Best Of

Labour - growing the gangs, smashing the economy.

Whoops. Four more years of this, I'm not sure the nation can take it.

I note that the ONS have revised their growth figures for March though, doubling their previous estimate. Supports your long-held view that they are too pessimistic.

Typical government statisticians, talking down the Conservative Labour government .

From what I saw of the ONS when I worked in an adjacent government office (shared canteen) I think if I worked there I'd have a constantly pessimistic outlook too.

The way at the end of the quarter they'd come and tell people they'd revised upwards the canteen prices and you had to pay the balance was always most irritating

Who could have predicted that the Chancellor dramatically increasing taxes in April on employment could cause a recession with declines in April and May?

Apart from anyone who understands anything about Economics that is.

Do you know anyone on here who understands anything about Economics? Maybe Robert, but I can't think of anyone else.

I thought the whole point of economics was that no one really understand economics - 'the dismal science' etc.

Having said that, @OnlyLivingBoy might claim some expertise, earning his living as an economist, I think?

It used to be said that the questions set in University economics exams were always the same - only the answers were changed.

We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.

In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.

Genuine question. What radical shifts would you like to see the Lib Dems propose?

A new constitutional settlement. Based on abolition of the Lords in its current form, introduction of PR and a stronger role for regional Government.

Doesn’t fix the problems voters care about.

They want to have a job that pays them enough to own a home, have a family, get to eat out occasionally and may be go on holiday once a year. Most people are pretty modest in their ambitions.

Liberalism is in crisis everywhere. Not just taking about the Lib Dems. There used to be a strong liberal element in the Conservative Party too.

Many of the big-hitters in the 'liberal' wing of the Conservative Party were against Boris. Hence he got rid of them.

IMV this is a significant causal factor in the party's current woes.

Agreed. The breadth and depth of the tent has been significantly narrowed making it much harder to put together a winning coalition.

This should, on topic, be a real opportunity for the Lib Dems to properly take the middle ground from the Tories once and for all but I am not sure that it is working out like that. There is a wing of the Lib Dems that is just a bit too left for former Tories and, of course, like all the main parties, there is a deep reluctance to face the reality we are living in.

As a socially liberal, fiscally hawkish ex Tory I feel pretty homeless right now.

Ditto!

As currently in a position to make first hand observations on the NHS further observations

recap

ambulance A+
A&E A+

Ward C-

Now the new stuff

Community health have been in contact, first of all apparently they have had problems contacting me because the hospital has no record of me ever being admitted! How the hell does that happen

On top of that they seem intent on supplying me on a home help that I do not need in the least the point I ended up telling them if they sent one round they will be told where to go. They also should should be applying for PIP which I don't need as I am returning to full time work and just as capable as before the incident. Not surprised therefore that numbers on PIP are rising if they are pushing folk like me towards it.

Also I had to ring the ward yesterday to supply my gp name (I wasn't registered anywhere when admitted but did after I discharged myself). The ward nurse when I rang seemed confused by ringing as according to her I still on the ward. Does not inspire confidence in their record keeping frankly

Thanks for the article on the LDs. IMO for now they will continue to be the substitute for Labour as the party opposing the Tories in up to 100 seats, and won't get further.

Their dilemma is real. If they are to expand - say into being the challenger in 300 seats and not 100, it has to be clear who is their adversary. Currently their adversary is the Tories, which rationally means that to expand they need to seek more seats where they can be the adversary of the Tories.

I don't think this can happen. They can't displace Labour. So can they displace the Tories as opponent of Labour? It doesn't look like it.

Their best approach therefore is to slightly and incrementally build on the current status, as the party who can help Labour to a second term, who are obviously not Tories, but hold some common ground with Labour.

Let's suppose that the Reform vote holds, and they go into the next general election on 30%. Could the Lib Dems sell themselves as best placed to stop Reform? Labour can't, the Tories can't, and the Greens are too insignificant in electoral terms. If Reform are the clear adversary, then it's all to play for.

Interesting question. IMO outside the up to 100 seats where LDs are serious the answer is no. Because in every case in England (S and W are different) the obvious and only tactical questions for those thinking tactically are : (1) is a Tory vote against Reform any use - or are they just Reformlite and (2) if the answer is Yes, do I vote Tory or Labour to beat Reform.

(2) is quite hard. Of the 6 seats in Cumbria, including mine, (one is LD) 5 were Tory in 2019; 5 are Labour now; 5 are projected to be Reform in 2029. What is the correct anti-Reform vote?

But LD? Not a chance.

We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.

In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.

No, I don't think we do need a new leader. Davey is highly competent and knows how to run both local and national campaigns. The next GE will be about consolidation of those 72 seats, and adding a modest amount of further ones.

@GarethoftheVale2 gets a couple of things wrong in his header, the first being the lazy stereotypes, when actually the polling shows that the LDs have some of the most even support by demographic groups. The second is his interpretation of the gap between the 17% NEV in the locals and the 14% nationally. Yes, GOTV counts, but as well as that there is a willingness of LD voters to vote tactically, and to recruit tactical voters nationally. That seam of voters has plenty left. The next GE will be a festival of tactical voting, with voters trying to keep out Reform. LDs stand to benefit.

In terms of overall policy I think the LDs are right to not buy into the "Britain is Broken" meme being driven by the populist right and Social Media. The country is not fundamentally broken, at least not more than it ever was, and that sort of relentless negativity and hate driven politics needs opposition. There's a lot of people out there who are fundamentally decent, happy to help their neighbours and happy with both diversity and international co-operation. A lot of us don't want to burn the country to its foundations.

As I was saying, about LD supporters probably not wanting too much change, thank you very much

It's a valid point, of course, there is much that is good with the country. But we have some fundamental issues, particularly around expenditure and tax receipts that need addressing, along with investing sensibly for longer term gain.

Yes, and LDs have always been better on those policies. Good stewardship of finances is a core LD position.

We need to rediscover radical liberalism from the last century. The party created modern Britain in two phases, giving us universal education, healthcare and welfare. Britain is broken at a basic level, so radical shifts are once again needed.

In short, we need a new leader. I think Ed did a fantastic job transforming our prospects after the coalition, but he’s topped out.

Genuine question. What radical shifts would you like to see the Lib Dems propose?

A new constitutional settlement. Based on abolition of the Lords in its current form, introduction of PR and a stronger role for regional Government.

Doesn’t fix the problems voters care about.

They want to have a job that pays them enough to own a home, have a family, get to eat out occasionally and may be go on holiday once a year. Most people are pretty modest in their ambitions.

They have one other modest, and entirely reasonable, ambition which is that everything the state runs or is responsible for is run excellently well. That + modest prosperity and opportunity for doing better is a very short and sensible list.

People have little interest in what structural changes are needed to achieve it, just as people don't know how a smart phone works. In that sense people are not radical or thirsting for change.

Labour - growing the gangs, smashing the economy.

Whoops. Four more years of this, I'm not sure the nation can take it.

I note that the ONS have revised their growth figures for March though, doubling their previous estimate. Supports your long-held view that they are too pessimistic.

Typical government statisticians, talking down the Conservative Labour government .

From what I saw of the ONS when I worked in an adjacent government office (shared canteen) I think if I worked there I'd have a constantly pessimistic outlook too.

Give them a new office, pay rise and stop talking down the Civil Service and see the ONS growth estimates sky-rocket