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Re: It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for Farage – politicalbetting.com

Reform, Tory and LD vote shares look to have stabilised.
Labour is still losing share to the Greens.
Re: It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for Farage – politicalbetting.com
There really aren't 'children in poverty' in the UK.Interesting to see applause on QT for the comment we spend so much time debating fewer than 40,000 people arriving on small boats versus children in poverty.Open to other options. Extra taxes on migrants is the only other option I’ve seen suggestedKick them all out? As I presume you back? Hence you are voting for FarageSo there are fewer migrants in the uk than in 2010 ? Or are UK migrant numbers still increasing ?Net migration is already falling due to the tighter visa wage requirements Sunak and Cleverly brought in.So Reform confirm they would deport even immigrants with indefinite leave to remain, a pretty vile policy.Ok so what is your plan to solve the Tory immigrant crisis ? “ Whoops we ‘accidentally’ let 3 million people in can’t do anything now lol” is not an answer
Given most of their voters and MPs are ex Tories not a great tactic from Farage to dismiss them either
This country is sick of soft open borders pro immigration wets
The target should be negative net migrants vs 2010 numbers
It doesn't mean you need to go full BNP as well
What is the alternative plan to reduce the number of migrants in the UK ? Not reduce the RATE of increase but reduce them full stop. No one else seems to have one
We need a one off migrant policy reset back to sanity
Perhaps finally we're getting our priorities right.
Omnium
3
Re: It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for Farage – politicalbetting.com
Who is going to take Labour seriously after their Ming Vase strategy of no rises in Income Tax?I think the main problem is that they said one thing - "net migration in the tens of thousands" - and did another.If you want to know why the Conservative party are at their lowest point ever, this is it.Net migration is already falling due to the tighter visa wage requirements Sunak and Cleverly brought in.So Reform confirm they would deport even immigrants with indefinite leave to remain, a pretty vile policy.Ok so what is your plan to solve the Tory immigrant crisis ? “ Whoops we ‘accidentally’ let 3 million people in can’t do anything now lol” is not an answer
Given most of their voters and MPs are ex Tories not a great tactic from Farage to dismiss them either
This country is sick of soft open borders pro immigration wets
The target should be negative net migrants vs 2010 numbers
It doesn't mean you need to go full BNP as well
You are divided between people who think immigration is the root of all our problems and those that are broadly content with most of it, bar the boats and hotels. So your policies vary week to week, your messaging is unclear and confusing, and you lose the trust and respect of both groups.
Make your mind up and stick with it. Don't flirt with the other group whichever path you take.
It hardly matters what they say on the subject for at least a decade. Who is going to take them seriously again?
They are more likely to forget the Tories failings 5+ years on - whereas Labour's will be far more fresh in the mind.
The Tories will come back. As the natural choice to replace Labour in Government. Maybe. Particualarly if Farage has a health/legal issue that kills Brand Reform.
Re: It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for Farage – politicalbetting.com
Interesting to see applause on QT for the comment we spend so much time debating fewer than 40,000 people arriving on small boats versus children in poverty.Open to other options. Extra taxes on migrants is the only other option I’ve seen suggestedKick them all out? As I presume you back? Hence you are voting for FarageSo there are fewer migrants in the uk than in 2010 ? Or are UK migrant numbers still increasing ?Net migration is already falling due to the tighter visa wage requirements Sunak and Cleverly brought in.So Reform confirm they would deport even immigrants with indefinite leave to remain, a pretty vile policy.Ok so what is your plan to solve the Tory immigrant crisis ? “ Whoops we ‘accidentally’ let 3 million people in can’t do anything now lol” is not an answer
Given most of their voters and MPs are ex Tories not a great tactic from Farage to dismiss them either
This country is sick of soft open borders pro immigration wets
The target should be negative net migrants vs 2010 numbers
It doesn't mean you need to go full BNP as well
What is the alternative plan to reduce the number of migrants in the UK ? Not reduce the RATE of increase but reduce them full stop. No one else seems to have one
We need a one off migrant policy reset back to sanity
Perhaps finally we're getting our priorities right.
2
Re: It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for Farage – politicalbetting.com
I don't know - Labour has sometimes shot off to the left in response to losing, and some of the Labour members a bit too sure of their ideology to take seriously. Certainly a lot of the Tory members I've met have been bonkers, borderline nazi or both. But when parties succeed they usually seem to have a broad base of moderate support behind them, and a leadership that is able to take the members with them. If parties believe in democracy they ought to show that confidence in how they run their own internal affairs.Not a position that hstorically has had a much success in any party. Generally the membership come up with the most stupid, election losing, policies.One problem the Tories have is that their policy is whatever the leader says it is. So if the leader is inconsistent, or unclear, or Boris Johnson, it's very difficult for spokesmen to know what today's policy is.Firewalled so I can't read it. Regardless it is different to what her spokesman said 9 days ago and what others in the shadow cabinet have been saying."Kemi Badenoch said that the rising Tory star Katie Lam “imprecisely” explained Conservative immigration policy, but admitted that the position needed to be more “coherent”.They better make their mind up and get some consistency if that is true and they want that message to be heard. This is from 9 days ago. if you receive benefits you lose ILR. Not sure how that is different to Reforms you need a job to keep ILR and won't get benefits.No. That is PRECISELY the point, the Tories are not proposing to deport immigrants with indefinite leave to remain Badenoch and Philp have confirmed, while Reform still are. Hence Farage's 'Never Trust a Tory' lineSo Reform confirm they would deport even immigrants with indefinite leave to remain, a pretty vile policy.Isn't that, err, Tory policy as well?
Given most of their voters and MPs are ex Tories not a great tactic from Farage to dismiss them either
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/22/deporting-legally-settled-people-broadly-in-line-conservative-policy-kemi-badenoch
Asked about Lam’s comments, Badenoch’s spokesperson said some had been “pulled out of context”. He said: “She said there are a large number of people who came to this country legally but shouldn’t have been able to do so. The leader of the opposition agrees with that.”
Highlighting the party’s plan to strip ILR from people who receive benefits, who commit a crime or whose income falls below £38,700 for six months or longer, he said: “I think that’s broadly in line with what Katie said and that is the Conservative party policy.”
The Conservative leader denied that the party would deport migrants who have already been granted indefinite leave to remain (ILR), which allows foreign nationals to live, work and study in the UK permanently. She insisted that the party “doesn’t believe in making things retrospective”.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/kemi-badenoch-tory-katie-lam-settled-status-immigration-f2568gwsr?msockid=2d4ff4e9b7de61532b13e0ecb6e66004
It is good if Badenoch has changed the policy and recognises the need to be more coherent. Part of that is sacking Lam.
One of many reasons why I would never vote for the Tories - in a democracy, how much faith can you have in a party that doesn't even decide its own policy democratically within its membership?
And ultimately if members keep wanting to vote for bonkers policies and never win, surely that's up to them? Another party will present a sensible set of policies and prevail. (At least, that used to be the case... Reform will test that theory).
I can't see the point of being a member of a party without a having a way to influence policy directly.
PJH
1
Re: It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for Farage – politicalbetting.com
Badenoch is the only choice for the conservatives going forward and certainly she will be leader in May 26If you are a Conservative holding down one of the seats up for election in May 2026, you must be wondering what can be done to stop the headlong rush to Reform. Some are arguing you have to wait until the debacle hits before Kemi is toast but why wait? A new leader 6 months out would give their local councillors something to talk about positively and take the battle to Reform."Kemi Badenoch said that the rising Tory star Katie Lam “imprecisely” explained Conservative immigration policy, but admitted that the position needed to be more “coherent”.They better make their mind up and get some consistency if that is true and they want that message to be heard. This is from 9 days ago. if you receive benefits you lose ILR. Not sure how that is different to Reforms you need a job to keep ILR and won't get benefits.No. That is PRECISELY the point, the Tories are not proposing to deport immigrants with indefinite leave to remain Badenoch and Philp have confirmed, while Reform still are. Hence Farage's 'Never Trust a Tory' lineSo Reform confirm they would deport even immigrants with indefinite leave to remain, a pretty vile policy.Isn't that, err, Tory policy as well?
Given most of their voters and MPs are ex Tories not a great tactic from Farage to dismiss them either
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/22/deporting-legally-settled-people-broadly-in-line-conservative-policy-kemi-badenoch
Asked about Lam’s comments, Badenoch’s spokesperson said some had been “pulled out of context”. He said: “She said there are a large number of people who came to this country legally but shouldn’t have been able to do so. The leader of the opposition agrees with that.”
Highlighting the party’s plan to strip ILR from people who receive benefits, who commit a crime or whose income falls below £38,700 for six months or longer, he said: “I think that’s broadly in line with what Katie said and that is the Conservative party policy.”
The Conservative leader denied that the party would deport migrants who have already been granted indefinite leave to remain (ILR), which allows foreign nationals to live, work and study in the UK permanently. She insisted that the party “doesn’t believe in making things retrospective”.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/kemi-badenoch-tory-katie-lam-settled-status-immigration-f2568gwsr?msockid=2d4ff4e9b7de61532b13e0ecb6e66004
Kemi's time is up in November so let's see if she can make it to Xmas.
Jenrick and Lam are not remotely the answer, and I agree with @HYUFD that Cleverly may succeed her next Summer, though that is not certain by any means
I would suggest Starmer is likely to be under even more pressure next Spring
Re: It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for Farage – politicalbetting.com
When the measure is relative poverty (i.e. wrt median income or some such) then the poor are always with us as the Good Book sayThere really aren't 'children in poverty' in the UK.Interesting to see applause on QT for the comment we spend so much time debating fewer than 40,000 people arriving on small boats versus children in poverty.Open to other options. Extra taxes on migrants is the only other option I’ve seen suggestedKick them all out? As I presume you back? Hence you are voting for FarageSo there are fewer migrants in the uk than in 2010 ? Or are UK migrant numbers still increasing ?Net migration is already falling due to the tighter visa wage requirements Sunak and Cleverly brought in.So Reform confirm they would deport even immigrants with indefinite leave to remain, a pretty vile policy.Ok so what is your plan to solve the Tory immigrant crisis ? “ Whoops we ‘accidentally’ let 3 million people in can’t do anything now lol” is not an answer
Given most of their voters and MPs are ex Tories not a great tactic from Farage to dismiss them either
This country is sick of soft open borders pro immigration wets
The target should be negative net migrants vs 2010 numbers
It doesn't mean you need to go full BNP as well
What is the alternative plan to reduce the number of migrants in the UK ? Not reduce the RATE of increase but reduce them full stop. No one else seems to have one
We need a one off migrant policy reset back to sanity
Perhaps finally we're getting our priorities right.
geoffw
2
Re: It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for Farage – politicalbetting.com
Tim Shipman has piece in this weekend's Speccie looking at Badenoch leadership.Badenoch is the only choice for the conservatives going forward and certainly she will be leader in May 26If you are a Conservative holding down one of the seats up for election in May 2026, you must be wondering what can be done to stop the headlong rush to Reform. Some are arguing you have to wait until the debacle hits before Kemi is toast but why wait? A new leader 6 months out would give their local councillors something to talk about positively and take the battle to Reform."Kemi Badenoch said that the rising Tory star Katie Lam “imprecisely” explained Conservative immigration policy, but admitted that the position needed to be more “coherent”.They better make their mind up and get some consistency if that is true and they want that message to be heard. This is from 9 days ago. if you receive benefits you lose ILR. Not sure how that is different to Reforms you need a job to keep ILR and won't get benefits.No. That is PRECISELY the point, the Tories are not proposing to deport immigrants with indefinite leave to remain Badenoch and Philp have confirmed, while Reform still are. Hence Farage's 'Never Trust a Tory' lineSo Reform confirm they would deport even immigrants with indefinite leave to remain, a pretty vile policy.Isn't that, err, Tory policy as well?
Given most of their voters and MPs are ex Tories not a great tactic from Farage to dismiss them either
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/22/deporting-legally-settled-people-broadly-in-line-conservative-policy-kemi-badenoch
Asked about Lam’s comments, Badenoch’s spokesperson said some had been “pulled out of context”. He said: “She said there are a large number of people who came to this country legally but shouldn’t have been able to do so. The leader of the opposition agrees with that.”
Highlighting the party’s plan to strip ILR from people who receive benefits, who commit a crime or whose income falls below £38,700 for six months or longer, he said: “I think that’s broadly in line with what Katie said and that is the Conservative party policy.”
The Conservative leader denied that the party would deport migrants who have already been granted indefinite leave to remain (ILR), which allows foreign nationals to live, work and study in the UK permanently. She insisted that the party “doesn’t believe in making things retrospective”.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/kemi-badenoch-tory-katie-lam-settled-status-immigration-f2568gwsr?msockid=2d4ff4e9b7de61532b13e0ecb6e66004
Kemi's time is up in November so let's see if she can make it to Xmas.
Jenrick and Lam are not remotely the answer, and I agree with @HYUFD that Cleverly may succeed her next Summer, though that is not certain by any means
I would suggest Starmer is likely to be under even more pressure next Spring
General tone: she has learnt a lot in recent months and the sinking ship is beginning to turn. Lot of backroom stuff that has been changed that is just starting to bear fruit. Quite a few Aussie election strategists and gurus have quietly been brought on board.
They do things differently there...
Re: It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for Farage – politicalbetting.com
The future's bright and the future isn't orange.Wouldn't it be nice to have a single day where Donald Trump wasn't mentioned...If only Donald Trump had never gone full retard...Everybody knows you never go full Caracas....Donald "No More Wars" Trump is about to invade Venezuela.He's gone completely Caracas at last.
Guaranteed peace prize now...
Omnium
1
Re: It’s a bold strategy, let’s see if it pays off for Farage – politicalbetting.com
Whilst I wouldn't hang and gibbet them, I'm not sure that daubing Stonehenge should be a penalty free act.
Omnium
1

