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On the subject of Aberdeen. I am currently staying 3 days a week at the house of a friend (a South African) in the city whilst I work on decomm jobs up there. His house is in one of the nicer parts of the city close to Duthie Park. He had intended selling up last year and moving back to South Africa with his family.

He bought his house in 2012 for £600,000. He has had about £150,000 in work done on the place. When he tried to sell in spring last year he priced it at £500,000 on the recommendation of various estate agents and got no interest at all. He has now taken it off the market. The collapse in house prices in Aberdeen in the last 2 years has been remarkable.

Aberdeen house prices have always been boom and bust, they may have finally come to the point where the market realises there is going to be no more boom. Without oil Aberdeen prices should have been on a par with those of Dundee, and they’re probably now converging.

I wonder if the people of Dundee regret or are relieved that their leadership screwed up the arrival of the Oil industry in the early 70s? The original plan was for Dundee to be the main centre for UK O&G but the local politicians rejected the plans and hence it all went to Aberdeen.

Dundee University still retained it centre of excellence role for oil and gas studies. But thin gruel compared to what Aberdeen bagged.

On the subject of Aberdeen. I am currently staying 3 days a week at the house of a friend (a South African) in the city whilst I work on decomm jobs up there. His house is in one of the nicer parts of the city close to Duthie Park. He had intended selling up last year and moving back to South Africa with his family.

He bought his house in 2012 for £600,000. He has had about £150,000 in work done on the place. When he tried to sell in spring last year he priced it at £500,000 on the recommendation of various estate agents and got no interest at all. He has now taken it off the market. The collapse in house prices in Aberdeen in the last 2 years has been remarkable.

Aberdeen house prices have always been boom and bust, they may have finally come to the point where the market realises there is going to be no more boom. Without oil Aberdeen prices should have been on a par with those of Dundee, and they’re probably now converging.

I wonder if the people of Dundee regret or are relieved that their leadership screwed up the arrival of the Oil industry in the early 70s? The original plan was for Dundee to be the main centre for UK O&G but the local politicians rejected the plans and hence it all went to Aberdeen.

Total disaster for Dundee from which we have never recovered. Aberdeen has its problems now, seriously aggravated by the idiocy of Miliband, but it has also had many good times which set the City up in ways we can only dream of. And, as I am sure you have, when you go around the industrial estates around Aberdeen there are still a lot of hi tec firms working away, often far away from the North Sea.

Scotland was probably after London one of the better results for the Tories in May. Although the Scottish Tories still lost MSPs whereas London Tories made net gains of council seats, they held most of their Holyrood constituencies. Whereas in provincial England outside London lots of Tory councillors lost their seats particularly to Reform and Scottish Tories got a higher voteshare in the Holyrood vote than Welsh Tories did in the Senedd.

Kemi also still has a reasonable 20% favourable rating in Scotland. The Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine Holyrood seat which largely overlaps with the Aberdeen South Westminster seat was also one of a minority of constituencies in Scotland where the Tories beat Reform and were still in the top 2 against the SNP. Indeed the Tories were just 4% behind the SNP so if they squeeze the 17% who voted Reform then they could beat the SNP and win the seat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_Deeside_and_North_Kincardine

Arbroath is the type of seat Labour might win back if Burnham wins the Makerfield by election and replaces Starmer as Labour leader and PM but it won't while Starmer remains PM which he still will be when the by elections are held

How is going from 31 MSPs to 12 in Scotland one of the Tories' "better results"?

Scotland was probably after London one of the better results for the Tories in May. Although the Scottish Tories still lost MSPs whereas London Tories made net gains of council seats, they held most of their Holyrood constituencies. Whereas in provincial England outside London lots of Tory councillors lost their seats particularly to Reform and Scottish Tories got a higher voteshare in the Holyrood vote than Welsh Tories did in the Senedd.

Kemi also still has a reasonable 20% favourable rating in Scotland. The Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine Holyrood seat which largely overlaps with the Aberdeen South Westminster seat was also one of a minority of constituencies in Scotland where the Tories beat Reform and were still in the top 2 against the SNP. Indeed the Tories were just 4% behind the SNP so if they squeeze the 17% who voted Reform then they could beat the SNP and win the seat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_Deeside_and_North_Kincardine

Arbroath is the type of seat Labour might win back if Burnham wins the Makerfield by election and replaces Starmer as Labour leader and PM but it won't while Starmer remains PM which he still will be when the by elections are held

Good analysis HYUFD, in fact my Scottish Conservative MSP increased his majority in the North East in the Holyrood election and speaking to activist friends during the campaign Kemi Badenoch's increasingly positive personal polling was starting to be picked up on the doorsteps. She was back campaigning in Aberdeen South yesterday.

And as I posted yesterday, Harriet Cross gained the new neighbouring Westminster seat of Gordon and Buchan for the Scottish Conservatives against the political tide in 2024 and the losing SNP incumbent MP is now standing for the SNP in the Aberdeen South by-election.

I've put a few pennies on the Tories at Aberdeen South at 3.0 based on this.

It's win win for Kemi really. If the Tories win it's evidence of her growing popularity. If they lose, well of course they lost, it's Scotland.

David Sullivan steps down as West Ham chairman

After historical allegations, which he denies. He lives in Theydon Bois. Met him once, quite a character and the only billionaire I have met though he did like young ladies but given how he initially made his money no surprise there

Hard to knock what he did for Birmingham City FC

Bought us in early 90s on a day bailiffs we're literally locking the gates, invested, went down, reinvested, rebuilt 75% of the ground, got Barry Fry in, quids for a quid 27000 on a Monday night for lower league Cup game.

Bought it Trevor Francis, then Steve Bruce, League Cup final as EFL club v Liverpool robbed by David Ellary from a great win. 4th play off, season saw promoted to PL

4 great seasons dominated the Vile, got relegated promoted right back..

Dugarry signing a master stroke.

He shot from the hip never popular with fans, David Gold was though.

Lost interest got involved in horse racing.

Sold us to a Chinese moneylaunderer hairdresser who got sentenced in HK he sold us to feck knows who.. Cambodian, Vietnamese money launderers who would issue and buy shares to prop up hid knows what.

Thankfully some very genuine Yanks came in


All started with Sullivan but his wealth creation methods were always questionable too.

Scotland was probably after London one of the better results for the Tories in May. Although the Scottish Tories still lost MSPs whereas London Tories made net gains of council seats, they held most of their Holyrood constituencies. Whereas in provincial England outside London lots of Tory councillors lost their seats particularly to Reform and Scottish Tories got a higher voteshare in the Holyrood vote than Welsh Tories did in the Senedd.

Kemi also still has a reasonable 20% favourable rating in Scotland. The Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine Holyrood seat which largely overlaps with the Aberdeen South Westminster seat was also one of a minority of constituencies in Scotland where the Tories beat Reform and were still in the top 2 against the SNP. Indeed the Tories were just 4% behind the SNP so if they squeeze the 17% who voted Reform then they could beat the SNP and win the seat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_Deeside_and_North_Kincardine

Arbroath is the type of seat Labour might win back if Burnham wins the Makerfield by election and replaces Starmer as Labour leader and PM but it won't while Starmer remains PM which he still will be when the by elections are held

Good analysis HYUFD, in fact my Scottish Conservative MSP increased his majority in the North East in the Holyrood election and speaking to activist friends during the campaign Kemi Badenoch's increasingly positive personal polling was starting to be picked up on the doorsteps. She was back campaigning in Aberdeen South yesterday.

And as I posted yesterday, Harriet Cross gained the new neighbouring Westminster seat of Gordon and Buchan for the Scottish Conservatives against the political tide in 2024 and the losing SNP incumbent MP is now standing for the SNP in the Aberdeen South by-election.

The odds are slowly moving in a Conservative direction in Aberdeen South.

SNP 1.46
Con 2.68

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.258320914

Don't see it myself. The Murrell scandal would have killed almost any other party. The SNP remain bullet proof as the recent election showed. I expect a fairly comfortable SNP win.

I heard a Scottish journalist on the radio the other day, not an SNP nor Murrell supporter.

He said something very interesting


Firstly he doubted that any 12 person Jury would ever find Sturgeon guilty had she have been charged with any linked offence

Secondly he doubted if the scandal would have any material impact on SNP v Reform or Tory battles as Farage was viewed as US and, Russian sponsored crook and The Tories would never be forgiven for Boris, Truss corruption and incompetence.

I can guarantee that no 12 person jury would find her guilty. We have 15 on a jury up here. If that was the extent of his knowledge of Scottish affairs I would be cautious.

It’s about the average standard for Scottish journalists. In fact, the words Scottish and journalist shouldn’t be used in the same sentence.

I still remember Henry McLeish and his fiasco. The Scottish media messed around his story for weeks. And then he made the mistake of going on Newsnight. 20 minutes later his career was over. It was painful how inept and ineffective the Scottish media were. And have been ever since.