Best Of
Re: Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
Trump (and the people around him) will go for Cuba.I quite like it, but keep the camera rolling for a few more weeks......OK as everyone is trying to take my job as the PB Panjandrum of Pessimism I’m going to have a bash at optimism. In the sunWe're fucked aren't we ?Like a stepmom on well you know where.
Let’s say the war lasts two more weeks. By that time Israel and the USA have absolutely pulverised Iran into the dust, so it won’t be a threat for a generation. Trump declares victory
Yes there is a horrible oil price spike but as the war ends everything reopens quickly. Iran needs the money. Dubai is damaged but it will bounce back
There is a relief rally. Stocks surge. Pressure for regime change in Iran actually begins to succeed. Meanwhile without his Iranian friends to help, Putin has no choice but to seek a peace in Ukraine
The world, remarkably, takes a massive turn for the better
Why not?
The Israelis know that they can con the White House into doing stupid things, so they think of a few more ... greater security in Lebanon, lebensraum into Egypt or whatever. So they start firing missiles again, and the US is tricked into joining in again.
Trump gains kudos for "doing a Vietnam (i.e. declaring a victory, and going home.) Unfortunately, he then recognises himself as a Triumphant War Leader, a veritable Wellington de nos jours, so feels compelled to invade Mexico, or Canada, or Greenland or similar, in order to Build a Wall or liberate some polar bears or whatever.
Even if Iran is a "success" for Trump, it will only encourage him to go on to make things worse. Maybe it's for the best if it drags on for a few more months in order to 1) keep him busy, and 2) re-educate the American voters.
Cuba eluded JFK. Being remembered for getting it under Uncle Sam's thumb will be just too tempting for Trump's ego.
Re: Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
Fembots: "You can't resist us, Mr. Powers!"I am surprised you didn't stick with Nick Timothy and his vile wibblings for your thread header. At least it would have kept Leon on topic until tomorrow.How are the fem bots treating you Pete?
Austin: "Au contraire, baby. I think that you can't resist me!"
Re: Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
I'm surprised that people are relatively positive about Iran not getting the bomb. I feel the opposite is more likely. Iran can surely see how MAD has deterred the US from inflicting real pain on Russia, and kept North Korea ticking over. I would be amazed if Iran does not get the bomb in the long-term as a consequence of the current conflict. I also expect many other countries to do likewise.Experts on Iran seem to think as you do as far as I can see.
Their need to get the bomb just got a whole lot bigger.
Re: Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
At one time I regularly met with professional colleagues from Northern Ireland. As you say charming friendly company.I'd go regularly to meet teams for seminars.I've been a couple of times. As you say, normally everyone's very pleasant indeed. However, just now and again......The only couple of times I've visited, everyone I encountered was charming.You've never met a bigoted Presbytarian Unionist is Northern Ireland then?The fundamentalists are indeed scary beings.I've been weakly Islamophobic ever since the Salman Rushdie thing kicked off in '89.What utter nonsense.Let the lefties stand by while we allow ourselves to become an Islamic nation. Well said Nick Timothy and well done Kemi for backing him upShe’s not going to sack Nick Timothy for expressing an obvious truthAgree it was poorI thought it was a weak PMQs all round.52 to 48. I am not sure who was the 52 mind.
1 0 Starmer though as Nick Timothy is fatally wounded.
We are not becoming "an Islamic nation".
Timothy is just indulging in shit stirring bordering on Islamophobia.
Also true of some of the nuttier fundamentalists in the US (Hegseth's pastor, for example).
(Though the first time was at the start of the troubles in Belfast, and there were distant explosions all night.)
Actually my worst experience was on the mainland, with a visitor from Ulster, At a social event I was asked what I thought of the situation in Ulster. I was a guest so said, I thought diplomatically, that it was difficult for someone in Essex to tell.
Got a mouthful about how it was all the Catholics, should all be shot.
We would do protestants one day, catholics the next, not always in that order, but almost totally segregated.
It was interesting that a few with no religious or political side would all be with the Catholics. A few on private said they felt more welcomed.
We always had a great time with both, work and socially.
Charming friendly company.
It was just now and again.
Re: Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
Kudos to the Jewish News journalist who skewers the hypocrisy in Nick Timothy's bleatings.https://bylinetimes.com/2026/03/18/kemi-badenoch-defends-shadow-minister-who-called-london-muslim-celebrations-an-act-of-domination/Timothy must go?
"When a Jewish News journalist pointed out that similarly large single sex prayer events are also held by Orthodox Jews in London, Badenoch’s representative replied that the Iftar event was “different”, without explaining how."
Well that's ok then!
If she fails to answer the question fully if put to her, she should consider her position too?
There's a notion out there Muslims are somehow given "special treatment" and other religions are ignored or disadvantaged. Certainly, in my part of the world, Hindu, Sikh, Orthodox and Christian religious events are observed,
Diwali and especially Onam (Keralan) are observed in East Ham as is the birthday of Guru Nanak when there is a Sikh parade down the High Street.
4
Re: Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
Yep. More war drama is certain after this. The most powerful military in history at his disposal. Pulverising unloved places with no air defences. Saying hard-on things 24/7 like "we're obliterating them" and "biggest bombs ever" and "maybe I'll stop soon, maybe I won't" to the watching world, then the cherry on top - probably the most thrilling aspect of all - charged gatherings at home in Palm Beach where serious looking men in uniform come along and present 'options', we can take this out with a bunkerbuster, Mr President, we can take that out with an ankleduster, yeah we definitely can, just say the word, Mr President, it just needs the greenlight from the commander-in-chief, from you sir. From YOU. He's addicted now. It's a big factor, the biggest. How he feels. He's told us this and for once it's true. However it turns out don't make the mistake of believing any of it is driven by calculated geopolitical objectives. Donald Trump is about impulse. He's a child. Thirty months to go, god help us.I quite like it, but keep the camera rolling for a few more weeks......OK as everyone is trying to take my job as the PB Panjandrum of Pessimism I’m going to have a bash at optimism. In the sunWe're fucked aren't we ?Like a stepmom on well you know where.
Let’s say the war lasts two more weeks. By that time Israel and the USA have absolutely pulverised Iran into the dust, so it won’t be a threat for a generation. Trump declares victory
Yes there is a horrible oil price spike but as the war ends everything reopens quickly. Iran needs the money. Dubai is damaged but it will bounce back
There is a relief rally. Stocks surge. Pressure for regime change in Iran actually begins to succeed. Meanwhile without his Iranian friends to help, Putin has no choice but to seek a peace in Ukraine
The world, remarkably, takes a massive turn for the better
Why not?
The Israelis know that they can con the White House into doing stupid things, so they think of a few more ... greater security in Lebanon, lebensraum into Egypt or whatever. So they start firing missiles again, and the US is tricked into joining in again.
Trump gains kudos for "doing a Vietnam (i.e. declaring a victory, and going home.) Unfortunately, he then recognises himself as a Triumphant War Leader, a veritable Wellington de nos jours, so feels compelled to invade Mexico, or Canada, or Greenland or similar, in order to Build a Wall or liberate some polar bears or whatever.
Even if Iran is a "success" for Trump, it will only encourage him to go on to make things worse. Maybe it's for the best if it drags on for a few more months in order to 1) keep him busy, and 2) re-educate the American voters.
kinabalu
1
Re: Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
He noted it. Also (being a nerd) that Red Poles = Central Line.He was Wombling freeOnly the Windrush Line on London Overground.I'm inclined to think that Trump's War will have less impact than feared, at least here, because he has a glass jaw and will TACO.The fact there is no tube in Peckham should have been the giveaway here.
For anyone wanting cheering up, here's Evan Edinger pulling the legs off AI "anti-London" videos, including the one that uses footage from Derby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDkyP37JgY0
Here's a screenshot form a video showing dangerous threats on the tube in Peckham:
But that particular tweeter has 50k followers and is putting out dozens of tweets a day; it's extreme politics for money-making. That is an indicator of the scale of this stuff.
https://x.com/KieraDiss
MattW
1
Re: Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
Late afternoon all 
I can't compete with South Devon but even East Ham and Barking aren't without their attractions on such a fine afternoon.
Coffee overlooking the Barking Creek - it's not quite Venice, well, it's not Venice at all, apart from the water...
The end of Ramadan approaches and I see one or two are getting a bit over-excited. I don't know if anyone has open Suhoor prayers but on Friday (not sure if it will be tomorrow given the good weather), areas of each park in Newham will be closed off for Eid-al-Fitr prayers and obviously it's an observed religious event here just as Christian, Sikh, Muslim and Orthodox holidays and festivals are.
Should we be using religion and faith to define ourselves as a nation and a people? I'm not convinced being British is defined by the God to whom you pray (that seems to be the Restore line). Yes, we have a Christian history and tradition (though that's not been without its issues) but I'd like to think many of the values we have (or claim to have) are represented and present in faiths other than Christianity.
Yet I'm not blind to the fact there are aspects to some faiths (primarily but not exclusively relating to the lifestyle) which don't sit well with me or many others. I've no objection to individuals wishing to strictly adhere to the tenets of a faith but I object to those tenets being imposed on individuals without their approval or choice.
I can't compete with South Devon but even East Ham and Barking aren't without their attractions on such a fine afternoon.
Coffee overlooking the Barking Creek - it's not quite Venice, well, it's not Venice at all, apart from the water...
The end of Ramadan approaches and I see one or two are getting a bit over-excited. I don't know if anyone has open Suhoor prayers but on Friday (not sure if it will be tomorrow given the good weather), areas of each park in Newham will be closed off for Eid-al-Fitr prayers and obviously it's an observed religious event here just as Christian, Sikh, Muslim and Orthodox holidays and festivals are.
Should we be using religion and faith to define ourselves as a nation and a people? I'm not convinced being British is defined by the God to whom you pray (that seems to be the Restore line). Yes, we have a Christian history and tradition (though that's not been without its issues) but I'd like to think many of the values we have (or claim to have) are represented and present in faiths other than Christianity.
Yet I'm not blind to the fact there are aspects to some faiths (primarily but not exclusively relating to the lifestyle) which don't sit well with me or many others. I've no objection to individuals wishing to strictly adhere to the tenets of a faith but I object to those tenets being imposed on individuals without their approval or choice.
2
Re: Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
Every other pollster finds around 8 to 12% can currently identify Rupert Lowe.https://x.com/gbpolitcs/status/2034320777340699034I just really struggling to understand Lowe / Advance (is that his party, i forget?) polling numbers. I really dont believe most people have any idea who he is and he has a political party.
NEW: Most preferred choice for Prime Minister
- Nigel Farage: 26%
- Zack Polanski: 21%
- Keir Starmer: 16%
- Kemi Badenoch: 14%
- Rupert Lowe: 13%
- Ed Davey: 9%
[@FindoutnowUK]
More reasons why I consider Find Out Now the lead standard, their sample is fatally flawed.
Re: Bad expectations – politicalbetting.com
I'm having a Hebrew moment; read from Right to Left !You meant "form Derby"?!?I'm inclined to think that Trump's War will have less impact than feared, at least here, because he has a glass jaw and will TACO.Typo from/form. Sorry.
For anyone wanting cheering up, here's Evan Edinger pulling the legs off AI "anti-London" videos, including the one that uses footage from Derby.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDkyP37JgY0
Here's a screenshot form a video showing dangerous threats on the tube in Peckham:
MattW
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