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KHARG ISLAND

"You have the watches, we have the time" as the Taliban apparently used to say about the US.



Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
·
2h
But Iran has weathered long periods of ultra-low oil exports. Back in 2020-22, Iran endured American "maximum pressure" on its petroleum industry, with exports at times down 90% from today's levels. And Iran didn't buckle then. Thus, it's unlikely to do so now.


Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
·
2h
Unlike the Islamic Republic, Trump doesn’t have the benefit of time. He needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in days or, at most, weeks or oil prices would rally. He doesn’t have months to crank up the pressure on Iran via Kharg to accept a deal. Time favours Tehran.

🧵10/10

https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2035764762294747449

Presumably all the analysts that could have appraised the current goons in the Oval Room of this have been fired.

I suspect Hegseth is going to take the fall for this clusterfuck.

The really interesting one will be whether Rubio also gets the axe in order to try and save the midterms.

He has high hopes of 2028.

Or president of Cuba if that doesn't work out. Or both, if it does.

The Iranians say they didn't fire at Diego Garcia.

The rumour on TwiX is they were fired from an Israeli submarine

Seems a bit improbable to put it mildly. The Israelis do have submarines that can launch short range ballistic missiles but there seems no obvious reason to shoot them at Diego Garcia when given their nature would be very obvious indeed who fired them.

More likely either the Iranians are lying or, disturbing thought, it was the Russians.

And of course, a near certainty that Twitter is talking BS,

Or alternatively, it is the Yanks that are lying. After all the effect of these "missiles" seems to be to rope us into the war, which is exactly what Trump wants...

The Iranian government doesn’t seem to be 100% on message either.

Perfectly possible that the chunk that was in charge of extended range missile development decided to flip their best toy at the Chagos. Use or lose might have been part of that.

This is the best news for Unionists in many a year.

George Galloway U-turns on Scottish independence for 2026 elections

POLITICAL firebrand George Galloway has U-turned on his opposition to Scottish independence, saying the “British state is financially, politically, and morally bankrupt”.

In comments posted on Facebook but delivered as a speech to Workers Party Scotland members, Galloway said he had changed his opinion and “if God spares me, I will campaign and vote for the end of the United Kingdom”.

In the 2021 Holyrood elections, Galloway stood for the “All for Unity” campaign and pledged to “tackle the scourge of separatism”. He said he would vote Conservative in a bid to court Unionist voters, but his campaign group ultimately failed to win any seats...

...The former Labour politician is now standing for Workers Party Scotland in the 2026 Holyrood elections in Glasgow Southside. He is also second on the party’s Glasgow regional list, behind lead candidate Yvonne Ridley.

Ahead of a campaign launch event in Govan on Friday, March 27, Galloway said his party would support a push for a second independence referendum – and that he personally would campaign for a Yes vote.

“We go into the coming elections for Holyrood in May, behind our lead candidate Yvonne Ridley, wholly committed to a second referendum on the issue of Scottish independence,” he said.

“We demand that the votes of all pro-referendum parties in this election be counted as the stated will of the Scottish public. In other words these elections must be explicitly called a referendum on a referendum.”

Galloway went on: “Now the question inevitably arises: if we get the referendum how will you vote? For which side will you campaign?

“Well the party’s position at this moment is that this remains hypothetical. Let’s win the referendum argument and then decide. I understand this and don’t seek to railroad my colleagues in any way. Unlike our rivals the so-called ‘Labour’ party we are a democratic organisation and the members will decide.

“But as a born and bred Scot with some history in this country I feel obligated to make my own personal position clear.

“As Marx (Groucho) said: ‘When the facts change, so do my opinions.’

“As a former opponent of independence I have changed my opinion. I will support Scottish independence at the next referendum.

“If God spares me I will campaign and vote for the end of the United Kingdom. The time has come for unity and independence in Ireland and independence for Scotland and Wales.

“The British state is financially, politically, and morally bankrupt for reasons I have adumbrated so many times on screen and in print and will continue to do.”

https://www.thenational.scot/news/25957698.george-galloway-u-turns-scottish-independence-2026-elections/

In any future threads about George Galloway I will be describing him as a Scottish nationalist.

In the late 19th century, Han Chinese settlers on Taiwan would EAT the locals, as they thought it would confer strength - eating certain desirable parts of these brave warrior tribesmen. They also boiled the meat down to make a soup, that supposedly prevented malaria

It's good that those sort of practices have gone out of fashion.

What amazes me is how this fact is barely known. I only found out coz I was in Taiwan and I did a lot of deep reading. Then discovered this

If it was an atrocity committed by western imperialists it would be in every single history book and endlessly cited as an example of hideous colonialist depravity

In China? Meh. TThey shrug

More sinned against than sinning, China, in the grand sweep of things over recorded time. But, yes. they've had their moments.

This is highly disoutable. If you look at Chinese imperialist atrocities over 3000 years, it's a long and extraordinary list, much of it barely known

eg Ever heard of this? Me neither, til very recently

"The Dzungar genocide (Chinese: 準噶爾滅族; pinyin: Zhǔngáěr mièzú) was the mass extermination of the Dzungar people, a confederation of Oirat Mongol tribes, by the Qing dynasty.[3]

The Dzungar Khanate was a confederation of several Tibetan Buddhist Oirat Mongol tribes that emerged in the early 17th century, and the last great nomadic empire in Asia. Some scholars estimate that about 80% of the Dzungar population, or around 500,000 to 800,000 people, were killed by a combination of warfare and disease during or after the Qing conquest in 1755–1757.[2][5] After wiping out the native population of Dzungaria, the Qing government then resettled Han, Hui, Uyghur, Salar and Sibe people on state farms in Dzungaria, along with Manchu Bannermen to repopulate the area."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzungar_genocide

I am a great admirer of China's magnificently ancient and storied civilisation. Also, steamed clams in rice wine, mm

However, "more sinned against that sinning"?? A lot of China's neighbours - some now absorbed into China - would disagree

China has been an Empire for ages and Empires do heinous things to enforce Imperial hegemony over their reluctant subjects, as critics of the shorter-lived British Empire are wont to point out (me included). I think there's essentially only been about a century when China wasn't imposing Imperial control, in more than two millennia of its history.

To say that China was, "more sinned against than sinning," is such an incuriously Eurocentric view of history.

Afternoon all.
Was taking a look at the Reform polling decline after last nights Opinium. They were last as low as 27 with them straddling the 2025 LEs (only a couple of 29s since, all others 30 plus) and were at 27 with them as far back as Jan 2025. The same goes for YouGov and Find Out Now - back to pre LE 2025 levels.with other pollsters they are running a point to two points above the run in to 2025 LEs.
The point i think that will prove crucial is that they are hitting these levels on a sharpish downward trajectory and not the sharp upward one early 2025 saw. This suggests at least the possibility of an undershoot versus expectations. Im of the opinion as we stand that this will show itself in a very poor Holyrood showing (possibly even falling below the Tories, LDs or Greens in seats, very probably below Labour), a poor London result, perhaps 4th in wards won and no more than 1 or 2 councils and failing to come first in Wales. Then id take a look at thr 73 seats they are defending - how many of them are lost?

The polls may turn of course and they have the virtual standing start premium of lots of gains but the potential for narrative shift exists

As you say though in most polls Reform are polling about as well as before the LE2025, they are about tied in Wales for the lead, likely to win the most or second most list seats at Holyrood and make gains in outer London suburbs. We are a long way yet from saying Reform are in real decline

Doing 30 braking versus doing 30 accelerating.

Unless heavy tactical anti Reform votes this year though Reform will likely see similar gains, especially in the country council and redwall large town and northern and Midlands cities voting and in Wales

I am not so sure about Farage in Wales as I once was. Yes, we love the racism and misogyny, but has the gloss been taken off by Nathan Gill and Farage's recent assertion that Welsh is a foreign language and Welsh language speakers who don't want to speak English can f*** off from where their ancestors came from in 800 AD and earlier. Eight hundred AD some years, it is worth mentioning is before the Huguenot Farage's ancestors left France.it is worth mentioning

Latest Welsh poll earlier this month still has Reform joint top on 26% with Plaid, with Labour third on 20%, followed by the Tories and Greens tied on 10%


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Senedd_election

Not long ago I feared Reform would walk it. Plaid with Labour is probable now.

Every party needs to blame Trump for his vanity war and the reason fuel is unavailable and expensive, and that over here, Trump's little helper is a sweary man called Nigel.

The question really is, is this country more anti or pro Reform.

I am hoping Trump's unhinged war and Nigel's well known Trump adjacency might damage him. I am sure being unable to procure petrol is more important to the man cutting up the Clapham Omnibus. than hating people who aren't white.

All this Trump unhinged is all very well.....but what would you be saying if the loony religious leaders in Iran attacked the West/Israel with Nuclear weapons.
You would be the first to scream about the US not taking proactive action.

I don't believe you will find a post where I have cheered on the Mullahs. I would love to see regime change and if it were possible a secular democracy.
That said, Obama had a perfectly reasonable deal with Iran which limited their nuclear programmes and precluded them from producing weaponry. Trump 45 tore that up.

Bibi has been pleading with US Presidents on and off since 1996 to attack Tehran because the Mullahs are a mere 5 minutes away from acquiring nuclear weapons. Every President to Trump 47 has chosen to steer well clear of the quagmire we now find ourselves in the midst of. Trump 45 knew it was folly, but Trump 47 needed to bury the Epstein files. Go figure.

Quite.
The US already dealt out serious damage to Iran's nuclear ambitions.
There was no immediate need for this attack if preventing bomb development was the aim (and that's far from clear). And the attack was launched in the middle of nuclear negotiations.

Against that, Trump and Netanyahu are taking enormous risks for the world economy, in return for an outcome which is highly uncertain.

I sometimes wonder if Trump is on a commission from Russia to f*** up the World order in their favour.

This is the best news for Unionists in many a year.

George Galloway U-turns on Scottish independence for 2026 elections

POLITICAL firebrand George Galloway has U-turned on his opposition to Scottish independence, saying the “British state is financially, politically, and morally bankrupt”.

In comments posted on Facebook but delivered as a speech to Workers Party Scotland members, Galloway said he had changed his opinion and “if God spares me, I will campaign and vote for the end of the United Kingdom”.

In the 2021 Holyrood elections, Galloway stood for the “All for Unity” campaign and pledged to “tackle the scourge of separatism”. He said he would vote Conservative in a bid to court Unionist voters, but his campaign group ultimately failed to win any seats...

...The former Labour politician is now standing for Workers Party Scotland in the 2026 Holyrood elections in Glasgow Southside. He is also second on the party’s Glasgow regional list, behind lead candidate Yvonne Ridley.

Ahead of a campaign launch event in Govan on Friday, March 27, Galloway said his party would support a push for a second independence referendum – and that he personally would campaign for a Yes vote.

“We go into the coming elections for Holyrood in May, behind our lead candidate Yvonne Ridley, wholly committed to a second referendum on the issue of Scottish independence,” he said.

“We demand that the votes of all pro-referendum parties in this election be counted as the stated will of the Scottish public. In other words these elections must be explicitly called a referendum on a referendum.”

Galloway went on: “Now the question inevitably arises: if we get the referendum how will you vote? For which side will you campaign?

“Well the party’s position at this moment is that this remains hypothetical. Let’s win the referendum argument and then decide. I understand this and don’t seek to railroad my colleagues in any way. Unlike our rivals the so-called ‘Labour’ party we are a democratic organisation and the members will decide.

“But as a born and bred Scot with some history in this country I feel obligated to make my own personal position clear.

“As Marx (Groucho) said: ‘When the facts change, so do my opinions.’

“As a former opponent of independence I have changed my opinion. I will support Scottish independence at the next referendum.

“If God spares me I will campaign and vote for the end of the United Kingdom. The time has come for unity and independence in Ireland and independence for Scotland and Wales.

“The British state is financially, politically, and morally bankrupt for reasons I have adumbrated so many times on screen and in print and will continue to do.”

https://www.thenational.scot/news/25957698.george-galloway-u-turns-scottish-independence-2026-elections/

In any future threads about George Galloway I will be describing him as a Scottish nationalist.

To be fair, George Galloway knows a lot about being morally bankrupt.

.

In the late 19th century, Han Chinese settlers on Taiwan would EAT the locals, as they thought it would confer strength - eating certain desirable parts of these brave warrior tribesmen. They also boiled the meat down to make a soup, that supposedly prevented malaria

It's good that those sort of practices have gone out of fashion.

What amazes me is how this fact is barely known. I only found out coz I was in Taiwan and I did a lot of deep reading. Then discovered this

If it was an atrocity committed by western imperialists it would be in every single history book and endlessly cited as an example of hideous colonialist depravity

In China? Meh. TThey shrug

More sinned against than sinning, China, in the grand sweep of things over recorded time. But, yes. they've had their moments.

This is highly disoutable. If you look at Chinese imperialist atrocities over 3000 years, it's a long and extraordinary list, much of it barely known

eg Ever heard of this? Me neither, til very recently

"The Dzungar genocide (Chinese: 準噶爾滅族; pinyin: Zhǔngáěr mièzú) was the mass extermination of the Dzungar people, a confederation of Oirat Mongol tribes, by the Qing dynasty.[3]

The Dzungar Khanate was a confederation of several Tibetan Buddhist Oirat Mongol tribes that emerged in the early 17th century, and the last great nomadic empire in Asia. Some scholars estimate that about 80% of the Dzungar population, or around 500,000 to 800,000 people, were killed by a combination of warfare and disease during or after the Qing conquest in 1755–1757.[2][5] After wiping out the native population of Dzungaria, the Qing government then resettled Han, Hui, Uyghur, Salar and Sibe people on state farms in Dzungaria, along with Manchu Bannermen to repopulate the area."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzungar_genocide

I am a great admirer of China's magnificently ancient and storied civilisation. Also, steamed clams in rice wine, mm

However, "more sinned against that sinning"?? A lot of China's neighbours - some now absorbed into China - would disagree

China has been an Empire for ages and Empires do heinous things to enforce Imperial hegemony over their reluctant subjects, as critics of the shorter-lived British Empire are wont to point out (me included). I think there's essentially only been about a century when China wasn't imposing Imperial control, in more than two millennia of its history.

To say that China was, "more sinned against than sinning," is such an incuriously Eurocentric view of history.

We should all should aspire to a restlessly curious nothing-centric view of history, LP. With you there. I will try and up my game.

The China centric view might be that their geography is a significant factor ?

We mentioned famines and cannibalism upthread. That's a recurrent feature of their history.
Irrigation on a massive scale allowed extremely large populations (by the standards of the time) to be supported, but when that failed, millions died.

Maintaining that system required order - historically, famines seem as likely to have been manmade, when that broke down from either war or large scale banditry, as they were from climate conditions.

The areas of rich production also made very tempting targets for less well endowed regions.

Put that all together and you have a highly repressive social order, punctuated by times of huge and deadly disorder.

That's a highly simplistic description, but it's undeniably a quite different dynamic to early western societies.

KHARG ISLAND

"You have the watches, we have the time" as the Taliban apparently used to say about the US.



Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
·
2h
But Iran has weathered long periods of ultra-low oil exports. Back in 2020-22, Iran endured American "maximum pressure" on its petroleum industry, with exports at times down 90% from today's levels. And Iran didn't buckle then. Thus, it's unlikely to do so now.


Javier Blas
@JavierBlas
·
2h
Unlike the Islamic Republic, Trump doesn’t have the benefit of time. He needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in days or, at most, weeks or oil prices would rally. He doesn’t have months to crank up the pressure on Iran via Kharg to accept a deal. Time favours Tehran.

🧵10/10

https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2035764762294747449

Presumably all the analysts that could have appraised the current goons in the Oval Room of this have been fired.

Apprised.

Thank you.
If I was a bounder I would blame auto correct.