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David Aaronovitch
@DAaronovitch

My friend @PeterKellner1 is the only polling expert I read who got remotely close to the actual result in Makerfield. It was so far away from what the polling organisations were showing that there's clearly an inquest to be had

https://x.com/DAaronovitch/status/2067839683703243034

Oh goodness, not another Lords enquiry *please*

☹️

I’ve already applied for the job of chairing the enquiry into the enquiry about enquiries.

Can I take the job of chairing the enquiry into your enquiry into the enquiry about enquiries.

- it was a waste of money but did wonders for Mal’s retirement fund

On condition that I chair the enquiry into your enquiry into the enquiry into your enquiry into the enquiry about enquiries.

Obviously.

I'll take notes for all of them I guess. Standard rates, AI misses the nuance.

EnquiryGPT will be in prod in 1/2 an hour.

This will deliver generic pseudo legalese bollocks on any meta level of enquiries.

This will facilitate the leveraging of AI to increase productivity in the Enquiry Industrial complex in all metrics and KPIs.

Those who were here earlier may be interested to know that the quiche has been discovered. I am off to retrieve it...

I hope it wasn't sitting out in the sun somewhere all that time... give us an update on how tasty it is!

Is quiche still a kind of marker of being a pussilaminous hand-wringing metropolitan liberal I wonder, or has that role been superceded by tofu?

What do you have against tofu ?

I love tofu! But "tofu eating wokerati" has become a term of abuse on the right, I believe.

I thought that was “avocado on toast” or is that just spendthrift 20-somethings?

I am warming to Meloni.

TRUMP SPARKS DIPLOMATIC CRISIS WITH ITALY: Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has canceled his planned June 21–22 trip to Washington after President Trump insulted Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, claiming she “begged” for a photo with him at the G7 and that he “felt sorry for her.”

Meloni released a video firing back at Trump’s comments, calling them “completely fabricated.”

“I am frankly appalled,” she said. “I don’t know why the President of the United States behaves this way towards his allies.”

She added that Trump appears to show more accommodation toward “the enemies of the West” than America’s allies and concluded by saying: “Italy and I never beg.”
https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/2067940653401596320

I've been thinking about the new Burnham Cabinet.

He has to find room for Rayner and Streeting (and himself).
i think Reeves, Cooper and Lammy are for the chop.

The simplest and least disruptive is;
Rayner -> Deputy PM replacing Lammy (but Burnham first see below)
Miliband -> COE replacing Reeves
Streeting -> Energy replacing Miliband
Starmer -> Foreign Sec replacing Cooper.
Everyone else stays in place pro temp.

But a first step could be Burnham -> deputy PM replacing Lammy with Starmer staying in place for a few months to provide a managed handover.
This would a Blair/Brown type of relationship with an agreed timetable to minimise disruption.

The alternative is a nasty civil war with senior ministers taking sides.
I think Burnham, being a friendly accommodating chap, will seek to persuade Starmer to take the least disruptive route, and be rewarded with the role of Foreign Secretary - which I think he enjoys most and most suits him.

Check back here later to see what actually happens.

If Burnham is ruthless enough to be a good prime minister, he should betray Miliband and send him to the backbenches. He doesn't need to repeat Blair's mistake of having a scheming backseat driver in Number 11 who thinks he would make a better PM.

Ed Miliband has explicitly stated that he does not want to become Prime Minister or lead the Labour Party again.

Addressing rumors that he might harbor desires to return to the party's helm, Miliband stated:
"I had the best inoculation technique against wanting to be leader of the Labour Party, which is that I was leader of the Labour Party."

He further solidified his refusal to seek a political comeback in the top role by adding, "Definitely not, being a Donald Trump, coming back for more.

I don't think I believe him, but in any case, not wanting the job himself doesn't preclude him from thinking that he'd be better at it or being a disruptive presence.

The other reason for not wanting to be Prime Minister is Ed Miliband grew up politically under New Labour where Gordon Brown effectively ran domestic policy from the Treasury while Tony Blair dealt with world leaders. For a politician with no real interest in foreign affairs, Chancellor and de factor home PM might well look the better job.

Lord almighty, I kinda agree with Aaron Bastani

Why did the Tories die?

Partly because they spent 14 years trying to destroy anyone who, sociologically speaking, might vote for them in the future.

That’s right. They purposefully tried to stop the re-production of the middle class.



https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/2067666479319793932

The £100k gets too much emphasis given how few people earn that . Student loans and Stamp Duty are the big ones. The fetishisation of buy-to-let too, and the resultant squeeze on first time buyers.

You could stretch to vibes around renewables too - my generation has lived through Ukraine and Iran, and will bear the cost of climate change.