Best Of
Re: An interesting stat – politicalbetting.com
Um, I have done that. I've been in the same conferences/audience three times and I have spoken to him once. True fact, dat.It's good, it's more than good, but the PB ultimate is to run into ... PROFESSOR JOHN CURTICE !!!Jay Powell is like the Taylor Swift of my professional world.The Chairman of the Federal Reserve just got on my train! (This is exciting stuff for an economist working in financial markets).I'm impressed you know him/her by sight. Even if you do work in financial markets.
Palpitations wouldn't cover it.
1
Re: An interesting stat – politicalbetting.com
It’s not really default risk, it’s inflation and FX expectations.Yup, markets are pricing in an implicit guarantee that German and Dutch taxpayers will pay the bill if France looks like defaulting.France is backstopped by the ECB and ultimately Germany. And the Euro Area has lower inflation and hence interest rates. This allows France to be in a worse state than us, fiscally speaking, but enjoy lower bond yields.France is in very serious fiscal trouble and yet it is our gilts that have the 'moron' factor.Has Macron's humiliation been mentioned ?Ssssssssshhh don't summon the WASPIs.
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has told parliament he backs suspending controversial 2023 pension reforms, in the face of crucial votes of no-confidence later this week.
The changes, which raised the retirement age from 62 to 64, were seen as signature reforms in Emmanuel Macron's presidency.
"This autumn I will propose to parliament that we suspend the 2023 pension reform until the [2027] presidential election," Lecornu said to applause from left-wing parties.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crkldd02xg8o
We have plenty of problems in this country but at least people accept a rising state pension age.
TimS
1
Re: An interesting stat – politicalbetting.com
Just over twelve hours until I head off for my first day of work in twelve weeksNo phased return? Terrible employment practice.
I think I might be sore this time tomorrow..
Re: An interesting stat – politicalbetting.com
And he claimed that Reeves is like a rabbit in headlights on growth, not having the faintest idea how to stimulate it. He maintains that she's well-meaning, but doesn't have any idea what she's doing.You don't even need to be in the same postcode to tell that about Reeves.
glw
1
Re: An interesting stat – politicalbetting.com
.
Leon's celebrating in advance another disastrous government he plans to vote for, might yet prove premature.
Long way to go before the next election.New in the Mail.I don't know where to start with this. Emigrate? It would be the K-T event in British politics. I don't know how it would translate into betting odds: go big on Farage in case the poll is right, or go big against Farage in case the poll is wrong. I don't like this...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15191843/Megapoll-Farage-Reform-Commons-majority.html
"How Reform would crush all before them if election was held tomorrow: Explosive megapoll shows Nigel Farage set for the biggest Commons majority ever with Tories reduced to just seven MPs and Labour ministers culled
Nigel Farage is set for the biggest Commons majority in modern political history with the Tories reduced to just seven MPs, according to an explosive megapoll. Reform UK is on course to win 445 seats - with Labour down to 73 MPs if an election was held tomorrow. But tactical voting could block Mr Farage's path to victory, with more than a third of Labour voters saying they would back the Tories to stop Reform. The seat-by-seat MRP poll, shared exclusively with the Daily Mail, was carried out by communications firm PLMR with Electoral Calculus. MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) is widely seen as a more accurate way to predict how many seats each party will win. It forecast the Liberal Democrats are on course to win 42 seats, with the SNP set for 41 and Jeremy Corbyn's Your Party on 13. But the Tories came in sixth place with just seven MPs, narrowly ahead of the Greens on six, and Plaid Cymru on five. The poll of 7,449 British adults took place from September 10 to 18 - before the party conference season."
Seat figures:
Ref 445
Lab 73
LD 42
SNP 41
Your Party 13
Con 7
Grn 6
PC 5
Leon's celebrating in advance another disastrous government he plans to vote for, might yet prove premature.
Nigelb
3
Re: Another parable of UK industry – politicalbetting.com
Pledge 3 - Pseudo PR that only benefits middle of the road NIMBY parties😱😱😱😱Ed Davey needs a stone just to wind up @Taz !The problem with "Broken Britain" hyperbole is it risks becoming self-fulfilling because it rolls the pitch for political extremists and populist charlatans (no names no pack drill). They are the main beneficiaries of this sentiment going mainstream. That's why they work so hard to promote it.I’m wondering if the populist charlatans on the left, the Greens, will invoke the same degree of ire here. 🤔
Pledge 1 - No new developments anywhere
Pledge 2 - Billions for the WASPI women.
Pledge 4 - Abolish tuition fees
Re: An interesting stat – politicalbetting.com
Bye byeNew in the Mail.I don't know where to start with this. Emigrate? It would be the K-T event in British politics. I don't know how it would translate into betting odds: go big on Farage in case the poll is right, or go big against Farage in case the poll is wrong. I don't like this...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15191843/Megapoll-Farage-Reform-Commons-majority.html
"How Reform would crush all before them if election was held tomorrow: Explosive megapoll shows Nigel Farage set for the biggest Commons majority ever with Tories reduced to just seven MPs and Labour ministers culled
Nigel Farage is set for the biggest Commons majority in modern political history with the Tories reduced to just seven MPs, according to an explosive megapoll. Reform UK is on course to win 445 seats - with Labour down to 73 MPs if an election was held tomorrow. But tactical voting could block Mr Farage's path to victory, with more than a third of Labour voters saying they would back the Tories to stop Reform. The seat-by-seat MRP poll, shared exclusively with the Daily Mail, was carried out by communications firm PLMR with Electoral Calculus. MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) is widely seen as a more accurate way to predict how many seats each party will win. It forecast the Liberal Democrats are on course to win 42 seats, with the SNP set for 41 and Jeremy Corbyn's Your Party on 13. But the Tories came in sixth place with just seven MPs, narrowly ahead of the Greens on six, and Plaid Cymru on five. The poll of 7,449 British adults took place from September 10 to 18 - before the party conference season."
Seat figures:
Ref 445
Lab 73
LD 42
SNP 41
Your Party 13
Con 7
Grn 6
PC 5
Leon
1
Re: An interesting stat – politicalbetting.com
PARTY HOST: "Good evening Count Dracula, welcome to our little soiree. Would you like a small aperitif?"
DRACULA: "No, I think mine are just the right size, thank you."
DRACULA: "No, I think mine are just the right size, thank you."
2
Re: An interesting stat – politicalbetting.com
I met a US senator -- who shortly afterwards died in an airplane accident. A few years later, in a different state, I met another US senator -- who shortly afterwards died in an airplane accident.Good news!
I like to think i am not superstitious, but I have to admit that since then I have not sought out meetings with US senators.
(Incidentally, US congressmen and senators die more often in airplance crashes than the general public. Here's a famous, if somewhat dated, example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hale_Boggs )
I've organized you a trip around the US to meet some of our most prominent elected represenatives!
rcs1000
3
Re: An interesting stat – politicalbetting.com
New in the Mail.I don't know where to start with this. Emigrate? It would be the K-T event in British politics. I don't know how it would translate into betting odds: go big on Farage in case the poll is right, or go big against Farage in case the poll is wrong. I don't like this...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15191843/Megapoll-Farage-Reform-Commons-majority.html
"How Reform would crush all before them if election was held tomorrow: Explosive megapoll shows Nigel Farage set for the biggest Commons majority ever with Tories reduced to just seven MPs and Labour ministers culled
Nigel Farage is set for the biggest Commons majority in modern political history with the Tories reduced to just seven MPs, according to an explosive megapoll. Reform UK is on course to win 445 seats - with Labour down to 73 MPs if an election was held tomorrow. But tactical voting could block Mr Farage's path to victory, with more than a third of Labour voters saying they would back the Tories to stop Reform. The seat-by-seat MRP poll, shared exclusively with the Daily Mail, was carried out by communications firm PLMR with Electoral Calculus. MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) is widely seen as a more accurate way to predict how many seats each party will win. It forecast the Liberal Democrats are on course to win 42 seats, with the SNP set for 41 and Jeremy Corbyn's Your Party on 13. But the Tories came in sixth place with just seven MPs, narrowly ahead of the Greens on six, and Plaid Cymru on five. The poll of 7,449 British adults took place from September 10 to 18 - before the party conference season."
Seat figures:
Ref 445
Lab 73
LD 42
SNP 41
Your Party 13
Con 7
Grn 6
PC 5
1
