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All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....

BUT.........................

I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.

Does that tell us anything about the economy?

Does it tell us anything about Brexit, Rog?

I'm not an economist but my thought as AlanB suggests is that the UK is doing well at the moment.

No, it's an indicator that UK interest rates are going to be higher for longer than in the EU because Labour have pushed through a highly inflationary budget.

All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....

BUT.........................

I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.

Does that tell us anything about the economy?

You might have perhaps read about just how stuffed Germany is?

It's just possible that we are living through another generational political shift. The Tories have shat themselves inside out. Labour have been in office for less than 5 months and everyone is sick of them.

Reform are very serious about becoming very serious. Despite the usual "lets all point at the lunatics and fruitcakes" response from the mainstream, their organising is starting to look professional and they are picking up a very large number of members.

And I have to put a word in for my own LibDems. As so many people note, once we dig in we dig in deep. And with the big two in disarray the opportunity is there to keep the momentum going.

Once politicians lose their contact with reality they are finished. The Tories are on planet Zog, Labour are sailing off into the distance not having realised that they aren't taking the country with them. That creates a vacuum, and all kinds of things will get sucked in...

Farage will be 64 come the next election and will have spent most of his time in America sucking up to Trump.

Reform's problem, and it is a big problem, is that they remain less a political party than an ego trip.

Can they replace him? If they can't, and before the next election at that, they could easily die away again as UKIP have.

Of course, they might potentially die away to be replaced with something even worse, but that's a different problem.

Like all political parties built around a charismatic leader, there is the question of apres moi...?

An issue that is especially true for Reform, as it is literally owned by Farage. And all the booze and fags will not have been kind to his longevity.

Farage built it as a vehicle for himself. But after the election has been a significant attempt to professionalise and distribute power. They can't be dismissed as a personality cult any more, they are increasingly well planned, well resourced and serious.

Bad news for the Tories if people become entrenched or actually attached to the Reform brand, they might be difficult to shift. Increasing the pressure to cut deals or ultimately merge.

Afternoon all

Interesting to reflect on turnouts as the story of local Council by-elections since July has been derisory turnouts but the core Conservative vote still turning out.

That vote in and of itself isn't growing but while it's not enough to win elections with 30-40% turnout it is enough when you get down to 15-25% and that's helping the Conservatives in some seats especially when facing the LDs or in other parts of the south.

In 1998, my recollection nationally was turnout in the low 30s. By contrast, in 2021, Surrey had a turnout of 39% in its election.

We also have to factor in Reform and anti-incumbency bias and that won't help the Conservatives who are defending majority control of 18 of the 21 County Councils as well as 7 of the 10 former County authorities which are now Unitaries (Cornwall, Wiltshire and Shropshire being examples).

It was hovering around 40% in Wiltshire in 2021 as well, I would not be surprised to see it drop a bit. Reform will be absolutely critical in such areas, UKIP were nowhere even if they stood by 2021, and I don't think Reform/Brexit even stood much either, if at all (none in Wiltshire). UKIP got some handfuls of seats in some earlier elections across county councils, but did score plenty of second places, it could be significant if Reform make a real go of it.

Reform are starting to make an impact in local council by-elections with wins in East Kent yesterday and performing respectably in Glasgow.

What we don't know is how many candidates they will stand in May and where though we can probably be inituitive about this based on the GE results.

All these polls feel pretty meaningless. Asking people what they think when things are in flux can only remain valid for a few weeks. How can the NHS have improved in a month or anyone miss their £300 fuel allowance when it wouldn't have been paid out yet or notice house prices? They wouldn't so those who dislike Labour complain about VAT on school fees and millionaire farmers or Reeves CV.which wont change anyone's vote ....

BUT.........................

I change money from £s to euros four or five times a year. Usually £10,000 a time. I do it irrespective of the exchange rate that day. Today I've got the best rate for over 15 years.

Does that tell us anything about the economy?

Does it tell us anything about Brexit, Rog?

I'm not an economist but my thought as AlanB suggests is that the UK is doing well at the moment.

No, it's an indicator that UK interest rates are going to be higher for longer than in the EU because Labour have pushed through a highly inflationary budget.

That's at least partly why the dollar has gone up since Nov 5th.

Yup, US interest rate expectations are now much higher than before because Trump policies are inflationary, tariffs and such.