Best Of
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
I'm not sure that's true.Good idea?Nope. Ultimately, money's fungible. Need to stop the addiction(s) otherwise this is pointless.
"Tories to stop criminals spending benefits on alcohol
Pre-loaded ‘ration cards’ will prevent those with convictions linked to drink, gambling or drugs from funding their habits" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/31/tories-to-stop-criminals-spending-benefits-on-alcohol/
Also a slippery slope to spending money on "approved" things which is just not a sensible way of dealing with charity/benefits.
Nobody is more aware of the laziness and corruption of the lower classes than me, but empirically, the proposal could show positive results.
In America, government assistance through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP/aka food stamps) is doled out in roughly the way that the Conservatives are proposing, and studies generally show low, usually very low, levels of abuse, at any rate for a government program.
For example, this study from the University of Chicago Becker Friedman Institute found that cash assistance (like SSI) caused a 20-30% increase in emergency department visits for drug and alcohol use. By contrast, SNAP benefits, which are doled out electronically did not result in any increase in substance-related hospital visits.
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Paternalistic-Social-Assistance-Evidence-and-Implications-from-Cash-vs.-In-Kind-Transfers.pdf
And again a National Center for Biotechnology Information study claimed that rather than funding drug or alcohol habits, the expansion of SNAP and the removal of drug-related eligibility bans actually correlate with reduced rates of substance use disorders and improved access to addiction treatments.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7779750/
Finally, according to the Brookings Institution, the majority of SNAP dollars are spent on staple goods, with the overall spending patterns of recipients closely mirroring those of non-recipients.
So rather than making assumptions about the habits of the great unwashed, it's generally better to look at what actually happens.
And the evidence is that this is a policy that could conceivably work, depending on how it's implemented.
Fishing
4
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
We already have a meaningful dent in house prices, especially in London - the median price is down 20% in real terms since the 2021 peak, which itself had hardly shifted from the 2017 peak.The lump of labour fallacy is irrelevant. Changes in supply still affect prices in the short term even if there isn't a fixed level of demand.No, it is not.Mass deportation is arguably a lefty economic policy that directly benefits them.Pretty clear reason as to why a Reform's coalition will quickly fall apart once in power. Can't please both WWC who want lefty economic policies and ex-Tories living in the Shires who want spending cuts and lower taxes.It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.If you are far left economically then voting for Tice, Yosef and co is a bloody stretch.
The plates are shifting.
They want Dubai on Thames with flat rate, very low tax and fuck all else.
Lump of labour is a fallacy.
That applies just as much to you as it does anyone claiming we need immigration.
I'm not on board the mass deportation train. I'd like to see the population decreasing, but to do that, I think it would be sufficient to just make it virtually impossible to come to the UK as a foreign national, and let natural wastage do the rest.
However if we did do mass deportations, it's not just the labour market that's impacted. For example, if we were to deport a couple of million people that might actually be enough to put a meaningful dent into house prices and rents. That's much more in the interest of tenants and people near the bottom of the housing ladder than the well healed property owning classes.
One current interesting phenomenon is that very few have noticed.
MattW
1
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.That isn't really true, 51% of Reform voters think the government taxes too much and spends too much on public services and 60% think welfare benefits are too generous.
The plates are shifting.
Even if not as high as the 89% who think migrants coming to the United Kingdom across the English Channel should all be immediately removed from the United Kingdom and prevented from ever returning. The 77% who back restoration of the death penalty for some crimes, the 78% who think multiculturalism has made Britain worse and the 69% who think people in Britain should not be legally able to change their gender
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/49887-what-do-reform-uk-voters-believe
HYUFD
1
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
If only there were a convenient label, ideally between three and five letters long, to describe a party that is both nationalist and socialist.It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.Not the leadership though, being the ex-Tory greatest hits.
The plates are shifting.Its going to be an absolute car crash if they gain power. A cabinet of Nigel, the ex Tories and perhaps a handful of arrogant business types. A mix of MPs that will include economic left, Singapore-on-Thames, ethno-nationalist blocks plus a batch of narcissists. A manifesto that won't be deliverable.It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.Not the leadership though, being the ex-Tory greatest hits.
The plates are shifting.
Chief Whip is going to be a job to avoid.
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.
The plates are shifting.
The plates are shifting.
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
I appear to have made friends with a mouse. He and I have been at odds for a couple of weeks as he insists on passing my sight line whilst I am sitting in the garden at night.he is gradually understanding that I won’t kill him brutally and is getting more bold. He is very sweet, reminds me of one of my old dogs, obviously smaller, but good luck to him, he goes about his business and isn’t a pest. So far. I have named him potato after one of my niece’s favourite cartoon characters.
I’m sure there is something about politics and life there somewhere. Or not.
I’m sure there is something about politics and life there somewhere. Or not.
boulay
3
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
In the US, there are SNAP benefits (formerly known as food stamps), with exactly the same goal: only allow poor people to buy necessities.Good idea?A couple of problems, a) they will just shoplift the booze (until we get shoplifting under control everything nothing is going to work) and b) you just get a black market in people selling their ration card for cash.
"Tories to stop criminals spending benefits on alcohol
Pre-loaded ‘ration cards’ will prevent those with convictions linked to drink, gambling or drugs from funding their habits" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/31/tories-to-stop-criminals-spending-benefits-on-alcohol/
And there is -in consequence- a large black market in SNAP benefits.
rcs1000
3
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
A big upset in the first round of the Columbian elections, with the 'far right' candidate coming first with 44%.
https://x.com/business/status/2061207129097130090
Conservative attorney Abelardo de la Espriella surged to a surprise early lead in Colombia’s presidential vote, outperforming expectations in the closely watched election.
https://x.com/business/status/2061207129097130090
Conservative attorney Abelardo de la Espriella surged to a surprise early lead in Colombia’s presidential vote, outperforming expectations in the closely watched election.
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
Famous last words, but it can't be more of a car crash than the current lot, who seem hell bent on establishing just how much ruin there is in a country.It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.Not the leadership though, being the ex-Tory greatest hits.
The plates are shifting.Its going to be an absolute car crash if they gain power. A cabinet of Nigel, the ex Tories and perhaps a handful of arrogant business types. A mix of MPs that will include economic left, Singapore-on-Thames, ethno-nationalist blocks plus a batch of narcissists. A manifesto that won't be deliverable.It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.Not the leadership though, being the ex-Tory greatest hits.
The plates are shifting.
Chief Whip is going to be a job to avoid.
Frankly, improving on the previous Tory administration isn't a much high bar to pass either, that was pretty diabolical.
They all agree on pretty much zero immigration, so that should be sorted fairly quickly. It will be tax and spending decisions that have the potential to be a bit more fun.
1
Re: As many union members support Reform as Labour – politicalbetting.com
The trouble is that Labour activists don't like the people that the party is supposed to represent.The reaction on here when I suggested that Laboir policy advisers in Westminster would be getting their ideas in a trendy wine bar in Hackney was pretty telling tbh. I think Labour is a London dominated party that can't see beyond the activist base of 25-40 year old mostly white women graduates. It's why they fear the Greens so much more than Reform and any suggestion that actually most of the country thinks immigration has gone too far is met with scorn.
MaxPB
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