Best Of

It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.

The plates are shifting.

If you are far left economically then voting for Tice, Yosef and co is a bloody stretch.

They want Dubai on Thames with flat rate, very low tax and fuck all else.

Pretty clear reason as to why a Reform's coalition will quickly fall apart once in power. Can't please both WWC who want lefty economic policies and ex-Tories living in the Shires who want spending cuts and lower taxes.

Mass deportation is arguably a lefty economic policy that directly benefits them.

No, it is not.

Lump of labour is a fallacy.

That applies just as much to you as it does anyone claiming we need immigration.

The lump of labour fallacy is irrelevant. Changes in supply still affect prices in the short term even if there isn't a fixed level of demand.

I'm not on board the mass deportation train. I'd like to see the population decreasing, but to do that, I think it would be sufficient to just make it virtually impossible to come to the UK as a foreign national, and let natural wastage do the rest.

However if we did do mass deportations, it's not just the labour market that's impacted. For example, if we were to deport a couple of million people that might actually be enough to put a meaningful dent into house prices and rents. That's much more in the interest of tenants and people near the bottom of the housing ladder than the well healed property owning classes.

We already have a meaningful dent in house prices, especially in London - the median price is down 20% in real terms since the 2021 peak, which itself had hardly shifted from the 2017 peak.

One current interesting phenomenon is that very few have noticed.

Because that is not meaningful.

A peak to not quite so peak fall of 20% in real terms is pretty meaningless in fact.

It would take an approximately 70% to 80% fall from here in real terms to get a meaningful reduction back to rational price to income ratios that existed in the 90s.

A 70-80% fall happening very quickly would also generate problems. A 20% fall is in the right direction and a quarter of the way there, while not being too sudden a change, so I don’t see why you’re being so sniffy about it.

You’d ideally want to see somewhere around 4-5% fall per year in money terms, such that someone on a 25y repayment mortgage is not going to encounter negative equity.

There’s still a lot of pent-up demand outside London though, a lot of housebuilding and/or population reduction required before prices fall significantly.

4-5% falls in cash terms would cause a lot of negative equity.

1-2% would be the most we could sensibly take.

High LTV mortgages are at their highest level since the GFC, at (best number I an find) about 8% of the market in 2025 Q4.

Not only that. With the high level of deflation who’d be buying ? The market would slow down further.

Those wanting to get on the ladder would simply hold off waiting for further falls.

Also the consequential knock on effect to trades and tradesmen would see a decline in work as new movers often do work to their new homes. Our new neighbour is.

As always, be careful what people wish for.

The problems all stem from treating a house as primarily an investment product, rather than simply somewhere to live.

People would still buy houses even if they don’t go up in value. Banks would be more careful about loan to value calculations though, you’d probably need at least 10% deposit.

I agree. The trouble is that successive Governments over the last 30 years screwed the pension system so badly that people were looking around for alternative means to pay for their retirement.

For me a house is a home not an investment but I understand entirely why others have been forced to look at it in a different way. .

It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.

The plates are shifting.

If you are far left economically then voting for Tice, Yosef and co is a bloody stretch.

They want Dubai on Thames with flat rate, very low tax and fuck all else.

Pretty clear reason as to why a Reform's coalition will quickly fall apart once in power. Can't please both WWC who want lefty economic policies and ex-Tories living in the Shires who want spending cuts and lower taxes.

Mass deportation is arguably a lefty economic policy that directly benefits them.

No, it is not.

Lump of labour is a fallacy.

That applies just as much to you as it does anyone claiming we need immigration.

The lump of labour fallacy is irrelevant. Changes in supply still affect prices in the short term even if there isn't a fixed level of demand.

I'm not on board the mass deportation train. I'd like to see the population decreasing, but to do that, I think it would be sufficient to just make it virtually impossible to come to the UK as a foreign national, and let natural wastage do the rest.

However if we did do mass deportations, it's not just the labour market that's impacted. For example, if we were to deport a couple of million people that might actually be enough to put a meaningful dent into house prices and rents. That's much more in the interest of tenants and people near the bottom of the housing ladder than the well healed property owning classes.

We already have a meaningful dent in house prices, especially in London - the median price is down 20% in real terms since the 2021 peak, which itself had hardly shifted from the 2017 peak.

One current interesting phenomenon is that very few have noticed.

Because that is not meaningful.

A peak to not quite so peak fall of 20% in real terms is pretty meaningless in fact.

It would take an approximately 70% to 80% fall from here in real terms to get a meaningful reduction back to rational price to income ratios that existed in the 90s.

A 70-80% fall happening very quickly would also generate problems. A 20% fall is in the right direction and a quarter of the way there, while not being too sudden a change, so I don’t see why you’re being so sniffy about it.

You’d ideally want to see somewhere around 4-5% fall per year in money terms, such that someone on a 25y repayment mortgage is not going to encounter negative equity.

There’s still a lot of pent-up demand outside London though, a lot of housebuilding and/or population reduction required before prices fall significantly.

4-5% falls in cash terms would cause a lot of negative equity.

1-2% would be the most we could sensibly take.

High LTV mortgages are at their highest level since the GFC, at (best number I an find) about 8% of the market in 2025 Q4.

Not only that. With the high level of deflation who’d be buying ? The market would slow down further.

Those wanting to get on the ladder would simply hold off waiting for further falls.

Also the consequential knock on effect to trades and tradesmen would see a decline in work as new movers often do work to their new homes. Our new neighbour is.

As always, be careful what people wish for.

Yes, a quick market crash would possibly do less damage than an extended period of predictable deflation.

It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.

The plates are shifting.

Not the leadership though, being the ex-Tory greatest hits.

It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.

The plates are shifting.

Not the leadership though, being the ex-Tory greatest hits.

Its going to be an absolute car crash if they gain power. A cabinet of Nigel, the ex Tories and perhaps a handful of arrogant business types. A mix of MPs that will include economic left, Singapore-on-Thames, ethno-nationalist blocks plus a batch of narcissists. A manifesto that won't be deliverable.

Chief Whip is going to be a job to avoid.

Famous last words, but it can't be more of a car crash than the current lot, who seem hell bent on establishing just how much ruin there is in a country.

Frankly, improving on the previous Tory administration isn't a much high bar to pass either, that was pretty diabolical.

They all agree on pretty much zero immigration, so that should be sorted fairly quickly. It will be tax and spending decisions that have the potential to be a bit more fun.

Zero immigration! Unpack this one for me. Based on ONS data

* Domestic population is in decline with more deaths than births
* 500K of domestic population leaving each year.
* With zero immigration (forecast at 700K) then population shrinks very quicky
* Domestic population is both getting older and sicker
* Potential tax base from Domestic population is shrinking fast to provide benefits (including pensions) for the old and the sick.

The dead hand of demographics is a heavy influence in the background so how do you satisfy the average Reform/Restore voter?

The population shrinking is a feature, not a bug. It takes a lot of pressure off infrastructure, which in turn releases a loads of cash (and labour) that's currently involved in building more.

House building is an obvious example - if the population is falling, we can stop building new houses, and the prices of existing houses will fall. This releases a great load of labour to do other things (maybe some of it will be caring for the elderly) and will make most working people better off because far less of their income is going on housing.

Same with other infrastructure. Why are we spending over £100 billion on HS2? Because the existing railway is at capacity. As the population drops, demand will drop, and the existing capacity will become sufficient again.

Repeat for energy infrastructure - the smaller the population, the lower the peak demand, the less capacity we have to pay for to be able to cover demand during a week of cold still weather in winter.

It's worth noting that the 500k PA of domestic population people leaving has a big component who were previously immigrants to the UK, and are now going home again. Once there is no new immigration, that number will trend down pretty fast, I suspect in five years it will be more like 100k than 500k.

So probably the population will drop 3-4 million quite quickly, and then the rate of shrinkage will slow quite considerably. Once we've lost 10-15 million, and the population is back down to around the 55 million our current infrastructure can sensibly support, there is nothing stopping a future government cracking the immigration tap open again to hold the population steady.

That’s fine and all but I thought the answer to our problems was growth? The reason why Britain is all but ungovernable is because everyone wants contradictory things.

We need growth per capita.

Migration is a side-story to that. Skilled migration can help, but we need to start measuring per capita growth as the headline and not absolute figures.

I’ve been banned from the UK. I tried to get on a flight to London to attend SXSW London and give a speech at Oxford. I’ve been banned for criticizing Israel. Are we free anymore? This is oppression of Western citizens by our own governments on behalf of a different country!

https://x.com/cenkuygur/status/2061205610327408773?s=20

Labour in Authoritarianism shock.

He's a odd duck, though. Conservative in his youth. Also uncle of Hasan Piker, whose presence in the country is also banned.

He isn't my cup of tea, but as far as I know he stays within the lines* compared Hasan Piker who spews some really nasty stuff, but the whole banning people, I would hope it is reserved for people who terrorists, terrorist recruitors etc. He is coming to rant, I mean debtae, at the Oxford Union, I would feel sorry for the students as he isn't a good debater.

* He must do as he he has stayed on YouTube for donkeys years including ability to make money and live stream. They aren't as tolerant as Twitch or Kick particularly if you get big, you don't even need to say anything bad on YouTube itself to at get demonetarised, saying racist stuff outside of YouTube can still get YouTube to decide you can't have get ad revenue.

The more mental Zionist types are saying it’s impossible that Uygur has been banned for criticising Israel because Shabs is Home Secretary. Either the ungrateful sods have not been following her journey to the heart of government, or they‘re reflexively bullshitting cos that’s what they do.

The fact Hasan and Cenk say they were banned from entry into the UK “at the behest of Israel” is hilarious considering this 👇🏽 is who banned from entering the UK

https://x.com/koshercockney/status/2061234596411318398?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

‘Ultra-strength’ cocaine hits UK streets as deaths surge to record high
Exclusive: Cocaine deaths have hit record levels, with more than 1,000 people dying last year.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/cocaine-drugs-uk-deaths-police-south-america-b2975580.html

Good news for coked-up benefits card users!!

It's all a bit Daily Express from the Independent.

Their latest data for their Schlock ! Horror ! headline for their DEAL WITH IT NOW !!! crisis is from 2024, and their analysed samples for the British Population are three samples taken from the toilets at the Cheltenham Festival.

Can anyone explain how on May 31st 2026, 2024 was "last year"?

Their graph shows that the % of the population taking cocaine in 2024 was the lowest in their entire history going back to 2015 (no data for pandemic).



They have a strong point about high concentration cocaine, and a possible link to a significant increase in resultant deaths, but can tell us nothing about 2025 and 2026.

I do not think "two out of three" means there were only three samples, although I guess it could do.

From the article, they did 3 samples with the most detailed analysis:

At Cheltenham on Gold Cup day in March, The Independent used test wipes on surfaces in toilets to find traces of cocaine, before collecting a dozen samples which were sent for testing at the Kingston Analytical Services Toxicology (KAST) at Kingston University.

Initial tests detected cocaine in almost every sample. Three were then sent for nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) testing, which revealed that two, including one taken from a baby changing facility at the Best Mate Enclosure, had 85 per cent purity.

Dr Arijac Durrant, a postdoctoral researcher at the university who did the testing, told The Independent: “Here are two samples of high-quality cocaine which is above what we usually see at street level. I’m not a medical expert, but I would suggest a heightened risk of an overdose for someone taking this drug who is used to taking a lower purity substance.

I think the Indy has 3 samples, and everything else is published data from at the latest 2024.

The convincing thing imo is the constant increase in deaths from 2015 to 2024 (from just under 400 to just over 1200).

‘Ultra-strength’ cocaine hits UK streets as deaths surge to record high
Exclusive: Cocaine deaths have hit record levels, with more than 1,000 people dying last year.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/cocaine-drugs-uk-deaths-police-south-america-b2975580.html

Good news for coked-up benefits card users!!

• The purity of cocaine has risen from 32 per cent 13 years ago to more than 80 per cent today
  
• Shocking figures show cocaine-related deaths in England and Wales have reached a record high, claiming 1,279 lives in 2024
  
• The UK had the largest cocaine consumer rate in Europe in 2023, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
  
• There has been a 40 per cent cut in real-time spending on adult drug and alcohol services from 2014 to 2022
  
• The latest government figures from wastewater showed consumption of the drug in England had risen by a quarter in the past five years

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/cocaine-drugs-uk-deaths-police-south-america-b2975580.html

Another British success story! A fine example of targeted government cuts raising GDP.

Long-term effects are cardiovascular damage and cerebral atrophy, probably a net negative for NHS and GDP.

It has been pointed out here before that the average Reform supporter is far-right socially but far-left economically.

The plates are shifting.

If you are far left economically then voting for Tice, Yosef and co is a bloody stretch.

They want Dubai on Thames with flat rate, very low tax and fuck all else.

Pretty clear reason as to why a Reform's coalition will quickly fall apart once in power. Can't please both WWC who want lefty economic policies and ex-Tories living in the Shires who want spending cuts and lower taxes.

Mass deportation is arguably a lefty economic policy that directly benefits them.

No, it is not.

Lump of labour is a fallacy.

That applies just as much to you as it does anyone claiming we need immigration.

The lump of labour fallacy is irrelevant. Changes in supply still affect prices in the short term even if there isn't a fixed level of demand.

I'm not on board the mass deportation train. I'd like to see the population decreasing, but to do that, I think it would be sufficient to just make it virtually impossible to come to the UK as a foreign national, and let natural wastage do the rest.

However if we did do mass deportations, it's not just the labour market that's impacted. For example, if we were to deport a couple of million people that might actually be enough to put a meaningful dent into house prices and rents. That's much more in the interest of tenants and people near the bottom of the housing ladder than the well healed property owning classes.

We already have a meaningful dent in house prices, especially in London - the median price is down 20% in real terms since the 2021 peak, which itself had hardly shifted from the 2017 peak.

One current interesting phenomenon is that very few have noticed.

Because that is not meaningful.

A peak to not quite so peak fall of 20% in real terms is pretty meaningless in fact.

It would take an approximately 70% to 80% fall from here in real terms to get a meaningful reduction back to rational price to income ratios that existed in the 90s.

A 70-80% fall happening very quickly would also generate problems. A 20% fall is in the right direction and a quarter of the way there, while not being too sudden a change, so I don’t see why you’re being so sniffy about it.

You’d ideally want to see somewhere around 4-5% fall per year in money terms, such that someone on a 25y repayment mortgage is not going to encounter negative equity.

There’s still a lot of pent-up demand outside London though, a lot of housebuilding and/or population reduction required before prices fall significantly.

4-5% falls in cash terms would cause a lot of negative equity.

1-2% would be the most we could sensibly take.

High LTV mortgages are at their highest level since the GFC, at (best number I an find) about 8% of the market in 2025 Q4.

Not only that. With the high level of deflation who’d be buying ? The market would slow down further.

Those wanting to get on the ladder would simply hold off waiting for further falls.

Also the consequential knock on effect to trades and tradesmen would see a decline in work as new movers often do work to their new homes. Our new neighbour is.

As always, be careful what people wish for.

The problems all stem from treating a house as primarily an investment product, rather than simply somewhere to live.

People would still buy houses even if they don’t go up in value. Banks would be more careful about loan to value calculations though, you’d probably need at least 10% deposit.