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Re: I agree with Robert Jenrick (and Kemi Badenoch should take his advice) – politicalbetting.com
I think Isam/Frayne are wrong. Tory oblivion isn't even close, and is substantially less close than it was when Reform peaked and was getting 34/35%. At this moment if the Tories went up 4 or 5 points and Reform went down the same, Tories would be in the driving seat. Something like this will be the case by the end of 2026 IMO. Increasingly Reform look like a bunch of untalented chancers who won't criticise Trump even as he shows himself to be our adversary. Their high profile converts are an unimpressive bunch of carpetbaggers, unworthy of respect.Hard to argue with this from James FrayneI fear so. Not certain, sure, but there's definite complacency.
“Across Westminster, people are desperately talking up Badenoch. This simply isn’t reflected in polls on voting intention, and the party is heading towards oblivion.”
https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/2013081004085219394?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
The roughly 50% of voters who will vote 'right of centre' are very much in play.
Re: I agree with Robert Jenrick (and Kemi Badenoch should take his advice) – politicalbetting.com
Starmer is a spineless worm. Again.
Re: I agree with Robert Jenrick (and Kemi Badenoch should take his advice) – politicalbetting.com
@maxseddon
Donald Trump has invited Vladimir Putin to the Gaza "peace board," the Kremlin says.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, says Russia is "studying all details of the offer" and "hopes for discussions with Washington to go over all the nuances," per RIA Novosti.
Donald Trump has invited Vladimir Putin to the Gaza "peace board," the Kremlin says.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, says Russia is "studying all details of the offer" and "hopes for discussions with Washington to go over all the nuances," per RIA Novosti.
Scott_xP
2
Re: I agree with Robert Jenrick (and Kemi Badenoch should take his advice) – politicalbetting.com
@johnharris1969.bsky.social
Starmer's prob is that this sounds like a holding speech in the midst of a huge realignment (or, more accurately,a nutter President causing chaos). Fair dos. But ppl will also hear very Starmer-esque denial of the need for agility & imagination. The moment demands v. rare skills (that he hasn't got)
@jwsidders.bsky.social
Fair summation. Everything Starmer said was right. The way he said it was totally wrong. Very, very Starmer!
Starmer's prob is that this sounds like a holding speech in the midst of a huge realignment (or, more accurately,a nutter President causing chaos). Fair dos. But ppl will also hear very Starmer-esque denial of the need for agility & imagination. The moment demands v. rare skills (that he hasn't got)
@jwsidders.bsky.social
Fair summation. Everything Starmer said was right. The way he said it was totally wrong. Very, very Starmer!
Scott_xP
2
Re: I agree with Robert Jenrick (and Kemi Badenoch should take his advice) – politicalbetting.com
'The US is acting with impunity and believes its power matters more than international law, the head of the UN has told the BBC.Stephen Miller said exactly the same last week.
Nigelb
1
Re: I agree with Robert Jenrick (and Kemi Badenoch should take his advice) – politicalbetting.com
I think there is an opportunity here for Badenoch. This fannying about by Starmer won't be tolerated for much longer and I think he's left a significant gap for her between his inaction and Davey's pontifications. Something that is both pragmatic and patriotic, about standing up to bullies.I think Davey is already there......
Re: I agree with Robert Jenrick (and Kemi Badenoch should take his advice) – politicalbetting.com
I think there is an opportunity here for Badenoch. This fannying about by Starmer won't be tolerated for much longer and I think he's left a significant gap for her between his inaction and Davey's pontifications. Something that is both pragmatic and patriotic, about standing up to bullies.
Eabhal
3
Re: I agree with Robert Jenrick (and Kemi Badenoch should take his advice) – politicalbetting.com
Starmer is in a difficult position but this rather tedious, technocratic triangulation isn’t the message for the moment. He’d have been better issuing a statement if this was all he was going to say.
Re: I agree with Robert Jenrick (and Kemi Badenoch should take his advice) – politicalbetting.com
What I hope Starmer is doing is what the Chamberlain supporters say Chamberlain was doing: playing for time and preparing for the inevitable with that time.When Chamberlain was waving pieces of paper, his government had, for years, been re-arming. At a rate that they were finding it difficult to spend more money. Because you can't just order weapons on that scale. You have to build the factories to make the machines to build weapons, first.
But I fear he's only doing one half of that.
There's absolutely no sign of that kind of thinking here.
Re: I agree with Robert Jenrick (and Kemi Badenoch should take his advice) – politicalbetting.com
Have the Tories not cleansed themselves of the mini budget? A decent number of it's supporters have crossed over to the dark side and of course Nigel Farage claimed the Truss budget was "the most Conservative budget since 1986".Farage loves all manner of stranger things.
Tories as expressed by TSE hated it, Farage loved it!
It’s a real shame that Nigel Farage is too unwell to do interviews the morning after Donald Trump threatens us with sanctions.
Here he is with “the bravest man he ever met”. He campaigned to make Trump President, and has spent the last year enjoying all the chaos he has caused.
https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/2012839122172334374
Nigelb
2