Best Of
Re: Labour’s share of the vote in Makerfield – politicalbetting.com
That depends on what the sense of purpose is.A resounding win and Burnham succeeding Starmer by the end of summer would be my preferred outcomeReeves too. We desperately need a Chancellor with a sense of purpose.
Politics has to change and it starts with Starmer leaving office
Liz Truss had a very strong sense of purpose.
Re: Labour’s share of the vote in Makerfield – politicalbetting.com
That would depend on the purpose. I imagine they all go into the job wanting there to be economic growth and lower taxes, but then have to meet all the obligations political promises require, and deal with global shocks, and their sense of purpose becomes keeping their head above water. And finding creative ways to squeeze funds out in small ways, to avoid upsetting the public by raising bigger things or cutting things people want.A resounding win and Burnham succeeding Starmer by the end of summer would be my preferred outcomeReeves too. We desperately need a Chancellor with a sense of purpose.
Politics has to change and it starts with Starmer leaving office
kle4
5
Re: Labour’s share of the vote in Makerfield – politicalbetting.com
A resounding win and Burnham succeeding Starmer by the end of summer would be my preferred outcomeReeves too. We desperately need a Chancellor with a sense of purpose.
Politics has to change and it starts with Starmer leaving office
DavidL
2
Re: The forgotten by-elections – politicalbetting.com
One of the things about the present moment is that it's an ideal time to take a risk on an unusual message. You don't need to convince 45% of the voters to win the election. If you can convince 25% you have a pretty good chance of making it to largest party status.Trouble is that we've had about forty years of society elevating politics over government, which is the underlyreason for all of this.I still think the WFA changes were perfectly fine but I accept they communicated it horrendously and perhaps there is no way to do this policy that doesn’t tank your popularity.Looking at Starmers approval ratings they crashed straight after the WFA debacle .Starmer is a lawyer, not a politician, and has no discernible political judgement. As for why Number 10 generally did not act, that begs the question whether they knew about it in advance. Rachel Reeves is also a technocrat and, as with George Osborne's omnishambles budget, it is likely the Chancellor accepted the WFA cut from a list of Treasury suggestions without a great deal of thought.
I still find it astonishing that no one in No 10 and Starmer himself didn’t stop Reeves from putting through what will end up being the worst policy decision of recent times .
All that political pain for what was a paltry sum saved .
Supposedly Osborne and Cameron were also given this policy as an option and vetoed it. That shows they have a lot more political ability than Starmer and Reeves.
And I'm not entirely sure what we do about it. Politicians explaining the situation and their solutions, clearly and compellingly, would be a start... But they would still need a way to reach the national audience and an audience prepared to listen.
Neither of those things really exists right now. It's more comforting to believe that, if we punish Bad People X, it will all be fine- we just have to work out who X are, and that's fun. If a politician comes along saying "it's more complicated than that" (was Rory the ex-Tory the last one to try?), they don't get far.
And whilst there's a market for talking things though properly, it's niche rather than mass. The days of ten million people watching the News at Ten are long gone.
At the same time, with five major parties in England, and then the Nationalists, a distinctive message is needed to gain attention, and to try to draw a dividing line between you being the answer, and everyone else being different variations of the problem.
Re: The forgotten by-elections – politicalbetting.com
Ahem.She's got a favourable media desperate to shore tge Tories up.I used to think KB was a stone cold loser. Indeed, on this very site I likened her, both in personality and appearance, to a 45 gallon drum that had rolled through a branch of SpecSavers.Taking the most recent data point, in a council by-election on Thursday, the Tories were on the receiving end of a drubbing, falling from 1st to 3rd behind Reform and Labour.I have a theory about the Kemigasm. I've been hearing in various places how well Kemi is performing not least on here though I myself haven't seen or felt it. She seems to be sailing along midstream rather like Ed Davey. And that is what the polls show her to be doing.
The Kemigasm is not being translated into votes.
However, she does seem to able to inculcate fanatical loyalty and enthusiasm, not least on here, despite fucking miserable polls and actual election results. That's a great political gift so maybe she does have a future.
17% in the polls and some tories on here would chop their dicks off if she asked them. That's political heft. They also rerun the Corbynite line of "nobody else would do any better" so things could go the other way...
The Front Bench has to be the worst Tory Front Bench in Government or Opposition in history
The one Nation sensible centrist Tories are clearly content to bide their time and not play their hand too early.
No point appointmenting a new leader if Labour are about to change. If Labour do change in Autumn 2026,anyone with a political brain in the Tory Party will wait a year
Badenoch cannot win a GE, that is crystal clear, she can't finish higher than 3rd, quite probable 4th on seats on current polling as LD stack up large numbers in current and past Tory areas.
She's got the most unappealing and unempathetic of personalities and in the white heat of a GE her ability to argue with everyone would be disastrous for the Tories.
She's less a cult than a sticking plaster and the wankfest really is nothing more than desperate trolling.
It could be worse, I'll grant her that, it could be Priiti, it could have been Jenrick or Suella but it will have to be a far more unifying or empathetic person to give them any hope at all
Cleverly or Hunt
Re: The forgotten by-elections – politicalbetting.com
It's it quite amusing listening to our grandchildren when they are here alone with freedoms to do whatever they want, eat and drink what they want, but not alcohol, and talk freelyA policy I shall apply to my grandson.Good morningThe political problem is that grandma votes consistently and her grandchildren don't. So, inevitably, our political class run scared of grandma.Not even that, it was exceeded by the double bubble malfunction that the triple lock does when an inflation spike is followed by a pay spike the subsequent year. Something that I'm sure nobody considered at the time, but you can't help seeing once it's there.WFA was a ridiculous frippery from a bygone age before pensioners did not form a large part of those with the highest disposable income after housing costs in the country. It was absolutely the right thing to do, it is astonishing that this relic survived the Osborne years. We have got to get away from the situation where so much of our limited resources are given away to those not in need by way of universal benefits. Sooner or later that is going to include at least some of the pension.It was and sadly once they were on the back foot, it was the same with slowing the rate of growth of benefits, and their backbenchers under pressure from well organised lobbying campaigns they were always going to fold and SKS lost his authority overnight.It was a perfectly sensible financial decision presented badly.Looking at Starmers approval ratings they crashed straight after the WFA debacle .Starmer is a lawyer, not a politician, and has no discernible political judgement. As for why Number 10 generally did not act, that begs the question whether they knew about it in advance. Rachel Reeves is also a technocrat and, as with George Osborne's omnishambles budget, it is likely the Chancellor accepted the WFA cut from a list of Treasury suggestions without a great deal of thought.
I still find it astonishing that no one in No 10 and Starmer himself didn’t stop Reeves from putting through what will end up being the worst policy decision of recent times .
All that political pain for what was a paltry sum saved .
There are worse crimes.
The political problem is that there's Noone Quite Like Grandma.
Our grandchildren have learned that what goes on in grandma's house stays in grandma's house and maybe why they love visiting her
And listening to Yusaf on Kuenssberg will someone make him go away
He and Farage are simply nasty and no matter whatever happens, I do not want a reform government
As to a Reform government no one rational wants that but that is not the extent of the problem. We have no problem at all saying what government we don't want. Getting a government we do want is proving a lot trickier.
Re: The forgotten by-elections – politicalbetting.com
Its not entirely a one way street and these breakfast clubs are probably taking some of the pressure off some grandmas. But the triple lock, additional tax relief, the relief from NI contributions, free TV licences, and of course our very generous offsets for pension contributions all favour the more mature in our society. The young are getting a very raw deal at the moment.Grandma votes consistently and her grandchildren don't does not explain recent spending initiatives targeted at the young. Does grandma get leftovers from free breakfast clubs or time off babysitting because we give free childcare to couples earning up to £200,000 a year?The political problem is that grandma votes consistently and her grandchildren don't. So, inevitably, our political class run scared of grandma.Not even that, it was exceeded by the double bubble malfunction that the triple lock does when an inflation spike is followed by a pay spike the subsequent year. Something that I'm sure nobody considered at the time, but you can't help seeing once it's there.WFA was a ridiculous frippery from a bygone age before pensioners did not form a large part of those with the highest disposable income after housing costs in the country. It was absolutely the right thing to do, it is astonishing that this relic survived the Osborne years. We have got to get away from the situation where so much of our limited resources are given away to those not in need by way of universal benefits. Sooner or later that is going to include at least some of the pension.It was and sadly once they were on the back foot, it was the same with slowing the rate of growth of benefits, and their backbenchers under pressure from well organised lobbying campaigns they were always going to fold and SKS lost his authority overnight.It was a perfectly sensible financial decision presented badly.Looking at Starmers approval ratings they crashed straight after the WFA debacle .Starmer is a lawyer, not a politician, and has no discernible political judgement. As for why Number 10 generally did not act, that begs the question whether they knew about it in advance. Rachel Reeves is also a technocrat and, as with George Osborne's omnishambles budget, it is likely the Chancellor accepted the WFA cut from a list of Treasury suggestions without a great deal of thought.
I still find it astonishing that no one in No 10 and Starmer himself didn’t stop Reeves from putting through what will end up being the worst policy decision of recent times .
All that political pain for what was a paltry sum saved .
There are worse crimes.
The political problem is that there's Noone Quite Like Grandma.
DavidL
5
Re: The forgotten by-elections – politicalbetting.com
She's got a favourable media desperate to shore tge Tories up.I used to think KB was a stone cold loser. Indeed, on this very site I likened her, both in personality and appearance, to a 45 gallon drum that had rolled through a branch of SpecSavers.Taking the most recent data point, in a council by-election on Thursday, the Tories were on the receiving end of a drubbing, falling from 1st to 3rd behind Reform and Labour.I have a theory about the Kemigasm. I've been hearing in various places how well Kemi is performing not least on here though I myself haven't seen or felt it. She seems to be sailing along midstream rather like Ed Davey. And that is what the polls show her to be doing.
The Kemigasm is not being translated into votes.
However, she does seem to able to inculcate fanatical loyalty and enthusiasm, not least on here, despite fucking miserable polls and actual election results. That's a great political gift so maybe she does have a future.
17% in the polls and some tories on here would chop their dicks off if she asked them. That's political heft. They also rerun the Corbynite line of "nobody else would do any better" so things could go the other way...
The Front Bench has to be the worst Tory Front Bench in Government or Opposition in history
The one Nation sensible centrist Tories are clearly content to bide their time and not play their hand too early.
No point appointmenting a new leader if Labour are about to change. If Labour do change in Autumn 2026,anyone with a political brain in the Tory Party will wait a year
Badenoch cannot win a GE, that is crystal clear, she can't finish higher than 3rd, quite probable 4th on seats on current polling as LD stack up large numbers in current and past Tory areas.
She's got the most unappealing and unempathetic of personalities and in the white heat of a GE her ability to argue with everyone would be disastrous for the Tories.
She's less a cult than a sticking plaster and the wankfest really is nothing more than desperate trolling.
It could be worse, I'll grant her that, it could be Priiti, it could have been Jenrick or Suella but it will have to be a far more unifying or empathetic person to give them any hope at all
Cleverly or Hunt
Re: The forgotten by-elections – politicalbetting.com
And Good Morning to you nd indeed all fellow pb-ers.Good morningThe political problem is that grandma votes consistently and her grandchildren don't. So, inevitably, our political class run scared of grandma.Not even that, it was exceeded by the double bubble malfunction that the triple lock does when an inflation spike is followed by a pay spike the subsequent year. Something that I'm sure nobody considered at the time, but you can't help seeing once it's there.WFA was a ridiculous frippery from a bygone age before pensioners did not form a large part of those with the highest disposable income after housing costs in the country. It was absolutely the right thing to do, it is astonishing that this relic survived the Osborne years. We have got to get away from the situation where so much of our limited resources are given away to those not in need by way of universal benefits. Sooner or later that is going to include at least some of the pension.It was and sadly once they were on the back foot, it was the same with slowing the rate of growth of benefits, and their backbenchers under pressure from well organised lobbying campaigns they were always going to fold and SKS lost his authority overnight.It was a perfectly sensible financial decision presented badly.Looking at Starmers approval ratings they crashed straight after the WFA debacle .Starmer is a lawyer, not a politician, and has no discernible political judgement. As for why Number 10 generally did not act, that begs the question whether they knew about it in advance. Rachel Reeves is also a technocrat and, as with George Osborne's omnishambles budget, it is likely the Chancellor accepted the WFA cut from a list of Treasury suggestions without a great deal of thought.
I still find it astonishing that no one in No 10 and Starmer himself didn’t stop Reeves from putting through what will end up being the worst policy decision of recent times .
All that political pain for what was a paltry sum saved .
There are worse crimes.
The political problem is that there's Noone Quite Like Grandma.
Our grandchildren have learned that what goes on in grandma's house stays in grandma's house and maybe why they love visiting her
And listening to Yusaf on Kuenssberg will someone make him go away
He and Farage are simply nasty and no matter whatever happens, I do not want a reform government
You and me both, Mr G; whatever we've felt about the governments we've seen elected over the years, none of it compares with what we feel about the prospect of a Reform government.
Re: The forgotten by-elections – politicalbetting.com
A policy I shall apply to my grandson.Good morningThe political problem is that grandma votes consistently and her grandchildren don't. So, inevitably, our political class run scared of grandma.Not even that, it was exceeded by the double bubble malfunction that the triple lock does when an inflation spike is followed by a pay spike the subsequent year. Something that I'm sure nobody considered at the time, but you can't help seeing once it's there.WFA was a ridiculous frippery from a bygone age before pensioners did not form a large part of those with the highest disposable income after housing costs in the country. It was absolutely the right thing to do, it is astonishing that this relic survived the Osborne years. We have got to get away from the situation where so much of our limited resources are given away to those not in need by way of universal benefits. Sooner or later that is going to include at least some of the pension.It was and sadly once they were on the back foot, it was the same with slowing the rate of growth of benefits, and their backbenchers under pressure from well organised lobbying campaigns they were always going to fold and SKS lost his authority overnight.It was a perfectly sensible financial decision presented badly.Looking at Starmers approval ratings they crashed straight after the WFA debacle .Starmer is a lawyer, not a politician, and has no discernible political judgement. As for why Number 10 generally did not act, that begs the question whether they knew about it in advance. Rachel Reeves is also a technocrat and, as with George Osborne's omnishambles budget, it is likely the Chancellor accepted the WFA cut from a list of Treasury suggestions without a great deal of thought.
I still find it astonishing that no one in No 10 and Starmer himself didn’t stop Reeves from putting through what will end up being the worst policy decision of recent times .
All that political pain for what was a paltry sum saved .
There are worse crimes.
The political problem is that there's Noone Quite Like Grandma.
Our grandchildren have learned that what goes on in grandma's house stays in grandma's house and maybe why they love visiting her
And listening to Yusaf on Kuenssberg will someone make him go away
He and Farage are simply nasty and no matter whatever happens, I do not want a reform government
As to a Reform government no one rational wants that but that is not the extent of the problem. We have no problem at all saying what government we don't want. Getting a government we do want is proving a lot trickier.
DavidL
3



