Best Of
Re: Your afternoon watch – politicalbetting.com
Post-midnight, so now I have my photo quota back, this is one before/after shot from the actions of Israel in Gaza.
This is comparing March 25 2025 and July 4 2025. Checking the timeline *, the ceasefire was January 19, 2025, which Israel broke on Match 18 2025.
I don't know if anyone else has comparisons, but I'm thinking of cities deliberately demolished to expel their people and prevent return, after occupation has been achieved. I'm not even sure if Mariupol or Warsaw 1944 are in that category. What comparisons can we make?

There's a whole series of Geneva Convention breaches here. Netanyahu will imo have Trump's support, as he wishes to destroy the international rule of law.
BBC piece, with fuller analysis.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-33fccfbe-abcc-4af1-bdd2-632b2787cf59
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire
This is comparing March 25 2025 and July 4 2025. Checking the timeline *, the ceasefire was January 19, 2025, which Israel broke on Match 18 2025.
I don't know if anyone else has comparisons, but I'm thinking of cities deliberately demolished to expel their people and prevent return, after occupation has been achieved. I'm not even sure if Mariupol or Warsaw 1944 are in that category. What comparisons can we make?

There's a whole series of Geneva Convention breaches here. Netanyahu will imo have Trump's support, as he wishes to destroy the international rule of law.
BBC piece, with fuller analysis.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-33fccfbe-abcc-4af1-bdd2-632b2787cf59
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire

1
Re: Angela Rayner is in touch with the public (sadly they are both wrong) – politicalbetting.com
Or you could turn it around the other way. If you don’t pay Income Tax or NI you don’t get to vote.I had the idea that age shouldn’t be a factor when it comes to voting, and that a better way was to only allow those who had four GCSE’s at C or above (or whatever the equivalent is now, a number?). The downsides would be that it rules out those who are clever but not academically minded, and immigrants who didn’t go to school here , although going to night school or learning at home in order to get the vote might improve assimilationSure. As long as the people who don't get to vote don't get to pay taxes.
Re: Angela Rayner is in touch with the public (sadly they are both wrong) – politicalbetting.com
Medicine too. And probably Masterchef after recent events.Law is absolutely dominated by women though.There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment.He is analysing American data; you are discussing Britain. Trends may be the same but we'd need evidence. He is also basing his analysis on very short time periods.
I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged:
Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.
https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1946220407725384136
He has missed the wood for the trees here going down the AI rabbit hole. Girls have been outperforming boys at school, that leads to going to better unis / better courses e.g. medicine is a very hard course to get on, as is also clear from the example at the bottom, entry level at law firms is now dominated by women.
Re: Angela Rayner is in touch with the public (sadly they are both wrong) – politicalbetting.com
…
There was a minister being interviewed about something the other morning and she was asked about a major news story and she said she hadn’t read about it and didn’t know any info - it didn’t occur to Robinson or whoever was interviewing to say to her “you have come on probably the biggest daily political news programme and you claim not have knowledge of one of the biggest news stories of the day - did you not think, as a minister in the UK government it is important you should know the details?”.
Lazy, slack, messy country.
It’s a combination of a lack of curiosity and laziness. If you are ex head of SIS about to be interviewed about a subject, maybe mug up on the subject and check what you think is correct factually rather than just blagging it.This is quite something. The ex-head of the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service is interviewed by CNN about “Israel, Syria and the Druze”It must have felt a bit like this, being a politically-aware person in 5th century Rome, wondering how on earth you ended up being led by people who were wilfully incompetent.
He makes the crucial point that the Druze are Muslims
https://x.com/hearnimator/status/1945790676131512454?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Only problem, the Druze are not Muslims. How come I know that - and he doesn’t? He was the head of the SIS. His job is to know basic facts like this
We are absolutely screwed. We are led by idiots. In all regards
There was a minister being interviewed about something the other morning and she was asked about a major news story and she said she hadn’t read about it and didn’t know any info - it didn’t occur to Robinson or whoever was interviewing to say to her “you have come on probably the biggest daily political news programme and you claim not have knowledge of one of the biggest news stories of the day - did you not think, as a minister in the UK government it is important you should know the details?”.
Lazy, slack, messy country.

1
Re: Angela Rayner is in touch with the public (sadly they are both wrong) – politicalbetting.com
Trump seems to have lost what little mind he still possessed.
Trump sues Murdoch and Wall Street Journal over Epstein article
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c23g5xpggzmo
Even in the vanishingly unlikely event that he wins, the amount of dirty laundry that will be aired about him is going to be enormously embarrassing.
I suppose the question is whether his base will actually care. Very probably not given they're all even more delusional than he is, but if even just a few of them do that has alarming implications for the Republicans in the mid-terms.
Trump sues Murdoch and Wall Street Journal over Epstein article
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c23g5xpggzmo
Even in the vanishingly unlikely event that he wins, the amount of dirty laundry that will be aired about him is going to be enormously embarrassing.
I suppose the question is whether his base will actually care. Very probably not given they're all even more delusional than he is, but if even just a few of them do that has alarming implications for the Republicans in the mid-terms.

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Re: Angela Rayner is in touch with the public (sadly they are both wrong) – politicalbetting.com
Am I right in thinking 16/17 year olds can have sex with MPs but cannot vote for them?Piers Marchant was caught shagging a 17 year old in 1997. Unbelievably the stupid old creep put photos of her all over his election literature. When she spilled the beans her words were ‘I’m not old enough to vote but I’m old enough to know when I’m being used.’

2
Re: Angela Rayner is in touch with the public (sadly they are both wrong) – politicalbetting.com
For all those on here saying 16 and 17 year olds should not be allowed to vote because they do not possess the capacity to discern lies from facts can I throw a word into the pot? Brexit.I would be very reluctant to set any competency test on the right to vote, literacy and similar tests were widely abused to deny African-americans and other groups the vote in the past.
If lacking clarity and possessing an inability to assimilate facts from lies should deny a franchise, can I remind you all of those people who voted to leave the European Union due to their inability to assimilate facts from lies?
My conclusion? If 16 and 17 year olds are not up to the cognitive requirement for voting, should "Leave" voters also be removed from the electoral roll?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literacy_test

2
Re: Angela Rayner is in touch with the public (sadly they are both wrong) – politicalbetting.com
I genuinely despair at the basic intellectual capabilities of those who govern us. From the prime minister and the chancellor down, the military, the civil servants, the judiciaryThis is quite something. The ex-head of the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service is interviewed by CNN about “Israel, Syria and the Druze”Bit like head of BBC News not knowing the Hamas government and Hamas fighters are one and the same thing and both designated as terrorists.
He makes the crucial point that the Druze are Muslims
https://x.com/hearnimator/status/1945790676131512454?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Only problem, the Druze are not Muslims. How come I know that - and he doesn’t? He was the head of the SIS. His job is to know basic facts like this
We are absolutely screwed. We are led by idiots. In all regards
What if there is no vast conspiracy to ruin Britain, the simple fact is: they’re all morons?

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Re: Angela Rayner is in touch with the public (sadly they are both wrong) – politicalbetting.com
I am not liking the new look Vanilla. I can't see to read your posts, which of course could be advantageous for me. Nether can I see to write posts, which is advantageous to you.
Drinks all 'round!
Drinks all 'round!
Re: Angela Rayner is in touch with the public (sadly they are both wrong) – politicalbetting.com
Yes, apparently being 15 years old is no defence against being groomed into joining a terrorist organisation and having the citizenship of the country in which you were born removed.Its good that they are sober* enough to drive the MP home at 17.Am I right in thinking 16/17 year olds can have sex with MPs but cannot vote for them?But they can't buy them a drink. Or marry them.
*It is legal to buy them drinks, just not drink the drink themselves, unless cider accompanied by a meal etc.
There have always been different ages for different activities, so I find this a very poor argument against votes at 16.