Best Of
Re: Life after Starmer – politicalbetting.com
It does seem rather fitting that nobody gets sacked for thinking it was OK to store secret highly sensitive data in one massive excel spreadsheet and pass it around on the email resulting in a £7bn bill, but a bloke allegedly said a naughty word 10 years ago in a pub and his feet doesn't touch the floor as they are booted out.
Re: Life after Starmer – politicalbetting.com
I imagine a lot of people actually prefer just to be a party of protest.It shows a lack of aspiration.A point I made on Sunday, to two quite prominent members of that party. You aren't a party of protest any longer, you are likely to win if not the next election, then the one after that, and you have to prepare your core voters for some hard choices (like dropping the triple lock).The consistency in the polls is such that Reform really need to start thinking about how they would govern. Labour had been out of power for an age but they could still lean on plenty of serving MPs and grandees with experience of government.I can’t find much mention of the Afghan story in The Sun. But this is one that will reverberate through WhatsApp and pub chats. Reform going in hard vs Jenrick and Braverman.I don't think Zia is helping himself with Reform going in studs up on Suella (or Jenrick for that matter)
https://x.com/ziayusufuk/status/1945212705721192806?s=46
I wouldn't be surprised if he suddenly 'doesnt want to spend his time getting Reform elected' again
Seems to me Farage would be well served by having a couple of ex cabinet ministers in his ranks to help navigate the den of vipers in Whitehall. The first job of a leader is to recruit well and we’ve not seen a lot of evidence Farage is much good at it. As 2029 inches closer will be fascinating to see what he does.
The problem is that much of the British establishment has shown over and again, that it has nothing but contempt for the people that it governs; that it will lie to them repeatedly (believing this to be "noble cause" lying); that it will cover up scandalous conduct; that it does not consider the voters' wishes or aspirations to be their priority; that their own mutual advancement is their most important guiding principle; that beyond a certain level, there are no penalties for failure or corruption.
And, it will keep on doing so, just like the late medieval Papacy, or the ancien regime nobility.
That has left perhaps a majority of voters now wanting to burn down the establishment, and they see Reform as the party that can do that.

1
Re: Life after Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Well, we don't want more conservatives, do we. Look at the harm they've done to the country over recent years!Many of the Uber drivers I've spoken to in the last year have been Afghans ; a hugely varied collection of people, I've found. Some who seem to look, dress and think almost indistinguably from Mediterranean Europeans, some moderate family men with science backgrounds, some reasonably conservative, and about 20% very conservative.You haven’t noticed that there’s quite a difference between the average Afghan migrant and the average Hong Kong Chinese migrant?We backed the Karzai regime and then the Ghani regime for all the usual geo-political and strategic reasons but in the end it was all built on sand and much like South Vietnam in 1975, it collapsed quickly and completely when foreign troops were no longer around to prop it up.It's not just any Afghan. It's those who assisted UK forces and therefore are at risk of being tortured and killed, with the video uploaded to twitter.You've got it the wrong way round.Reading between the lines on here, I would conclude that Baldy Ben, who I like and respect (Braverman and Jenrick - I'll just spit that out) did the right and proper thing with 24,000 Afghans who looked after our boys and girls in Helmand. Why Healy with the support of the Speaker kept the injunction going seems to be where the problem lies.I can’t find much mention of the Afghan story in The Sun. But this is one that will reverberate through WhatsApp and pub chats. Reform going in hard vs Jenrick and Braverman.This should not be reduced to an anti-immigration hobbyhorse. It's a serious matter of democratic accountability.
https://x.com/ziayusufuk/status/1945212705721192806?s=46
Reform really are a bucket of sh*t for trawling the original safety issue up and turning it onto a skin toned race issue. They are nonetheless welcome to chase down this government for the subsequent cover-up. Healy and Hoyle should be gone!
The Afghans weren't looking after 'our boys and girls in Helmand', our boys and girls were looking after the Afghans.
At very considerable cost in British lives and money.
I do not remember any government minister telling us that the reason we were in Afghanistan was to give ever increasing numbers of Afghans an entitlement to migrate to Britain.
It seems for at least the last ten years in Afghanistan our purpose there was setting up a future immigration program.
You can see why everyone conspired to keep quiet about it, even if you don't agree with that position. It's even a risk for the media which have reported it now if, for example, that grandmother mentioned by the BBC is now killed.
We know Governments do things they’d rather weren’t in the public domain and complete transparency is a myth. I can understand knowing what little I do why successive Governments acted as they did.
Had the initial data breach never occurred, we’d not be talking about this now but again it comes back to a central question which is what did or do we owe those who supported us in Helmand and elsewhere such as translators for example?
There are other questions about data ethics and security which are also immediate but do we essentially sacrifice thousands of people on the twin altars of cost and prevailing attitudes to immigrants?
It’s amazing (it isn’t) to see how attitudes have changed. In the mid-90s, there was widespread support for plans to encourage tens of thousands of Hong Kong residents to come to the UK before the handover to China but times have changed and the experience of migration this century has been a big part of that.
Re: Life after Starmer – politicalbetting.com
There was some discussion of strangulation yesterday"I have a particular set of skills."
Most stupid people would try to throttle the windpipe to restrict breathing; this will not be quick way to kill
Gripping the collar with both hands and crossed arms, squeezing the carotid arteries with the forearms will result in a much faster death

Re: Life after Starmer – politicalbetting.com
There was some discussion of strangulation yesterdayAnd good morning to you too.
Most stupid people would try to throttle the windpipe to restrict breathing; this will not be quick way to kill
Gripping the collar with both hands and crossed arms, squeezing the carotid arteries with the forearms will result in a much faster death

5
Re: Life after Starmer – politicalbetting.com
O/T
Andy Burnham crashed out of national politics fairly convincingly.
He has a fair sized job, seems to like it and is very secure there. Even with a massive swing against Labour, he has a strong personal vote.
Perhaps just as importantly, he has solid support within the Labour Party as Mayor. You can’t find a Labour member, left to right, who will say a bad word about how he’s done.
If he went back to national politics as leader, he’d have to burn that popularity down.
Andy Burnham crashed out of national politics fairly convincingly.
He has a fair sized job, seems to like it and is very secure there. Even with a massive swing against Labour, he has a strong personal vote.
Perhaps just as importantly, he has solid support within the Labour Party as Mayor. You can’t find a Labour member, left to right, who will say a bad word about how he’s done.
If he went back to national politics as leader, he’d have to burn that popularity down.
Re: Life after Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Former defence secretary Sir Ben Wallace said he makes "no apology" for stopping the reporting of a leak that revealed data about thousands of Afghans who had supported British forces.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1k8yvj89kyo
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1k8yvj89kyo
Re: Life after Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Too many Wallaces. Phonetically, I thought that you meant Wrong Trousers Gate.Can PBers be clearer when they refer to 'Wallace' in postings? I immediately start thinking there's been an important new development with No Underpants Gate.The Mail had an interesting tit bit they are under a second injunction that they are forbidden from discussing individual cases.I can’t find much mention of the Afghan story in The Sun. But this is one that will reverberate through WhatsApp and pub chats. Reform going in hard vs Jenrick and Braverman.It's cutting through - number 2 story on the BBC Most Read, which is my primary index of engagement. But Wallace has - admirably - stuck his head above the parapet, and the story is entirely about the cock up and an explanation of why there needed to be secrecy.
https://x.com/ziayusufuk/status/1945212705721192806?s=46
The sexual assault angle hasn't gone anywhere outside the Leonosphere. Yet.

1
Re: Life after Starmer – politicalbetting.com
One does not rule out the other.They only gave it 20+ years and a trillion+ dollars. The half-hearted, soppy fucks.I see Johnny Mercer blames the British State for the problem, but fails to mention who was in charge of the State at that time.Trump’s and Biden’s decision to cut and run was catastrophic. Not just for many Afghans, but for the message of weakness which it transmitted.
Mind you I was reminded of that pic of people falling off the US transport planes as they fled the advance of the Taliban. Who would take such a risk if the incoming future government were seen to be reasonable.

1
Re: Life after Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Not always.An is only correct where the h is in an unaccented syllable, so yes an hotel is correct but it's a hearing.Could she really not have known about this? And what is ‘an huge’ all about?Technically in formal English 'an huge' is correct, as is 'an hotel' 'an hearing' etc. H was for centuries treated as a silent letter, in effect a glottal stop, so it was common to take the vowel sound from after it (in some dialects it still is, of course).
I am shocked by the secrecy and cover-up over the admission of thousands of Afghans to Britain at the cost of £7bn to the taxpayer. A decision that was in itself wrong.
It is an huge betrayal of public trust.
Those responsible in both Governments and the bureaucracy need to be held to account.
thetimes.com/uk/defence/art…
https://x.com/trussliz/status/1945206550089314477?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
It's just it's very seldom used as it 'feels' wrong so I'm assuming it's a typo.
(This is your PB crazy fact for this morning.)
However if the h in huge is silent, it's pronounced yooge and y counts as a consonant
The vowel sound rule can be the reverse of the letter in both directions.
So you might go to "a university" to study chemistry where you might come across "an yttrium" chunk of metal.