddy Roosevelt–style regulation of Big Business,” Kahloon writes. But “little Vanceism is discernible in the administration’s actions” on economics, foreign policy, and other issues.

“This is a major comedown from the role he once seemed likely to fill. Vance’s nomination as vice president was not a concession to the Republican Party of old, but a promise of the Republican Party to come, of Trumpism after Trump. Instead, he has receded in importance in the past year

Vance, and the GOP generally, requires the removal of Trump after the mid terms.

Its amazing that the political situation is repeating in consecutive presidencies.

We will see if the GOP manage the situation better than the Dems did with Biden.

If the Democrats win a landslide in the midterms as the GOP didn't manage in 2022 then impeachment comes on the cards again for Trump and Vance will bide his time and keep his head down as heir apparent. The Gerald Ford or Rishi Sunak to Trump's Nixon or Boris

For impeachment to be a realistic chance the Dems have to win every single Republican seat up for grabs in the Senate. Including Oklahoma.

I will file that under 'not happening.'

The best case scenario is getting enough votes to make it impossible for Trump to appoint any new Supreme Court justices and tying him in procedural knots so he can't enact his agenda. That requires four net gains.

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2030598834221416717

The UAE has struck a desalination plant in Iran -Israeli Media

Would be the first confirmed UAE strike on Iran, and follows a pattern of escalating strikes against critical water infrastructure in the Gulf region

I thought you hawks were doing this to unshackle the Iranian people, not for them to die of thirst.

I think that annoucement is quite extraordinary in that a gulf state on it's own decision and with its military attacks Iranian infrastructure

This is an escalation directly as a result of Iran firing drones and missiles at and over friendly states

The GCC isn’t particularly friendly to Iran even before the last couple of weeks

I don't think the Iranians banked on GCC retaliation.

Well what the fuck did they expect in return for 1,500 drones and missiles aimed at the UAE, plus a thousand more aimed at a dozen more countries in the region?

Did they expect them all to say “muslims good and Jews bad, let’s all bomb Israel”?

https://x.com/osint613/status/2030384051006423336

Saudi writer Abdulrahman Al-Rashed:

"We have never seen Israel or America launching missiles at Gulf capitals. Iran is the one that did that.

Defending Iran because it raises the banner of Palestine while ignoring what it did to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Gulf is a grave insult to the Arab countries that bore the cost for four decades."

The decision to go for desalination plants may not be a good strategy. Iran has aiui proportionally far more natural water supply than the Gulf States.

With its reservoirs at 10% that seems improbable.

Drinking water is mainly groundwater.

But in the aquifer stakes they are running them down at pace.

(Updated to remove derogatory reference to Kent.)

Apparently the Iranian issue with water is a growing population, existing sources running down (as you say) and a refusal to invest in capacity (reservoirs and water treatment plants)

This reminds me of something. Can’t quite put my finger on it.

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 29% (-2)
LAB: 21% (+2)
CON: 18% (-2)
GRN: 12% (=)
LDM: 10% (-2)

Via @Survation, 5 Mar.
Changes w/ 28-28 Jan.

https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/2030591642793545769

If this is anything like what the situation is actually at the moment, the Labour will surely be a hot favourite for a 2029 win.

Im leaning towards Lab or Con minority being underpriced. Majority anyone feels very unlikely

It's not impossible for a party to get a Starmeresque majority on less than 30% of the vote.

Thanks to FPTP!
If Starmer were to bring in some reasonable form of PR then the situation would magically alter.

On a different topic, surely the whole issue in the ME hangs around religion. The Mullahs and indeed Iran are Shia Moslems. Much (not all) the rest of the Moslem Middle East is Sunni. They are about as likely to agree as Protestant Christians and Catholic ones were in Europe around 500 years ago.
The Jews of Israel just add an extra dimension.

I think Trump's insane to get mixed up in it, except perhaps to defend/assist Israel, due to Western guilt, and Starmer's absolutely right to treat the whole matter with extreme caution.

Sunni and Shia

I got you babe

Survation have a new poll out
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention

RFM 29% (-2)
LAB 21% (+2)
CON 18% (-2)
LD 10% (-2)
GRN 12% (-)
OTH 9% (+2)

F/w 5 March 2026. Changes vs 30/01/2026

Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.

Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit

But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.

The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures

But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.

It’s been a funny few months of economic data. PMI was well up, gilt yields were going down, stock market soaring, productivity growing finally after over a decade. But GDP very sluggish and unemployment up, and inflation stubborn.

I’m inclined to agree the forward looking stats were good even as the backward looking ones were stalling.

Yes there were some (modest) reasons to be (modestly) cheerful. Now maybe not so much. More evidence for what I firmly believe to be true - the UK's overall economic performance is largely dependent on external factors. Government policies aren't irrelevant but they tend to be outweighed by what happens elsewhere.

Survation have a new poll out
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention

RFM 29% (-2)
LAB 21% (+2)
CON 18% (-2)
LD 10% (-2)
GRN 12% (-)
OTH 9% (+2)

F/w 5 March 2026. Changes vs 30/01/2026

Further good news for SKS with gold standard Survation following on from Labour's gains with Opinium yesterday as Reform's lead narrows. Labour up and now a clear second and Reform, the Tories and LDs down and the Greens unchanged and well back in 4th and barely ahead of the LDs.

Looks like distancing himself from Trump on the Iran strikes has helped Starmer shore up the Labour vote a bit

But otoh just as the economy was (maybe) looking a bit more promising along comes MaxiMoron to create another bout of inflation and instability.

The economy wasn't looking that promising, unemployment is up, prices still high and growth and wage rises slow on the latest figures

But some other metrics looking better. And now this. Negative on all fronts esp interest rates and cost of living. It's SKS who should be pissed off with Trump not the other way round. Of course he will be although he feels he can't say so.

No he shouldn't, the economy is in a poor state due to Starmer and Reeves' tax rises and failure to control spending and a minimum wage so high now it is too costly to hire for many businesses. Yet thanks to Trump's strikes on Iran which he has deliberately refused to fully support Starmer has managed to get a small bounce in the polls on both the weekend polls

Bit of tory story there. Fair enough. But my point is that the domestic political damage from this war causing inflation and recession will likely outweigh any small polling bounce from his initial response to it.

The economy was already crap due to this useless Labour government, they have only got an undeserved poll bounce due to Starmer's refusing to fully support the strikes.

Any oil price rise they will also just blame on Trump and Iran

And Reform

It’s a convenient excuse for them

Im going to make a Woolie call

Any Labour 'no bases/leave oor Keir alone' bounce' wont survive beyond about £1.60/litre
Cost of living trumps Trump

What would replacing Keir do beyond tarring the next person with the same brush.

It would be better for SKS to weather the pain and when prices starting falling you bring in someone else and take advantage of the bounce.

My view is that the next Labour leader would be very wise to not dump much of the fundamental policy platform of the government because it hasn't been given enough time to bed in yet.

If the next leader wants to be successful they'll come in just as things are starting to improve. IMHO that is why nobody has yet moved against him.

With $200 a barrel, they could be waiting the other side of the election.

If they save their seat.

At $200 a barrel, Scotland goes independent.

By what mechanism? UDI?

The past couple of weeks have shown that Scotland has nothing to fear from the British Navy. 😄